THE BYES - TIME is almost NOW! (DT)

[Colliwobblers]

OK so we have spent 7 weeks chasing cash cows, trading LTI's grabbing an upgrade or two along the way....

Have we given any real thought to the byes? Yes you say. Well lets see.

As an example I'll use my team to demonstrate what may lay ahead of you also, if you wish to avoid being showered with donuts.

Team: Colliwobblers. BOLD = KEEPERS   UNDERLINED = BENCH KEEPERS

DEF: Goddard (13) Delidio (13) Scotland (13) Ellis (13) Shaw (12) Dempsey (12) Clarke (12) Hargrave (11) Bugg (11)

DEF TRADES:

Round 12: Clarke - Waters
Round 13: Ellis - Round 11 or 12 bench rook keeper No guarantee there will be one if not too bad shouldnt need him anyway.

DEF DONUTS: Round (13) x 1.

That was easy, I have planned my DEF well, and the lack of rapid cashcows or viable downgrade options has prevented me from loading up on round 11 rooks as you will see in the other lines.

MID: Mitchell (13) Horsley (13) Swan (12) Pendles (12) Rockliff (11) Greene (11) Coniglio (11) Treloar (11)

MID TRADES:

ASAP: Greene - Ablett (13)
ASAP: Treloar - Round 12 Rook
Round 12: Round 12 Rook - Boyd (11)
Round 13: Horsley - Round 11 or 12 bench rook keeper

*NOTE: Keep in mind these trades are purely to set up for byes, very likely the players traded in will make little to no money before they are traded back out in a few rounds, if they did it would be a bonus.

MID DONUTS: Nil

RUCK: Maric (13) Sandilands (12) Big O (12) Giles (11)

RUCK TRADES: Nil

RUCK DONUTS: Nil

FWD: Franklin (13) Martin (13) Sidebottom (12) Beams (12) Dangerfield (11) D Smith (11) Adams (11) Kennedy (11) Dickson (11)

FWD TRADES:

ASAP: D Smith - Round 12 Rook
ASAP: A Kennedy - Round 13 rook

Round 12: Round 12 Rook - ROUND 11 PREMIUM (11)
Round 13: Round 13 Rook - Chapman(12)

*NOTE: Keep in mind these trades are purely to set up for byes, very likely the players traded in will make little to no money before they are traded back out in a few rounds, if they did it would be a bonus.

FWD DONUTS: Round (11) x 1

TOTAL TRADES USED = 10

Rounds 8 -11 = 4
Round 12 = 3
Round 13 = 3

TOTAL DONUTS EATEN = 2 (compulsory and pre all the bad things that we know will happen)

FINAL TEAM:

DEF: Goddard / Delidio / Scotland / Shaw / Dempsey / Hargrave / Waters (Bugg - new rook)

MID: Swan / Ablett / Pendles / Mitchell / Boyd / Rockliff (Coniglio - new rook)

RUCK: Sandilands / Maric (Giles - Big O)

FWD: Franklin / Beams / Martin / Sidebottom / Dangerfield / Chapman / Shermin? (Adams - new rook)

SO There you have it, an idea of the effort it is going to take to minimise the Donuts over the Byes. You WILL cop 2 TWO, minimum, there is NO way to avoid 2 of them without the use off DPP rucks, believe me I have and many others have done the maths.

The ONLY variation to my plans is the possibility of trading the round 12 FWD rook to another round 11 rook if one is available and then later upgrading either that rook or dickson to a premium to keep NOT from round 11, as the round 11 premium fwds are a level below the 12 and 13 options. Sherminater looking good tho.

This leaves me NO trades to use except for emergency LTI trades.

The thing to keep in mind is not only the trades you need to make but the cash you need to make the right ones, and when you need to have the cash.

My biggest concern will be upgrading to Ablett pre - byes AND having enought money left in the bank for 3 Round 12 upgrades.

Before the byes I am to downgrade 3 fattened cash cows to basic rooks and upgrade one to ablett. This needs to leave around $500,000 (maybe less) in the bank for my round 12 upgrades.

In Round 12 I plan to upgrade 3 rooks to Boyd, Waters and my round 11 premium fwd. This should cost around $500,000

My round 13 upgrade to Chapman is covered by the downgrades in defence and midfield also in round 13.

