SJ or Beams

[Thunderstruck]

Beams by a country mile  8)

[jabroni]

beams will mantain his price and go up barring any injury or subs but stevie j will be up and down so while he shouldnt get cheaper, he will have a few more avg rounds so you should be able to pick him up after the byes for not much more than now

This will not happen.
His BE is 50 atm and his 163 will stay with him for the next two games
In two weeks time he will be atleast 40-50k higher
after that Geelong have Bulldogs, GWS, Carlton then a Bye
He will be over 500k after the byes

Correct but what if during the byes he has 2 off games like his start to this year then his b/e goes way up for 3-4 rounds and he will drop again another 50k

look at last year he would have a few huge games then a few avg ones - 6 games below 80 and another 5 at 80-100 and another 5 at 100-110 then the other 7 were pretty huge tbf

http://www.fanfooty.com.au/players/year.php?firstname=Steve&surname=Johnson&year=2011 <- stats from last year

[Zombie2.5]

Are you hoping to have both by seasons end? if you are, Stevie J won't get any cheaper so i'd get him at his price now, then get Beams later

This maybe, But Beams could average 110+ this season and what will he cost if he does average 100+ over the next 5 or 6?

Beams isn't a fluke have a closer look at the end of last year... Over the last month and a bit only Swan and one other in the whole comp averaged more than him.

yeah i cant remember who the other was, but I know there was only two  ::)

Yep Beams is a gun. And the other guy was Rockliff, he was gunning it and remember his like in a row 100+ scores from mid-way until end of the year?

Beams has age on his side, he'll improve. SJ is a gun, but he's a rollercoaster plus he got that 163 against demons cos he's got a good record plus he was playing mid with Selwood out. If Johnson plays forward a lot, he will be inconsistent as he would rely on goals or bad teams to get a big score.

Beams is definitely a gun, won't get rested and has all the advantages, worth the extra cash, unless you want both of them, then get Johnson now.

[Alka]

Beams hands down.

Stevie J will be up and down, and his big score was against Melbourne. Beams will score big in most games. He could very well end up the #1 forward.

[stew42]

Beams if you want the better, more consistent player.
Stevie J if you want to ride the cheapest, yet most thrilling rollercoaster in the league.

[mad dawg]

I wouldnt say beams is consistent? 74,93,85,121 and 137? Two good scoring games in a row still does not beat the fact that SJ has been pretty much the number 1 DT forward for the last few years. Both are good choices but SJ for me...

[Ricochet]

beams will mantain his price and go up barring any injury or subs but stevie j will be up and down so while he shouldnt get cheaper, he will have a few more avg rounds so you should be able to pick him up after the byes for not much more than now

This will not happen.
His BE is 50 atm and his 163 will stay with him for the next two games
In two weeks time he will be atleast 40-50k higher
after that Geelong have Bulldogs, GWS, Carlton then a Bye
He will be over 500k after the byes

Correct but what if during the byes he has 2 off games like his start to this year then his b/e goes way up for 3-4 rounds and he will drop again another 50k

look at last year he would have a few huge games then a few avg ones - 6 games below 80 and another 5 at 80-100 and another 5 at 100-110 then the other 7 were pretty huge tbf

http://www.fanfooty.com.au/players/year.php?firstname=Steve&surname=Johnson&year=2011 <- stats from last year

like i said his 163 stays with him over the next two weeks and he has (with last years stats you posted) Bulldogs (scored 143) then GWS (like GC last year... he posted 171 and 146) then Carlton (scored a 95 last year)

Im not saying he's not like every other player and can't have an off day but Stevie J is a proven gun and my point was that chances are very high he will not be at this price come the byes.

So if your aiming to have both Beams and Stevie J by seasons end, now would be the time to get Stevie J in my opinion

[HappyDEZ]

Thanks for all the input, I am still none the wiser, either of 'em are good FWD picks. Hopefully I make the correct decision & good luck all in your trades. Nobody likes getting their a** kicked by noobs. Good luck this round & in the future!!!

[langej]

Perhaps this may offer a little insight?

When deciding between two players that have relativly even 'pros' and 'cons' i go with the most consistent.  The reason being...

Lets say you have a team of 1 player and you have a choice of Travis Cloke or Adam Goods (2011) and, for arguments sake they average 95 and 90 respectivly.  You would initialy be inclined to opt for the higher average (Cloke)...  But if i told you that there scores were 160, 60 and 65 vs 88, 95 and 87.  You would actually only win 1 out of 3 of your league games.

Although i know this is an extreem example, it is to highlight the point that, assuming you are going for league victory, then consistancy is key.

If you are going for highest ranking then pick the player that will average the highest through the season.

Hope this helps (or sparks debate!).  ;)

[crabapples]

Completely agree avg's can b very decieving if u dnt look at every score