LaHug's Captains Round 6

[LaHug]

Hey guys,
Each week, I will do some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and taking a punt at their score for this week. If you have any requests, just ask away and I'll get to them as soon as I can!

The facts:

Boyd
Last 3 weeks: 115, 84, 146 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 89, 107, 143 (113 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 146, 116, 155 (139 avg)

Swan
Last 3 weeks: 171, 134, 109 (138 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 96, 157, 128 (127 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 134, 137, 94 (122 avg)

Pendlebury
Last 3 weeks: 113, 124, 62 (100 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 87, 101, 136 (108 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 124, 107, 103 (111 avg)

Watson
Last 3 weeks: 104, 100, 94 (99 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 71, 58, 103 (77 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 139, 110, 116 (122 avg)

Stanton
Last 3 weeks: 77, 175, 93 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 89, 88, 73 (83 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 116, 153, 98 (122 avg)

Selwood
Last 3 weeks: 69, 130, 106 (102 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 178, 110, 131 (140 avg)
Last 3 at Skilled: 130, 100, 135 (122 avg)

Mitchell
Last 3 weeks: 63, 122, 95 (93 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 61, 95, 90 (82 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 95, 119, 130 (115 avg)

Murphy
Last 3 weeks: 117, 114, 139 (123 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: N/A
Last 3 at Etihad: 114, 103, 116 (111 avg)

The thoughts:

Boyd
Before that 89 against the Magpies last year, Boyd had scored 5 straight tons against them. Boyd has also tonned up in his last 7 games at his favourite ground, Etihad. In the last 3 seasons, he has scored 22 tons out of 26 games at Etihad, expect another! There are still questions being asked about the Pies and they have given up 25 tons in 5 games this season (some of them huge tons to opponents we wouldn't expect that from). I know he didn't smash the Giants like we'd hoped but he should be big against the Pies. Prediction - 135

Swan
What do you get when you take one of the best footballers in the game and question his fitness? How about 42 disposals and 3 goals in a BOG performance?! Similarly to Boyd, before his 96, Swan massacred the Bulldogs with scores of 143, 128 and 157 in 2010. He also loves Etihad with 8 of his last 9 being tons (a 94 ruining his run) and 5 of his last 6 at 134 or higher. Although he proved his point last week, I'm sure he'll play like he has more to prove. He has reclaimed his crown as DT King from GAJ (it helps when Ablett's not playing); expect something huge. Prediction - 145

Pendlebury
Essentially, take Swan's scores against the Bulldogs and at Etihad and then shave a nice, healthy chunk off of them. Sure, you can expect a safe ton, but he's the third best option from this game at best. Prediction - 110

Watson
Pros: Loves Etihad, no Raines. Cons: Average form (at best), sucks against the Lions, rarely scores captain scores... I only put him here because people keep requesting him week after week after week. Prediction - 100

Stanton
He also loves Etihad and sucks against the Lions. He has also been very up and down this season. The big advantage he has over Watson is that he is capable of scoring something huge. I don't see that happening this week though. Prediction - 105

Selwood
Raines stopped him last week but Raines has been stopping everyone... Let's look past that game and note that, last season, Selwood destroyed the Dees for 178 points, capping off 5 straight tons against them. He also loves Skilled with 11 out of his last 12 there being tons. If Melbourne had turned things around since last season, I wouldn't be so sure of a big score but, frankly, they haven't (although I don't expect another 200 point loss). Prediction - 135

Mitchell
Last week's score was more along the lines of what I expected to see this week. Mitchell doesn't like playing the Saints, not being able to handle the Jones tag. Don't expect anything special from him this week (for those that don't have Mitchell, expect another yummy price drop). Prediction - 90

Murphy
Still plugging along consistently, Murphy has basically been a certainty to give you 115 points per game this season. This week, you'd expect a little more against the league bottom dwellers, the Giants. Having never played against them before, the best comparison would be his 129 against the Suns last season. Don't consider the GWS game as a certainty for a big score (see Boyd last week) but he should still be above average. Prediction - 125

The verdict:

1. Swan (145)
2. Selwood (135)
3. Boyd (135)
4. Rockliff (125)
5. Murphy (125)


Requests:

Cotchin - Requested by PowerBug
Last 3 weeks: 110, 105, 110 (108 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 65, 114, 83 (87 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 84, 83, 86 (84 avg)

Cotch is in pretty good form right now and it's hard to judge his past numbers considering his age. Still, AAMI Stadium can be a hard place to walk into so don't expect anything too huge. Prediction - 105

Foley - Requested by PowerBug
Last 3 weeks: 109, 85, 125 (106 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 121, 75, 102 (99 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 76, 75, 35 (62 avg)

Also, in good form, Foley has better scores against the Power. However, his scores at AAMI at poor, making it one of his least favourite grounds. I still think he'll do alright though. Prediction - 110

K. Cornes - Requested by PowerBug
Last 3 weeks: 98, 114, 100 (104 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 56, 87, 108 (84 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 98, 100, 97 (98 avg)

Kornes is back to DT relevance and is pumping out 95-105 scores consistently. Seems to have not enjoyed playing the Tigers in the most recent games but he should keep up the consistency with this year's Port team. Prediction - 100

Hayes - Requested by T Dog
Last 3 weeks: 115, 112, 126 (118 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 136, 113, 88 (112 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 115, 65, 107 (96 avg)

The Hawks are his favourite team with 6 of his career 8 against them being tons and a career 105 average. He continued his love for the MCG last week making it 7 of his last 8 there being tons. They're some pretty good numbers to go with his nice recent form. Great POD captain if you want to take a gamble. Prediction - 120

Rockliff - Requested by makita/essendon2
Last 3 weeks: 128, 143, 91 (121 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 117, 94 (106 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 110, 95, 91 (99 avg)

Seems to be getting the ball a lot again now that Brown is in the Brisbance forward line. His two career games against the Bombers have been pretty decent and he hasn't scored below 91 in his 7 career games at Etihad. Considering no Raines, Brisbane will likely just go head to head with the best of the Bombers midfield which usually bodes well for good ball winners. Prediction - 125

Robinson - Requested by essendon2
Last 3 weeks: 106, 102, 127 (112 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: N/A
Last 3 at Etihad: 66, 95, 95 (85 avg)

Robbo is having a good season thus far but, like all other Blues, has no stats against the Giants to go by. He was pretty poor at Etihad last season but he should be fine against the Giants (just not sure how good). Prediction - 110

Broughton - Requested by essendon2
Last 3 weeks: 88, 92, 109 (96 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 149 (149 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: N/A

Broughton smashed the Suns last year but, as always with this guy, consistency is a risky thing to assume. The Ablett-less Suns put up a great fight against the Roos last weekend and they may keep fighting. Still, you'd have to assume something good is more likely to come than something bad. Prediction - 120

Franklin - Requested by Chelskiman
Last 3 weeks: 71, 76, 118 (88 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 125, 117, 55 (99 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 118, 74, 130 (107 avg)

Buddy has had a bad last two weeks and his owners will hope he's going to turn it around soon. Back at the MCG where he usually performs against a team he usually scores well against, this could be the week. Don't expect anything huge (you can never be certain with a KPP) but I think he'll start tonning up again. Prediction - 110

Josh P. Kennedy - Requested by nickstiges
Last 3 weeks: 149, 95, 94 (113 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 66, 92, 98 (85 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 95, 111, 64 (90 avg)

After getting his first huge DT score of his career, Kennedy has proven his capabilities. However, I don't think this is a good enough reason to suddenly consider putting him captain. A 94 and a 95 preceded his big game and that's more likely to be the score you're going to get. Prediction - 95

Goddard - Requested by nickstiges
Last 3 weeks: 58, 89, 112 (86 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 54, 109, 146 (103 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 58, 94, 56 (69 avg)

Hard to think anyone with this recent form could be even worth looking at. Comfortably contained by Jordie McKenzie last week and he couldn't get near the pill when he played the Hawks last year. Probably not going to be as horrible as those numbers suggest but I wouldn't be taking a punt on him. Prediction - 95

Deledio - Requested by nickstiges
Last 3 weeks: 101, 103, 109 (104 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 95, 68, 108 (90 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 82, 108, 91 (94 avg)

Lids is having a great year and is likely to continue it against the Power. That being said, like a lot of the above, it's unlikely he'll have a huge game. He had a 142 against the Power in 2007 (showing that a big score is possible) but backed it up with a 51 in 2008. I wouldn't take risks like this when there are big midfield options that should do well. Prediction - 105