Looking at the numbers I am most likely going to need to downgrade coniglio to miles or another round 11 rook on the bubble in order to have the cash to pay for the 3 round 12 upgrades and Ablett before the Byes, this doesnt matter much as its just another rook over Coniglio who warms the pine and maybe provided cover for the back end of the season.

But it's one more trade I need to do before the byes and takes me to a total of 11 from now until the end of round 13.

Are you in better shape? Worse? Are you just starting to realise what lies ahead? Will you eat a ton of donuts instead and trade to best upgrade your team and preserve trades?

If your going for overall the above strategy is required? If your going for league wins maybe don't bother, write off the bye rounds and focus on the back end?

Happy planning :)

[Spite]

I have a slightly different strategy due to having rockliff and boyd so I need to DPP zorko in the middle with a playing round 12/13 premium for the first week. Means I can only have 1 round 11 bye player in my forwards so treloar to robbo and kennedy to shaw (DPP with smedts) and my team is set for 2 donuts in the bye weeks. However I may take up to 4 to conserve trades. I don't think it will cost me too much. I have to give up getting ablett now, he is too expensive and mitchell at 100k cheaper fits so well right now. If he is dominating, I may have to cop another donut just to get him in my team.

Good going Colli, hope you move up the rankings equally or slightly worse than me :P

[Scrads]

Very nice write up Colli :)
My one piece of advice which might help with your cash situation is when you are trading in round 12, rather than trying to bring in s round 11 premium to your forward line, maybe risk hoping that a round 11 forward rookie will be available (gws a likely source, maybe even Patton). To he honest, you could even probably afford to just save the trade and cop a 3rd donut, trust me everyone will be copping 4-8 of them :P

[Roy.G.Biv]

Great job Colli, as always!

I'll be copping my compulsory donuts in my FWDS in round 12, and DEFS in round 13.
(As per your original, "Bye planner sample," post way back on the 12th of Feb.  ;) )

[Colliwobblers]

Thanks Guys, yeah I lost the plot in my "planning" going after GWS rooks fwd and mid :)

I agree Scrads, I'm thinking overnight it may be best long term to just cop one or even two more.

If I decide to take an extra fwd donut it prevents me needing to do the trade (round 11 rook - round 12 rook ) then also the trade form the round 12 rook to the round 11 premium, and the same with the other round 11 rook i need to trade to a round 13 rook, then to the round 12 premium also 2 trades.

This bye donut avoidance is basically costing me 3 more trades than the same number of upgrades/downgrades would cost if ignoring the byes.

And those 3 trades all net me no guaranteed profit either. But they do replace a Donut...... my jury still out I think

[Justin Bieber]

I say flower the bye and come at me lol

Nah, like Scrads said I've left myself open to 3 donuts at the moment.

If I want to get Swan in before byes that 4.

I'll play it by ear, but have in the back of my mind that the bye are coming  :-X

Edit:  Not to mention the rucks... who knows what could happen there... probably going to cop 2 there alone  :-\

[Roy.G.Biv]

The thing I promised myself at the start of the year was to not comprimise my team over the MBRs!

So, I'm happy to save a trade and cop an extra donut.

E.g. At this stage, Morris hopefully is my round 13 donut, and my horrible selection of Sam Reid, (Syd) can be my rnd 12 donut.
(on current form that's 100pts loss for 2 donuts- that's the way I see it.) Thank goodness for D.Smith, as Reid was relegated to my pine & will stay there, & post his bye, can/will be upgraded. Hopefully he can produce a 60 or 70 in rnd 11.  ::)

So if I have to cop an extra donut because I have another rookie not playing, for the sake of 60-70pts I won't waste a trade to another rook, (who could be vested/have doubts on JS,) who could produce a 30. (Murphy's Law!  :P )

If I have the cash to upgrade said rookie, then great!

If I have to cop an extra donut for a premo that's out, unless it's an LTI, I will cop the extra donut, at the expence of this premo pumping out high scores for the rest of the year.
I could sideways to another premo who may average the same but again, he could have a stinker & at the end of the day seen as a wasted trade!

Trades in the run home will be, as we all know, worth  TWICE their weight in gold this year!  ;)

[Memphistopheles]

Hi Colliwobblers,

Sorry to hijack your thread but...

Can anyone actually tell me how the dpp ruck strategy works to avoid the doughnuts?

And, given the list of Ruc/For options (listed below) is it actually possible to avoid any doughnuts while still have 22 scoring players?

