LaHug's Captains Round 7

[LaHug]

Hey guys,
I was a bit off last week but, hey, what can you do? I would like to point out that I donate my own time to do this weekly for no reward so negative feedback is not appreciated. If you want to use my FREE advice, feel free but make sure you remember the final captain choice is yours and yours alone. Don't blame me for your choice. Now, onto business...

Each week, I will do some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and taking a punt at their score for this week. If you have any requests, just ask away and I'll get to them as soon as I can!

The facts:

Mitchell
Last 3 weeks: 112, 63, 122 (99 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 113, 110, 90 (104 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 112, 95, 119 (109 avg)

Franklin
Last 3 weeks: 105, 71, 76 (84 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 127, 87, 103 (106 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 105, 118, 74 (99 avg)

Thompson
Last 3 weeks: 128, 138, 109 (125 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 89, 101, 97 (96 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 138, 109, 109 (119 avg)

Selwood
Last 3 weeks: 69, 130, 106 (102 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 84, 118, 104 (102 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 84, 118, 104 (102 avg)

Ablett
Last 3 weeks: 97, 162, 143 (134 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: N/A
Last 3 at Manuka: 5, 52 (29 avg)

Josh P. Kennedy
Last 3 weeks: 114, 149, 95 (119 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 119, 101, 52 (91 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 119, 63, 69 (84 avg)

Stanton
Last 3 weeks: 193, 77, 175 (148 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 109, 34, 110 (84 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 193, 116, 153 (154 avg)

Watson
Last 3 weeks: 134, 104, 100 (113 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 75, 127, 83 (95 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 134, 139, 110 (128 avg)

Rockliff
Last 3 weeks: 73, 128, 143 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 123, 104, 23 (83 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 128, 143, 61 (111 avg)

Swan
Last 3 weeks: 117, 171, 134 (141 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 119, 125, 122 (122 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 125, 79, 108 (104 avg)

Pendlebury
Last 3 weeks: 133, 113, 124 (123 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 94, 119, 129 (114 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 119, 135, 65 (106 avg)

Boyd
Last 3 weeks: 94, 115, 84 (98 avg)
Last 3 against North: 102, 145, 108 (118 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 94, 146, 116 (119 avg)

Murphy
Last 3 weeks: 94, 117, 114 (108 avg)
Last 3 against St. Kilda: 105, 98, 78 (94 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 94, 114, 103 (104 avg)

The thoughts:

Mitchell
Mitchell hasn't scored below 90 in his last seven against the Dees (dating back to '08) but his highest against them is only 117. His scores this year have been a little up and down but he has a good average and should do well against the Dees. Prediction - 110

Franklin
Like most KPPs, Buddy's scores are pretty up and down. This season, he's already had a 130 but has three scores of 70something to go with his three tons. He did pretty well against the Dees in his most recent game last year with a 127 but only had an 87 before that. It's impossible to tell with Buddy but he could be worth a crack. Prediction - 105

Thompson
Scotty is in really good form this season (particularly if you exclude that 57) but he doesn't seem to score well against the Cats. I wouldn't be risking him, even though he's done well. Prediction - 100

Selwood
Before that 84 (in a game where no Cats scored well), Selwood had three 118s and two 104s against the Crows. Bit of an interesting trend there but not too much to take from it other than that he should ton up reasonably well. Hopefully his week off has him all rested and he won't let us down with a late out again. Prediction - 115

Ablett
Firstly, I only put those Manuka scores in because they exist (from 2006 and 2003 and can't be bothered checking why the 5 is so low but I'm sure there's a reason). Anyway, if he comes back this week, he'll probably be underdone but you can't look past his form. His 97 against the Raines tag is pretty handy and that's by far his lowest score. IF he plays, he's probably a good option (but there's the risk of him being underdone!!!). Prediction - 125

Josh P. Kennedy
Kennedy has proven that he is amongst the elite midfielders in the competition this season and, with a best of 149 this season, has shown potential to be a good captain option. Surprisingly, this is the Swans' first game in Melbourne this season and he hasn't been so good at the G in the past. Still, this season seems to be his season and, if you're one of the lucky few with him in your team, he could make a good option. Prediction - 115

