Operation 'Get Swan' begins.

[-Hector-]

Gentlemen (and ladies),

I understand that it is part way through a round, however I am already planning ahead to next week and my plan to 'Get Swan' in to my team. He's really hit form, looks fully fit and won't be this price (not that I know his exact price yet) for a while.

Here's my thinking:

This week:
1. Kennedy (in the forwards) to Treloar - this trade is highly likely and will probably happen regardless.
2. Magner to McDonald - leaning towards not doing this at this stage but would also help me keep some cash in hand and McDonald if I'm not mistaken will most likely play every week for GWS barring injury or suspension.

Next week:
1. Ebert (had him since the start) to Swan.

Booya!

On another note and as briefly mentioned above, can we accurately predict Swan's price rise from his massive score this week? His break even was around 140 wasn't it.. A 170 should up his price a little.

[fertalong]

I wouldnt... Ebert is doing so well. Surely you have more pressing issues in your team that need changing.

[BlackMamba]

Also be careful with McDonald, they said at the start of the year he won't be playing all games (not sure how the suspension affects this, but I would assume he will get rested at some stage).

Swan will go up around 17k
http://www.fanfooty.com.au/game/newprices.php?id=4037

[Justin Bieber]

Yeah Swan went up 17k, but I'm still not interested in Swan just yet. I'll jump on board when he gets back from Arizona :)

[tigers123]

Sorry mate i'd have to say i don't like that at all  :'( don't mean to be harsh or anything but it seems a bit trigger happy on the trades... so just hear me out, just trying to help you :)

1. Kennedy -> Treloar: Don't mind it, was considering it myself but I had dickson in my team still so i ousted him for treloar... Kennedy still has some money making to do (providing he's not dropped), and with a reasonable score of about 70 (which is possible) his BE will shoot down again and he'll be looking good for a bit more of a price rise...

2. Magner -> Jmac: Do not like it at all... Magner gunned it in the first two rounds and has been a bit below par since then, I'll give you that for sure... But he could still potentially rise 100K+, meaning that you are wasting a trade a long way before he has fully fattened.

3. Ebert -> Swan: Not a huge fan of it either, but it's your decision in regard to keepers/offloaders... Ebert has done very well so far, so I wouldn't be considering trading him just yet... I would conserve my trades if i were you. Yes Swan is a massive GUN but trades are finite.

All in all, I look at this as a very short-term and narrow-minded trade. Yes, I'd love to have swan in my team as well, but I wouldn't be doing it in this manner. Instead I would look to offload any non-playing rooks, and then wait for my playing rooks to fatten up to their full potential and trade them when their BE's exceed their Ave.

On another note and as briefly mentioned above, can we accurately predict Swan's price rise from his massive score this week? His break even was around 140 wasn't it.. A 170 should up his price a little.

Plus, Swan is priced at 580K now which is a huge amount, wait until after his bye and there is every chance he will have deflated a bit...

Hope this helps you out mate, but if i were you I would sit tight and hold my trades for now... Except the kennedy -> treloar one which I'm not completely against :)

[nickyt]

I wouldnt... Ebert is doing so well. Surely you have more pressing issues in your team that need changing.

Mate just to add to what has already been said above, Ebert is going really well, better than every rookie available. I don't mean to judge your strategy, but I would have thought the whole point of getting decent mid-pricers (near premiums), such as ebert is to keep them in until all the on-field rookies are gone. This means that once you have upgraded all on field rookies, then, and only then, would you consider upgrading someone like ebert (depending on trades left etc.). He has much better JS and scoring each week, so has to stay imho. He's also (arguably) less likely to get injured. The rookies are definitely more pressing in terms of concern at this point. If it takes you one or two extra weeks to upgrade a rookie to swan (still fattening/need to downgrade to free up enough cash), as opposed to ebert to swan, then this is not the end of the world. Swan + Ebert is better than Swan + a rookie, which is what you will end up with if you 'knee-jerk' trade next week. I don't know about you but i would feel much more comfortable with ebert on-field over a rookie. It will likely cost you one more downgrade trade early in the season to achieve it, however ebert will average more than any midfield rookie for the period of time he is still in your team, will play more games and you will be able to upgrade ebert more easily than a rookie later on as he will likely be worth much more. This is where you should get that early downgrade trade back.

Ebert is fit and scoring well so not the best option to get rid of yet, even just for that reason alone!

Sorry for writing a thesis  ;D but to sum it up in two words, KEEP EBERT!!!  ;)

[TMurphBROWNLOW]

I wouldnt... Ebert is doing so well. Surely you have more pressing issues in your team that need changing.