Also would having Sellar (Ruc/Def) help in any way?

All of the Ruc/For bar two have the bye in the same round.

Roughead (Haw) - Round 13
Hale (Haw) - Round 13
Lycett (WCE) - Round 11
Rowe (Car) - Round 13
Hamling (Gee) - Round 12
Lever (StK) - Round 13
Pattison (Haw) - Round 13
Staley (StK) - Round 13

Sellar (Melb) RUC/DEF - Round 12.

[Colliwobblers]

OK so the reason having DPP rucks saves you donuts is as follows.

You cannot bench 2 players from each round in your ruck because you only have 4 and you need to bench 6. The only way you can achieve this is if you have DPP rucks so you can switch players of different byes into and out of the ruck.

example; cox - sandi - giles - stephensen.

round 11: bench cox giles
round 12: bench sandi stephensen
round 13; no one to bench

so if you go into the byes with 30 players made up of 8 (rnd 11) - 11 (rnd 12) - 11 (rnd 13)

in round 11 you bench all 8 players with the bye (provided you have 2 round 11 ruckmen) as in example above

in round 12 you will need to make 3 trades to remove 3 of the round 12 bye players as you can only bench 8.

This works because also as in the emaple above you bench sand iand stephensen.

in round 13 you will need to make 3 trades to remove 3 of the round 13 bye players also leaving 8 - BUT you can only bench 6. As in the emample above you are benching NONE of your round 13 bye players in the ruck. (you don't have any)

SO you will have those 2 unbenchable players outside the ruck and score 2 donuts.

It doesnt matter which rucks you have or what setup you go into the byes with it works out the same, without DPP rucks you HAVE TO get 2 donuts.

You can go in 8-10-12 or 8-12-10 it makes no difference just different donuts, but no more or less.

You can also as a lot will go in with 10 in round 11 and take the 2 compulsory donuts in round 11.

NOW - How the DPP Rucks change this is that you can switch your ruck for a fwd or def of a different bye round in a manner which allows you to bench players from each bye round on the ruck bench every round.

this eliminates the 2 donuts that you otherwise CANNOT avoid.

e.g

Rucks: roughead - hamling - Sandi - cox

Fwds include - Hale - lycett

Round 11 - bench cox and lycett you switch with roughead and bench =2

round 12 - bench sandi and hamling = 2

round 13 - you switch roughead back into hte ruck and bench him with hale you switch in for hamling = 2

THIS allows you to BENCH 2 players from each bye round in the ruck each round, which with the right setup as in 8-11-11 allows you to totally avoid any donuts if you make the neccessairy 3 trades in round 12 and 3 trades in round 13.

Now given who the available DPP Ruckmen are it is totally irrelevant becassue having the available DPP ruckmen needed to mkae it work would cost you more in score that the donuts you avoid would.

But that's how it works :)

[Chopps]

that looks somewhat copied  ::) CW you are on top of this bye business, i have a bye plan written out thank to spite, if you had time wouldnt mind if you could see if there is a different strategy or improvements. (would be tough as spite has nailed it i think)

[Andrew]

I'm not sure if using 10 trades for the byes is worthwhile, my plan has me copping 5 doughnuts over the byes - if I've got the balls to do J-Mac to Ablett next week and committ to selling Horsely... A tricky trade but something must be done!!

Check it out here: http://www.fanfooty.com.au/forum/index.php/topic,60695.msg783008.html

[Lions01]

Nice write up again Colli (cheer worthy)

I'm looking at 3 Donuts with 5 trades hopefully, but I'm running a few more risks then you i.e Need Spurr, 5fer and Sexton to get games during the byes which maybe pushing my luck to expect all 3 to get games.

I really like your emergency players, you'll be able to gain some ground with them. I think this is where some of the top teams could really suffer, being they have upgraded for the best 22 and let the rest slip a little (i.e downgrading ripe rookies and being stuck with a Hall / Couch type player clogging there list (highest ranked team has both))

Few additional discussion points
1) What is the lowest rank you'd advise people to be so aggressive during the MRB, and go back to a more traditional way of upgrading as they're out of contention for the car ?
Personally Id be thinking you'd need to be in the top 3000 (equate to about 900 points behind the leader and 800 behind the main group) 

2) All things being equal what do you expect to score over the rounds ?
I think around 2000 a round would be a very good semi-achievable score, remembering a lot of our premos will be out

3) How far do you personally expect to climb the ladder or how many points off the leader is achievable ?