Stanton
After setting a new modern era DT record, I have decided I can't overlook this guy based on inconsistency any more! Sure, he scored a 77 against the Pies this year but, other than that, he has been amazing! That 34 against the Eagles was a shocking game by him and he was subbed at half time. Other than that, he has been pretty good against them and, at his beloved ground in the Docklands, he could have a big one. Prediction - 130

Watson
Jobe has been superb this season and has consistently scored tons. He has done well against the Eagles in the past but seems to be very up and down against them. At Etihad, where he also loves it, he should do well. Prediction - 115

Rockliff
Although he scored 73, you always predict a few low scores for Rocky. Ignore that 23, it was his first ever AFL game. Other than those scores, the numbers look good! Good form this season, good at the Gabba and good against the Pies. All signs point to a good score. Prediction - 125

Swan
I know he let a lot of coaches down last week but, seriously, look at those numbers and tell me you're not going to back him again! Averaging 141 in his last 3, 122 in his last 3 against the Lions (Pendles should get the Raines tag so don't be afraid), and he has done well at the Gabba in the past. Should be the best choice this week. Prediction - 130

Pendlebury
BEWARE THE RAINES TAG! He gave Ablett and Selwood those 97 and 61 scores you see above and he'll probably do something to stop Pendles. Still, the numbers are good. I'd definitely be wary but I still like him this week to do well. Prediction - 115

Boyd
Boyd has been pretty poor in the last few weeks but I have a sneaking suspicion that this will be the week he returns to form. He has been good against North in the past and has shown he can score big against them. This season, he has had a pretty nice return from his three games at Etihad. All the signs point to a good turnaround but, obviously, it's hard to back a captain that hasn't performed in the last few. Prediction - 115

Murphy
Mr. Consistent was not so good last week against the AFL bottom dwellers but that seems to have been the case a bit this season. The Saints are Murphy's worst team by a comfortable margin and his recent form against them hasn't been any better than his career form. He usually cops a hard tag and just can't seem to work out how to score against them. Not a good choice this week. Prediction - 95

The verdict:

1. Swan (130)
2. Stanton (130)
3. Ablett (125)
4. Rockliff (125)
5. Pendlebury/Watson/Boyd (115) - Can't separate them

Requests:

Gibbs - Requested by essendon2
Last 3 weeks: 85, 94, 77 (85 avg)
Last 3 against St. Kilda: 121, 121, 87 (110 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 85, 112, 144 (114 avg)

Gibbs hasn't done much to excite his coaches this season with 4/6 scores sub 100 and some of them shocking for a premium midfielder. His recent form would usually steer you miles away from even thinking about captaining him but his form against the Saints last year might make you think twice. He has only played at Etihad, his favourite ground, once this year for a dismal 85 against the Giants but he does love it there and usually rewards his coaches. It would take a very ballsy (or stupid?) coach to captain him this week but it could, potentially, pay off. Prediction - 105

Beams - Requested by essendon2
Last 3 weeks: 137, 121, 85 (114 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 107, 31, 80 (73 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 31, 46 (39 avg)

I was trying desperately to find a reason for that 31 and 46 and the only thing I could come up with was that they were two and three years ago, respectively. Let's be honest, if you were going to rate Beams by his form from 2010 and before, nobody would even think of having him in their teams. Last year, he scored a comfortable ton against them and, with his recent form, you could predict that again. Sadly, we have nothing to go by for how he will perform at the Gabba (his two big scores have been in Melbourne) but you wouldn't think the trip would affect him too severely. Still, way too much risk in my opinion. Prediction - 110

Rioli - Requested by Blues17
Last 3 weeks: 113, 68, 68 (83 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 93, 110, 71 (91 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 113, 59, 71 (81 avg)

Cyril has been crap this year and finally got a good score last week. Is that a sign of a turnaround? Hard to say but, fortunately for him, he's playing Melbourne this week so should be able to back it up. He's been pretty good against them in the past. Prediction - 100

Johnson - Requested by essendon2
Last 3 weeks: 163, 81, 92 (112 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 100, 66, 98 (88 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 100, 94, 93 (96 avg)

Is he back? Or was it a simple case of playing Melbourne at Kardinia Park? Either way, Stevie J has been pretty good against the  Crows in the past (four 90+ in his last 5) and, surprisingly, quite good at AAMI. Still, I wouldn't expect an explosion; he's never been huge against the Crows. Prediction - 100

C. Pearce - Requested by essendon2
Last 3 weeks: 99, 94, 109 (101 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 75, 65, 68 (69 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 94, 115, 16 (75 avg)

