What has changed this season which has let to greater midfield averages?

Started by Spite, May 13, 2012, 01:15:01 AM

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Colliwobblers

The two most liekly points already well made above.

1. The game is more contested, every coach talks about it and tackles are noticably up.

2. The sub rule means more TOG for the elites, that plus the spells FWD to rest and occassional extra goal / mark / kick as a result boost scoring.

wonder if the AFL is stupid enough to change the bench to 2 and 2 - BETTER GIVE US NEW RULES - allowing "the subs to be covered by an emergency! IF THEY DO.

sorry sidetracked, well they want to change it to 2 and 2 and if they did that would be significantly more TOG again, plus more fatigue so the elite midfielders would rack up tons of it late in the games when everyones tanks are empty and the game is wide open (what the AFL want)

dmagnus

The year is 7 rounds old, we'll see how many are over 115 by year end.

Also Swan and Ablett are not especially known for their tackling.

tbagrocks

Quote from: dmagnus on May 13, 2012, 03:28:11 AM
The year is 7 rounds old, we'll see how many are over 115 by year end.

Also Swan and Ablett are not especially known for their tackling.
Swannies hs of 171 he had 6 tackles (his highest for the year)
Abletts hs of 163 had 7 tackles (his highest for the year)

disco1992

Quote from: tbagrocks on May 13, 2012, 03:35:38 AM
Quote from: dmagnus on May 13, 2012, 03:28:11 AM
The year is 7 rounds old, we'll see how many are over 115 by year end.

Also Swan and Ablett are not especially known for their tackling.
Swannies hs of 171 he had 6 tackles (his highest for the year)
Abletts hs of 163 had 7 tackles (his highest for the year)
totally agree when they dominate they get tackles but funny this week only 2 tackles between them.
ablett didnt seem interested it putting in effort to lay a tackle

mpollock

Some reasons from my perspective:

1)  Two basically new teams (GWS and GC) ... and then Melb, Bris, WB area also absolute shower ... this means the key onballers playing these teams generally rack it up ... esp. if you have a good draw and play some of these sides twice!
2)  More rules (sling tackle, sliding etc) and new tactics (drop the knees or ducking) are perhaps resulting in more free kicks and hence more points for the guys in the guts ... note: haven't looked at the figures for overall frees but this is the feel i get from watching games this year
3)  SC/DT scoring system ... it appears doing something "special" is being rewarded even more this year then in the past
4)  Better stats keeping ... i think as technology improves less "stats" get missed like the little handball or knock on that counts as a scoring assist etc
5)  The short kicking game plan of the Hawks being copied ....
6) Perhaps players are becoming more consious of their stats given the mass popularity of SC/DT and don't mind milking some junk time more then in the past  :P

upthemaidens

the boring answer..   when dealing with averages, sample size makes a big difference..
few rounds have been played which will make averages askew.  really do need a larger sample size to gain a proper idea of if there is any significant difference from years past.

Nails

What I meant to say is...

You'll find this time LAST YEAR there were lots of players w/ 115+ ave that didn't finish with 115+ ave

for example in cricket a lot of cricketers average 80 w/ the bat after 5 matches, no-one except Don Bradman (to my knowledge) averages 80+ after 40 matches.

Last year averaging over 115 at this point last year I can already think of Mitchell and Watson averaged over 115 and Scott Thompson averaged over 113, Mundy 114, Cox 117.4...

And that's without even looking into it too much, mostly players off the top of my head.

Your theory is actually quite flawed.

DT87

Quote from: Nails on May 13, 2012, 04:29:51 AM
What I meant to say is...

You'll find this time LAST YEAR there were lots of players w/ 115+ ave that didn't finish with 115+ ave

for example in cricket a lot of cricketers average 80 w/ the bat after 5 matches, no-one except Don Bradman (to my knowledge) averages 80+ after 40 matches.

Last year averaging over 115 at this point last year I can already think of Mitchell and Watson averaged over 115 and Scott Thompson averaged over 113, Mundy 114, Cox 117.4...

And that's without even looking into it too much, mostly players off the top of my head.

Your theory is actually quite flawed.

