Bargain Ruck Theory 2010

[nick1408]

http://www.fanfooty.com.au/forum/index.php/topic,895.0.html

The link above is to my article at the start of the dream team season last year.  Please at least read the opening post before continuing so you have a feel as to what I am trying to get to work.  I was roundly ridiculed and abused for going into the season without a quality ruck (read: Dean Cox) and instead going in with four rookie rucks and redistributing the money into my midfield where I believe more value is to be had.

Last year was my first foray into following a theory with DT, and although I didn't end up going too well I stuck with my theory throughout the season.

My starting team last season was:

Backs: Goddard, C.Cornes, Malceski, Hodge, R.Houlihan, Raines, Hill (Petrenko, Suban)

Mids: Ablett, Bartel, Corey, Cousins, Swan, Boak (Anthony, Rich)

Rucks: Bellchambers, A.Browne (Jacobs, Spencer)

Forwards: Franklin, B.Harvey, Higgins, Skipworth, Ziebell, Ben Reid, Deledio (Sidebottom, T.Walker)

To start with I got hurt by swapping Braughton out for Suban, listening to Wallace and not going with Angus Graham in the ruck instead of one game Browne, Cousins hurt me, Bellchambers hurt me, Harvey hurt (low scores finished off by an injury) and Malceski hurt.  I also was forced to play with less than 22 on the ground a number of weeks but was still pulling in 1850-1950 those weeks and didn't really get stung until the last few rounds (the DT finals rounds).

The trading went as follows:

OUT Wright ($136,100)     IN Brennan ($308,300)
OUT Ross ($246,600)    IN Wilson ($75,300)
ROUND 18
OUT Petrenko ($140,400)    IN Gilbee ($315,400)
OUT Higgins ($345,900)    IN Riewoldt ($431,000)
ROUND 14
OUT Suban ($176,200)    IN Silvester ($75,300)
OUT Franklin ($273,200)    IN Chapman ($439,200)
ROUND 11
OUT Cornes ($347,400)    IN Lockyer ($373,700)
OUT Ziebell ($273,300)    IN Ballantyne ($86,600)
ROUND 10
OUT Walker ($212,700)    IN Wright ($86,600)
OUT Raines ($190,500)    IN Ross ($238,000)
ROUND 9
OUT Krakouer ($275,400)    IN McGlynn ($274,500)
OUT Hill ($251,500)    IN Grimes ($186,400)
ROUND 7
OUT Meesen ($148,800)    IN McIntosh ($358,800)
OUT Cousins ($364,000)    IN Coughlan ($176,400)
ROUND 6
OUT Harvey ($371,400)    IN Johnson ($406,400)
OUT Skipworth ($250,800)    IN Krakouer ($294,300)
ROUND 5
OUT Bellchambers ($176,000)    IN Meesen ($86,600)
ROUND 4
OUT Browne ($75,300)    IN Graham ($86,600)
OUT Reid ($156,800)    IN Brown ($115,100)
ROUND 3
OUT Malceski ($298,800)    IN Harding ($292,800)

So I feel the trading I did ok but not outstanding.  The one thing that did help was not selecting Cox as the injury bug hit him and a lot of teams.

This year is a bit interesting and requires a bit more thinking.  The lack of outstanding back and forward rookie options will make the whole selection process interesting.  At the moment my team looks like the following:

Backs:
Goddard, Hodge Buckley, Hurn, Drum, Waters, Ladson (Hunt, Sheppard)

Mids:
Ablett jnr., Gibbs, Stanton, Swan, Selwood, Trengove (Barlow, Kayler-Thomson)

Rucks:
Vickery, Lobbe (Trengove, West)

Forwards:
Riedwoldt, Brennan, Dangerfield, Knights, Polkinghorne, Veszpremi, Gumbleton (Rockliff, Tapscott)


The reasons I have picked some of the players are as follows:
Drum: I rate this bloke and feel has doe pretty well when given an opportunity but will he get a go at Geelong?
Waters/Dangerfield: Under an injury cloud both but as long as they can perform and I can upgrade I will be happy here.
Gumbleton:  I need a forward that is going to play and between him and Rusling I think these players are the most likely.
So right now before the actual DT positions are out are the following issues:
Goddard:  If he isn't a back Enright will come in here
Jack Trengove: If he is a forward he will play there and someone else will come into the mids
Bastinac/Cunnington: If they are named as forwards they will come in for Rockliff and Gumbleton
Bate/Wilkes/Adams: other options to come in but will really have to fit into my plans and available positions

Other issues are:
Gumbleton: Will he play?  If he doesn't and Rusling does there is a straight swap there
Buckley: I actually don't think he will play so my backup for him will be any of X. Clarke, Kennelly, Polak or Farmer
Drum: Same players as Buckley are options as is Hunt on the bench.
Both Drum and Buckley not playing: Hurley, Drummond, Geary or Pettard and a rookie will come in.

So this should have all my dilemas covered.

The rucks I have picked are for the following reasons:
Vickery: I feel he will play for Richmond all year alongside Simmonds and will hopefully build on his $200,000 starting price.
Lobbe/Trengove: One will play for Port but both will get a go so one will start on the ground and one will start on the pine
West: Someone has to back up Ottens and I feel West will get an early go at that. 

I have waivered a touch this season to include Vickery.  Originally I also had Hille but Now that it is speculated that he won't play until towards round 9 I feel it is prudient to have an extra rookie ruck who I can trade out for Hille when he becomes available.

So the first part of the theory is complete.  The next bit is where real planning and self control comes in.  Trading.