Martin - Requested by nickstiges
Last 3 weeks: 105, 96, 64 (88 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 63, 91, 71 (75 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 104, 71, 54 (76 avg)

Hard to take a heap from the numbers of a player only in his 3rd season but his form this season hasn't been all that flash either. He didn't do well against Port last year and only has one ton this season. Prediction - 90

Duffield - Requested by essendon2
Last 3 weeks: 87, 82, 117 (95 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 60 (60 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: N/A

Didn't do much against the Suns last year and had no excuses. He's not always very consistent but has been better this year. I wouldn't give him the label "captain material" ever and, despite playing the Suns without Ablett, I don't think this week is any exception. Prediction - 90

If you want me to look at another option, just ask in the comments! Note: I will not be doing any more Carlton players (read comments to see why).

[PowerBug]

Could you do a couple of Tigers for me??

Trent Cotchin and Nathan Foley please :)

EDIT: And Kane Cornes aswell thanks. :)

[stew42]

Great work! No requests for me, keeping it safe with Swannie for captain this week.

I don't really see Pendles as a captain option for any week. When you pick him for Rnd 1, you pick him for his consistent 110s, not 140s. I reckon Murphy fits into this category now as well. Swan and Ablett are the dudes you pick for el capitano.

Also should note the risk of Murphy being rested... and Mitchell looks to be the upgrade of the season!

[T Dog]

very fine work there LaHug. Is Lenny Hayes worth a sneaky look as a POD captain this week?

[Justin Bieber]

What if I have non mentioned :o

Well it's either Selwood or Boyd for me. I'll see what Calvin Arrr says.

[makita]

nice write up. can u do the stats on rockliff. cheers

[danger]

Murphy is locked for me.. unless he is rested, then he is unlocked..

I remember during the pre-season 2 people commented to me that changing captains was crazy and I would be screwed if I did that. I should set and forget, they told me.

God I wish I could remember who they were.

Flowering retards, part of the challenge is having the skills to pick who is up for a massive week.. that is obviously made easier when you have a champ like LaHug helping you out  ;)

[LaHug]

Could you do a couple of Tigers for me??

Trent Cotchin and Nathan Foley please :)

EDIT: And Kane Cornes aswell thanks. :)

Done

very fine work there LaHug. Is Lenny Hayes worth a sneaky look as a POD captain this week?

Nice pick up! Done

[Justin Bieber]

Judd, Scotland, Simpson, Gibbs, Waite, Betts, Garlett, Armfield, Thornton. They whole Blues team

All will score 100, just which ones will top the game?

[danger]

Judd, Scotland, Simpson, Gibbs, Waite, Betts, Garlett, Armfield, Thornton. They whole Blues team

All will score 100, just which ones will top the game?

Did you deliberately leave Murph off that list? Please don't be rested!

[essendon2]

Rockliff, Robinson, Broughton if you could, thanks mate  :)

[Justin Bieber]

Judd, Scotland, Simpson, Gibbs, Waite, Betts, Garlett, Armfield, Thornton. They whole Blues team

All will score 100, just which ones will top the game?

Did you deliberately leave Murph off that list? Please don't be rested!

Nah cause Murphy is there and left Robbo off cause essendon2 posted Robbo then deleted his comment.

[danger]

Judd, Scotland, Simpson, Gibbs, Waite, Betts, Garlett, Armfield, Thornton. They whole Blues team

All will score 100, just which ones will top the game?

Did you deliberately leave Murph off that list? Please don't be rested!

Nah cause Murphy is there and left Robbo off cause essendon2 posted Robbo then deleted his comment.

Aaaaahh yep, fair 'nuff

[essendon2]

Judd, Scotland, Simpson, Gibbs, Waite, Betts, Garlett, Armfield, Thornton. They whole Blues team

All will score 100, just which ones will top the game?

Did you deliberately leave Murph off that list? Please don't be rested!

Nah cause Murphy is there and left Robbo off cause essendon2 posted Robbo then deleted his comment.

lol didn't mean to ^^^

[LaHug]

nice write up. can u do the stats on rockliff. cheers

Rockliff, Robinson, Broughton if you could, thanks mate  :)

Done :)