That 16 was sub-affected BUT he still made it to the 3rd quarter. Take out that one poor score and he's averaging over 100 this year. He hasn't been that good against Port in the past but he's been great at home this year. Tough to say how he'll go though... Not worth a captain look but, if you're using my research to find players worth trading in, this guy may well keep it up. Prediction - 105

O'Keefe - Requested by essendon2
Last 3 weeks: 105, 94, 58 (86 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 106, 103, 125 (111 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 106, 119, 23 (83 avg)

Two good weeks in a row sees ROK relevant again but, it gets better... Richmond are ROK's favourite team! He averages over 100 against them for his career (even when Richmond wins - like we will this weekend ;))! He also does well at the MCG (usually) with that 23 coming in a shocking game against Melbourne where he was tagged out of the game by Bruce. The big worry here is that, without Goodes, ROK is likely to get more attention from the Tigers. That being said, I think he'll continue his trend of doing well against them. Prediction - 110

Redden - Requested by windigo
Last 3 weeks: 112, 84, 74 (90 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 117, 61, 68 (82 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 84, 74, 105 (88 avg)

The Pies have been allowing points in the last few weeks and Redden's most recent game against them was impressive. He played well last week so his form might just be turning around. Prediction - 105

If you want me to look at another option, just ask in the comments!

[HappyDEZ]

LaHugs captain rundown. The likes of you & Colliwobblers put in good time. Estimate on Murphy please LaHug.

[Spite]

I can't believe that people boo you when you put in so much effort! I just cheer you whenever I see your name now haha

Good stuff, swan again this week for me :)

Also, I believe Selwood should be added to your number 5 pick (115 prediction) as well :P

[kilbluff1985]

considering Scott Thompson

[Spite]

LaHugs captain rundown. The likes of you & Colliwobblers put in good time. Estimate on Murphy please LaHug.

Murphy
Last 3 weeks: 94, 117, 114 (108 avg)
Last 3 against St. Kilda: 105, 98, 78 (94 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 94, 114, 103 (104 avg)

Murphy
Mr. Consistent was not so good last week against the AFL bottom dwellers but that seems to have been the case a bit this season. The Saints are Murphy's worst team by a comfortable margin and his recent form against them hasn't been any better than his career form. He usually cops a hard tag and just can't seem to work out how to score against them. Not a good choice this week. Prediction - 95

...unless you meant robert murphy :P

[ShaynoB]

Always helpful! Thanks mate but def Swanny for me.

[Alka]

I feel like Franklin could go bang this week, following in Stevie J's footsteps, and demolish Melbourne. Very tempted for him as a unique pick but I'll probably chicken out last minute.

[essendon2]

Gibbs and Beams please LaHug !  8)

[LaHug]

I can't believe that people boo you when you put in so much effort! I just cheer you whenever I see your name now haha

Good stuff, swan again this week for me :)

Also, I believe Selwood should be added to your number 5 pick (115 prediction) as well :P

Haha. The more people I put in that number 5 list, the harder it is for people to pick a captain if they don't have one of the top 4. I usually round to the nearest 5 and have Selwood at about 114 but the others at 116 :P
In all honesty, he may as well be on that list, I couldn't think of a reason that any of them should score higher than the others except for Pendles having the highest running average of the group but the other two are better against their respective opponents. Luckily (or, more realistically, sadly) for me, I have none of those 3 so I won't be making that kind of decision myself.

[Ricochet]

Great work as always LH. Cheered you

[LaHug]

Gibbs and Beams please LaHug !  8)

Done, mate!

Thanks for the support, everyone :D

[essendon2]

Gibbs and Beams please LaHug !  8)

Done, mate!

Thanks for the support, everyone :D

Just thinking of getting rid of Gibbs- wondering what you thought he was gonna get

[LaHug]

Gibbs and Beams please LaHug !  8)

Done, mate!

Thanks for the support, everyone :D

Just thinking of getting rid of Gibbs- wondering what you thought he was gonna get

I'd hold onto him. I think he *should* turn it around. This week he should score alright but I guess it's hard to tell in the long term. Maybe giving him this week as a last chance? What's his BE?

[Justin Bieber]

I'm thinking Pendles still

Boyd has been disappointing last two weeks  :-\

[Capper]

Im staying with Swan this week, even if GAJ plays