What needs to happen here is I need to decide who are the keepers and who are the non-keepers and the possible keepers.  Some are obvious and here is my current list:

Keepers:
Goddard, Hurn, Hodge, Ablett jnr., Gibbs, Swan, Stanton, Selwood, Trengove (this year's Rich in my opinion), Riedwoldt, Brennan, Knights.

Non-Keepers:
Barlow, Kayler-Thomson, Lobbe, Trengove, West, Gumbleton, Tapscott

Possibles:
Hunt, Rockliff, Ladson, Vickery, Sheppard, Polkinghorne, Veszpremi, Drum, Waters, Dangerfield, Buckley

So the imediate thought here is that I have too many players who I want to get rid of.  If I need to get rid of all my keepers and possibles then that leaves me with only two trades, which could really hurt when injury strikes.  I honestly don't think this will happen but it is definately something I need to keep in mind.

To sumarise, This theory is that rucks are not worth the money due to more inconsistantcy than the average player.  Yes, they can have blinders but their poor games tend to be very poor that is why I have chosen to redistribute the money saved here to upgrade a mid player to a premium to hopefully make a more consistant player.

I am sort of hoping people will open their minds and see this for what it is: an option that I have chosen to play and an option for others to tinker with if they choose.

I will follow this up further with my final team selection when DT opens.

[Prospector_1]

Great post Nick, good luck.

[DWEBBY5]

nice

[Torress]

massive post!!!!!  all good tho haven't finished reading it yet lol ;D

[nick1408]

I should have said that last years post probably gives the best indication as to why I am doing this and this year's post sort of polises the idea

[Torress]

righto i just fin reading it... yea feel similar but im starting either cox or sandi with 3 rookies.. these 2 aren't inconsistent like others - esp cox
kreuzer may be as consistent as cox this year - i'd say have one elite ruck?? but i see where u are coming from- although i swear i read recently that forwards are statisically the most inconsistent out of each of the 4 positions - guess the FWD pool is much larger than the ruck pool which contributes to that being the case...

[nick1408]

righto i just fin reading it... yea feel similar but im starting either cox or sandi with 3 rookies.. these 2 aren't inconsistent like others - esp cox
kreuzer may be as consistent as cox this year - i'd say have one elite ruck?? but i see where u are coming from- although i swear i read recently that forwards are statisically the most inconsistent out of each of the 4 positions - guess the FWD pool is much larger than the ruck pool which contributes to that being the case...

I tend to agree with you, Torress.  Forwards are incosistant that is why I only went with one key forward in Riedwoldt and the rest are small forwards/mids and as such I think they will see a lot more posessions and as such you are not looking for your key position player to kick minimum of four goals every week

[Torress]

for sure the mid sized FWDS are def the go from start of season - and the ones who rotate thru the mid being the best buys. prob is most of the good ones (mid rotating FWDS) are all very expensive ie. didak, davis, lids (must have), ect. look for the big timber half way thru season seems to be the go - ala goodes, maybe petrie, brown

ah im in DT!!!!  ahhhh i'm not doing DT anymore it annoys me - SC is alot better

[DWEBBY5]

lids only named as a mid:(
:'( its hurt me

[boooyaaa]

i read your post last year and was very interseted to see how it panned out. i half tried ur approach and started with cox and jesse white as my ruckman.

you're right in saying that premium mids have alot of value but then again i drather be starting cheap midfielders than cheap rucks as they should score more.

for example;
YOUR TEAM
selwood - 497,200 - avg. 100
stanton - 469,300 - avg. 100
vickery - 208,700 - avg. 50
lobbe - 90,700 - avg. 40

These ae just my predicted averages but from these selections you should score a total of roughly 290 points per week at the total cost of $1,265,900.

However if you took the option of having better rucks you could possibly choose;
palmer - 293,800 - avg. 85
martin - 150,700 - avg. 65
sandilands - 444,200 - avg. 95
kreuzer - 349,700 - avg. 80

Taking this path you should be able to score 325 points per week (35 more than i beleive your players will score) at the total cost of $1,238,400 (spending $27,500 less than your team).

So my thinking you would make more points, spend less money, and have players with less risk of being dropped.

cheers. good luck if u stick with your theory

[nick1408]

Hmm, that is an interesting way to look at it as well. 

I don't think Kreuzer will peak this year at 85 as I think Warnock will take the #1 ruck spot.  Why else would Carlton spend big on him when they knew they had Kreuzer at #1 pick anyway?

Just my opinion though.  I do like the idea you posted though

[shog]

Hmm very interesting.

Personally, I don't buy it. Basically your exchanging two centre rookies for  2 ruck rookies. One would think that centre rookies would score more than ruck rookies so you could be down 30+ ppg from the get go. Frankly, you don't discuss WHY this strategy is superior and just pad out your post with meaningless discussion.

But good luck with it.

[nick1408]

Frankly, you don't discuss WHY this strategy is superior and just pad out your post with meaningless discussion.

I'm not trying to provide a superior stratergy, just another way of playing.

My original post from last year (link in OP) was supposed to provide my reasoning.  Obvisually it doesn't so I'll try and think up some better way to explain it.

The reasonn I went for the ruck rookies over the centre rookies was I feel the 30+ppg that I lose by not having the centre rookies is made up by having 5 premium mids instead and a slight upgrade to a forwards and backs as well.

[StuL]

I think u need at least one quality ruck cos theres plenty of points to be had from a good one. If u only have chumps in the ruck u better hope u are making up for it in another part of the ground.

[nick1408]

If u only have chumps in the ruck u better hope u are making up for it in another part of the ground.

Spot on Stu.  That is exactly what I am going for