Mate just to add to what has already been said above, Ebert is going really well, better than every rookie available. I don't mean to judge your strategy, but I would have thought the whole point of getting decent mid-pricers (near premiums), such as ebert is to keep them in until all the on-field rookies are gone. This means that once you have upgraded all on field rookies, then, and only then, would you consider upgrading someone like ebert (depending on trades left etc.). He has much better JS and scoring each week, so has to stay imho. He's also (arguably) less likely to get injured. The rookies are definitely more pressing in terms of concern at this point. If it takes you one or two extra weeks to upgrade a rookie to swan (still fattening/need to downgrade to free up enough cash), as opposed to ebert to swan, then this is not the end of the world. Swan + Ebert is better than Swan + a rookie, which is what you will end up with if you 'knee-jerk' trade next week. I don't know about you but i would feel much more comfortable with ebert on-field over a rookie. It will likely cost you one more downgrade trade early in the season to achieve it, however ebert will average more than any midfield rookie for the period of time he is still in your team, will play more games and you will be able to upgrade ebert more easily than a rookie later on as he will likely be worth much more. This is where you should get that early downgrade trade back.

Ebert is fit and scoring well so not the best option to get rid of yet, even just for that reason alone!

Sorry for writing a thesis  ;D but to sum it up in two words, KEEP EBERT!!!  ;)

+1 very well said!
he'd be your final upgrade!

[-Hector-]

I wouldnt... Ebert is doing so well. Surely you have more pressing issues in your team that need changing.

Mate just to add to what has already been said above, Ebert is going really well, better than every rookie available. I don't mean to judge your strategy, but I would have thought the whole point of getting decent mid-pricers (near premiums), such as ebert is to keep them in until all the on-field rookies are gone. This means that once you have upgraded all on field rookies, then, and only then, would you consider upgrading someone like ebert (depending on trades left etc.). He has much better JS and scoring each week, so has to stay imho. He's also (arguably) less likely to get injured. The rookies are definitely more pressing in terms of concern at this point. If it takes you one or two extra weeks to upgrade a rookie to swan (still fattening/need to downgrade to free up enough cash), as opposed to ebert to swan, then this is not the end of the world. Swan + Ebert is better than Swan + a rookie, which is what you will end up with if you 'knee-jerk' trade next week. I don't know about you but i would feel much more comfortable with ebert on-field over a rookie. It will likely cost you one more downgrade trade early in the season to achieve it, however ebert will average more than any midfield rookie for the period of time he is still in your team, will play more games and you will be able to upgrade ebert more easily than a rookie later on as he will likely be worth much more. This is where you should get that early downgrade trade back.

Ebert is fit and scoring well so not the best option to get rid of yet, even just for that reason alone!

Sorry for writing a thesis  ;D but to sum it up in two words, KEEP EBERT!!!  ;)

This is the point that changed my mind, so thanks.

Thanks for all the advise gents, much appreciated and provided me with the common sense which was needed.

Still thinking of doing the Kennedy to Treloar trade as I think I'll make more money off of Treloar (as Kennedy has already had a decent increase, although admittedly he will increase a fair bit more too). Not completely sold on it though, and the more I think about it the more I think it may be worthwhile just saving a trade.

I don't really have more pressing issues at present, which is definitely a good thing. I have Ablett injured, but most people have that issue.

I will throw another scenario.. Exactly the same, although I could do it without the Magner trade, what if it were Pendlebury or Rockliff instead of Swan.. What would be the response then?

I guess overall, the question I am asking is do I mean on the well priced premiums now, meaning I have to give up a rookie which potentially have more money to make, or just sit tight, wait for them to appreciate in value and then see who is well-priced at that point in time.

Also have Smedts, who could be a trade-out option this week, particulary if he is not named.

[tbagrocks]

ok, I missed the boat with Swan and Beams! was planing on getting these two next week (cos I got Ziebell and Traloar this week)
and you saw what happened! and way I have over 600k and still want Swan, was going for chappy but can now afford Beams!
was going for Barlow but can now afford Swanny, 

Mackay to Swan, Milera to Beams/Sidy good move?

[tigers123]

hmm not sure mate... pendle and rocky are definitely very underpriced, so if you could get the without using too many trades/had any rooks that have peaked at the moment no would be a good time to get them...

BUT by doing that you are still trading out ebert?

i'd probs still recommend that you sit tight for another premo that will comes down in a few weeks after a bad game...

[Praetorian]

I'm just astounded that it's taken a 170 for people to consider trading him in. He bottomed out - as much as he ever does - prior to ANZAC day. Best DT player ever, hasn't scored below the ton yet, and only now you're considering bringing him in?!

[tbagrocks]

I'm just astounded that it's taken a 170 for people to consider trading him in. He bottomed out - as much as he ever does - prior to ANZAC day. Best DT player ever, hasn't scored below the ton yet, and only now you're considering bringing him in?!

yep, should have got him this week but I wanted Treloar! but was getting him in next week regardless!!