4) How many trades will you have left after the MRB ?
For me these last 2 two depend on how far away i am from the leader after this round, if i do choose to chase the car i will have 5 trades left but a set side with good coverage, thinking i most probably will chase the car.

5) Will you pull the pin on your aggressive trading come round 12/13 if your not closing the gap like you would like or anticpanted? For me i would look at the bigger picture, seeing if the top teams were going to take a hit in round 13, if they weren't id definitely pull the pin and save my trades and go back to a traditional way of upgrading.

[Colliwobblers]

that looks somewhat copied  ::) CW you are on top of this bye business, i have a bye plan written out thank to spite, if you had time wouldnt mind if you could see if there is a different strategy or improvements. (would be tough as spite has nailed it i think)

I have had about 4 other threads up since before the season startedon the exact bye strategy that minimizes donuts to the minimum of 2 (without DPP rucks).

There is no better or other way to do it. Whatever you do without DPP rucks you get 2 donuts if you have the right structure coming in and trade 3 times in each of round 12 and round 13.

I can link you to the threads if you want them but you sound like you have it sorted :)

http://www.fanfooty.com.au/forum/index.php/topic,48037.msg648333.html#msg648333

The original :)

[Colliwobblers]

I'm not sure if using 10 trades for the byes is worthwhile, my plan has me copping 5 doughnuts over the byes - if I've got the balls to do J-Mac to Ablett next week and committ to selling Horsely... A tricky trade but something must be done!!

Check it out here: http://www.fanfooty.com.au/forum/index.php/topic,60695.msg783008.html

answered your post in that thread :)

[Colliwobblers]

Few additional discussion points
1) What is the lowest rank you'd advise people to be so aggressive during the MRB, and go back to a more traditional way of upgrading as they're out of contention for the car ?

All comes down to whether going for overall or league if league ignore hte byes just make trades during them that you would be making anyway in upgrade downgrades in a sensible manner which helps eliminate any possible donuts. If going for overall, it comes down to how many trades you have if you have enough it doesnt matter where you rank you want the highest rank possible so use all 6 in 12 and 13 and get only 2 donuts. If your short on trades you won't have the luxury of wasted trades that only achieve missing a donut and no profit.

2) All things being equal what do you expect to score over the rounds ?

The average will be well down. 11 will be a normal round for MOST serious teams as they will have dealt with thier round 11 rooks by then and have a full team given most good premiums are 12 or 13 anyway.

Round 12 and more so round 13 will be where most teams have less premiums on the field. A donut is a donut but a donut from a premium rather than a rook is not just a donut, it is a donut + a rook score as against a donut + a premium score. So when people get donuts in DEF and FWD in 12 and 13 they will be getting donuts and also playing rooks.

Teams have tanked a whole round so there will be a large number of teams that will score 1600 -1800 in round 12 or 13 or even 11 but will be at near full strength in the other rounds so hard to say how the ranks and scores will be effected.

3) How far do you personally expect to climb the ladder or how many points off the leader is achievable ?

I don't expect to go up massively, over the 3 rounds I expect to go from around 8000 to 5000, maybe more, but my strategy is already revised due to trades i will be eating 3 or even 4 donuts now and making 2 to 4 less trades. Just don't have enough, but with 3 or 4 donuts I still expect a big climb in the ranks.

4) How many trades will you have left after the MRB ?

I have revised and I will get 3 donuts, maybe 4 and I will have 4 left after the byes for the season with a full field of elite keepers. Dangerous but 4 LTI in the back half would be unlucky. Soft tissue doesnt count just out for the season.

5) Will you pull the pin on your aggressive trading come round 12/13 if your not closing the gap like you would like or anticpanted?

I have already pulled the pin on it, the strategy is perfect if your season was perfect so far and you had 16+ trades coming into round 11. I started a few spuds too be different and had to fix those mistakes, i also had mumford, fyfe, and a couple of others to deal with so I just don't have enough trades to go into the byes and through them achieving the minimum two donuts, I will have to eat one more if my rook fattens in time, if not i won't short trade that last one i will take another donut and that would be 4.

Got to remember to fully avoid all donuts you have to make useless rookie trades just to change from one bye to another but to not make any profit from the trade, and you have to do it twice for each rook. So to miss 2 donuts you don't need 2 trades you need 4.

I don't have enough for that :)