Agreed. I did look into it, and last year after Round 6 there were 8 players averaging over 113 and 11 averaging over 111. Hardly any difference at all from this year. Considering how early it is in the season, I don't think we can say for sure if anything to do with midfield DT scoring has changed yet. Also note that Scott Selwood and JP Kennedy's averages will be well under 113 after this round, so barring a big score from one of Sandilands/Robinson/Hayes there will be 9 or less players averaging over 113 after this round.

One statistic that is fairly significant is that both Stanton and Ablett were averaging exactly 134.5 after Round 6 (and Stanton's average is even higher after his 140 this week), whereas last year the highest average after Round 6 was Dane Swan with 124.33. It will be interesting to see if Stanton and/or Ablett can keep up this kind of form and fitness for the whole year and break the record full year DT average (which I'm pretty sure is Swan with an average of 123.09 in 2010).

zeddyzed

Quote from: dmagnus on May 13, 2012, 03:28:11 AM
The year is 7 rounds old, we'll see how many are over 115 by year end.

Also Swan and Ablett are not especially known for their tackling.

Wrong...while Swanny is not a big tackler, Ablett avgs over 6 a game, and that is elite my furry friend ;D

Spite

Quote from: Nails on May 13, 2012, 04:29:51 AM
What I meant to say is...

You'll find this time LAST YEAR there were lots of players w/ 115+ ave that didn't finish with 115+ ave

for example in cricket a lot of cricketers average 80 w/ the bat after 5 matches, no-one except Don Bradman (to my knowledge) averages 80+ after 40 matches.

Last year averaging over 115 at this point last year I can already think of Mitchell and Watson averaged over 115 and Scott Thompson averaged over 113, Mundy 114, Cox 117.4...

And that's without even looking into it too much, mostly players off the top of my head.

Your theory is actually quite flawed.

With the info above, last year at the same time, 8 players averaged 113+. This year 11 players do. Statistically that is a very large increase.

Not only that, as also mentioned above, swan was the highest with 124.33... 134.5 by 2 players and swan is averging more than that. Thats a big difference. AND 6 from the 11 listed above have increased their average this week, with 2 players (murphy, simpson) still to play. Potentially 8 players will eclipse 115+ average. A very noticeable increase.

That was more of a summary of the last few posts, but it is easy to see that the theory is not flawed.

I originally posted that I am aware the same size is small (only 7 rounds) but there is an increase.

I like the idea's of mids being rested up forward and more stoppages = more tackles = more points. Especially with so many ruckmen injured, I can imagine the taps are as "quality" as usual, mids are getting tackled more maybe?

DT87

Quote from: Spite on May 13, 2012, 05:47:07 PM
With the info above, last year at the same time, 8 players averaged 113+. This year 11 players do. Statistically that is a very large increase.

Looking at the number of players averaging above a certain score is very statistically misleading, especially this early in the season. I could just as easily point out that only 4 players averaged 115+ after Round 6 this year compared with 7 players at the same point last year. If you look at that statistic alone and ignore all others it would appear that scores have actually been much lower this year.  :P

Last year the average score of the top ten players combined after six rounds was 117.22. This year it is 118.81. That's an increase of 1.4%. It would be interesting to see how that figure changes as the season progresses. If the figure stays about the same or even increases as the season progresses, then it probably is fair to say that there has been a change in the game that has resulted in higher DT scores.

Spite

Quote from: DT87 on May 14, 2012, 12:13:16 AM
Quote from: Spite on May 13, 2012, 05:47:07 PM
With the info above, last year at the same time, 8 players averaged 113+. This year 11 players do. Statistically that is a very large increase.

Looking at the number of players averaging above a certain score is very statistically misleading, especially this early in the season. I could just as easily point out that only 4 players averaged 115+ after Round 6 this year compared with 7 players at the same point last year. If you look at that statistic alone and ignore all others it would appear that scores have actually been much lower this year.  :P

Last year the average score of the top ten players combined after six rounds was 117.22. This year it is 118.81. That's an increase of 1.4%. It would be interesting to see how that figure changes as the season progresses. If the figure stays about the same or even increases as the season progresses, then it probably is fair to say that there has been a change in the game that has resulted in higher DT scores.

That is fair enough, I guess we should wait a few more rounds and see if that magic 1.4% has changed at all.

elephants

The most elite mids resting fwd for 2 minutes instead of benching it?? Ala Dane Swan style??