Is it too late for Overall?

The Woodman · May 16, 2012, 12:07:56 PM

I'm about 1000 points behind the leaders. In planning my trades, I really need to decide now whether it's too late to go for overall. All my league games for the next few weeks are easy, so it makes this decision very hard. I have 16 trads left. Thoughts?

Rowan1812 · May 16, 2012, 12:55:16 PM

Im about 1000 behind the leader to. You can still catch overall but only if you have a lot of uniques and take risks with captain and trade lots to get your team good now and hope for luck with injuries. Have a look at the players that top teams have and try to pick uniques in order to catch them. Take risks

ScottieD · May 16, 2012, 03:05:13 PM

A lot depends on how well you've planned for the MBRs. Navigate these with only 2 bagels and no sideways trades, and you could catch up as much as 500 in rounds 11-13 alone. Then presuming you trade well and get a full premium team together, you're a chance. If you haven't planned well for the byes, forget it and focus on league.

tom_scully · May 17, 2012, 12:39:34 PM

Nup, unless you are top 100-200 you are stuffed, even that's being generous.. The tops teams already are stacked with premos and will upgrade faster than you can if you are that far behind.The planning for bye theory to make up points is BS IMO, because to do this you will have to have inferior premos eg avoid one of sccotland, goddard or deledio to get Thompson, etc etc etc. So the 500 points you make up in those rounds will be more than offset in the other 12 rounds where the leaders push further away from you. Concentrate on leagues. FWIW I am ranked 1500 about 700 points behind.

Sabretooth Tigers · May 17, 2012, 06:37:44 PM

;)
Have a look at the top 10 ranked teams, I just did. There's 16 rounds to go, which means all you have to do is outscore them by 62.6 per round to beat them. I'm further behind and still give myself a flukers chance. Never give up, the only certain thing about Supercoach is the uncertainty about scores and selections. Best of luck.

glam77 · May 17, 2012, 09:35:51 PM

often the folks at the top have traded pretty hard pretty early to get a premium team as early as possible.
throw in the mutli-bye rounds and a few injuries later in the year, in addition to clubs resting players in the last couple of rounds and anything can happen if you've kept a few trades up your sleeve.

ScottieD · May 21, 2012, 06:12:02 PM

Yeh I would have thought (without viewing the top teams religiously each week) that the cream rises to the top towards the latter parts of the season. I reckon there's 4 classes here:

1. The top sides early, are those with mid range players who are batting above their average and might not necessarily continue that form. The structure of these teams is not typically condusive to an elite team at seasons end.
2. Then come the sides who trade hard and early and get a full premium team together by round 9. If they get the selections right and get lucky with injuries I think this might be where the overall winner comes from...
3. The sides (like me) who want their cake and to eat it too. They want to win overall and their league, spending the majoirty of their trades early to get a strong team up n running for the season, whilst holding onto enough for LTIs and restings in the finals. If their rookies score well enough, these teams have a chance for overall, typically increasing their rankings as each week passes and sides in classes 1-2 come into trouble.
4. The league focused teams who always have more trades left than their competitors - but have no chance to win overall as they didn't get their side up n running early enough.

Slashers · May 21, 2012, 10:23:42 PM

Yep, MBR's will switch things up a bit!
A heap of teams have had to do it tough(er) with certain strategies in place. But these teams could make up quite a bit of ground during the byes.
How many teams could honestly say that only 2 donuts over the 3 rounds is a very real possibility?
Bring'em on!

upthemaidens · May 21, 2012, 10:54:19 PM

never give up never surrender....
.. just cause u dont get to the summit of mt. everest doesnt mean it wasnt worth the effort of trying..
i mean unless you are in a cash league, then big whoop u win a league so what. make the best team possible and even if u cant win overall atleast you'll have a better chance of winning a weekly prize

Samm79 · May 22, 2012, 02:37:44 AM

I give myself no chance. Sitting in 8,000th, 1,200 points off the lead at the moment. Made (marginal) ground on the leader two round ago with a score that was about 2,000th for the round. Lost ground this week with a weekly rank of 7,000th...

I think if you're not within 300 points, you cannot win the $$. You would need half a team of uniques and others to suffer massive injury loses to figure. That being said I want to finish as high as I can. A league win is not as good as finishing in the top 1,000 IMO, but each to their own..

ramrod · June 02, 2012, 11:09:31 AM

2 seasons ago I led up until round 14 and hung onto top 3 till round 18. I used a very aggressive trade strategy to get a premium team as fast as possible but ran out of luck with a number of key injuries destroying the season thanks mainly to kreuzer/hille and chapman missing a key game. Ended up finishing 22nd.

Last year after about round 7 i was ranked about 5000th and around 1200 points adrift of the leader. I used a much more conservative strategy with trades but rose steadily until I had some monster rounds from round 16-21 which catapulted me up to 13th and 200 points behind. Ended up finishing 56th or so.

In my opinion to win overall you have to trade aggressively early and hope that your luck holds up with injuries. For this year also to make sure your strategy compensates for the bye weeks.

Samm79 · June 04, 2012, 07:43:35 PM

Quote from: ramrod on June 02, 2012, 11:09:31 AM
2 seasons ago I led up until round 14 and hung onto top 3 till round 18. I used a very aggressive trade strategy to get a premium team as fast as possible but ran out of luck with a number of key injuries destroying the season thanks mainly to kreuzer/hille and chapman missing a key game. Ended up finishing 22nd.

Last year after about round 7 i was ranked about 5000th and around 1200 points adrift of the leader. I used a much more conservative strategy with trades but rose steadily until I had some monster rounds from round 16-21 which catapulted me up to 13th and 200 points behind. Ended up finishing 56th or so.

In my opinion to win overall you have to trade aggressively early and hope that your luck holds up with injuries. For this year also to make sure your strategy compensates for the bye weeks.

Those are some awesome years! How are you tracking in 2012?

tom_scully · June 04, 2012, 09:30:52 PM

Quote from: The Woodman on May 16, 2012, 12:07:56 PM
I'm about 1000 points behind the leaders. In planning my trades, I really need to decide now whether it's too late to go for overall. All my league games for the next few weeks are easy, so it makes this decision very hard. I have 16 trads left. Thoughts?

How'd you go Woodman? Did you make your assault?

ramrod · June 08, 2012, 10:22:50 PM

Quote from: Samm79 on June 04, 2012, 07:43:35 PM
Quote from: ramrod on June 02, 2012, 11:09:31 AM
2 seasons ago I led up until round 14 and hung onto top 3 till round 18. I used a very aggressive trade strategy to get a premium team as fast as possible but ran out of luck with a number of key injuries destroying the season thanks mainly to kreuzer/hille and chapman missing a key game. Ended up finishing 22nd.

Last year after about round 7 i was ranked about 5000th and around 1200 points adrift of the leader. I used a much more conservative strategy with trades but rose steadily until I had some monster rounds from round 16-21 which catapulted me up to 13th and 200 points behind. Ended up finishing 56th or so.

In my opinion to win overall you have to trade aggressively early and hope that your luck holds up with injuries. For this year also to make sure your strategy compensates for the bye weeks.

Those are some awesome years! How are you tracking in 2012?

Having a terrible year this year. Seemed to have picked all the players who got injured early this season - fyfe, mumford, goodes, murphy etc. At around 18K but have set myself up ok for bye weeks so expect to move up the rankings by the end of round 13. No chance for overall though obviously this season.