The Gary Ablett Thread

[Ringo]

Ablett when interviewed on Qld TV tonight was confident of being back in 2 weeks as there is no structural damage apparent.  Obviously wait for scans before making final decision.  Only issue is for those that want to trade Gaz for Pendles may not know before Partial lock out.

[The Bomber]

scans were already done...look on the AFL website...showed a 2-3 week injury, gablett not wanting to wait that long

[tor01doc]

I don't think Ablett will allow himself to be rested. If he can play, he will. He wants the brownlow and he wants to play. If the scans are positive it will be a one week rest at most surely?

I really don't think Ablett's priority is the Brownlow... ??? He's very much a team man.

He might miss the one week, but he will only return once he's at full capacity. The last thing he'd want is to further damage his knee coming back too early!!

Don't trade him!! At the moment, he's the 9th most Traded out player in SC this week with 1.96% of trades out. 158 people have traded him to Stanton ???

9     Stanton, B     Ablett, G    158 (1%)

Why, oh why!! Some people have no idea!!

I can see why someone might consider this.

Vice captain loophole (potentially worth 20 points) + Extra points each week GAJ is out (ie Stanton vs Rookie) say 40 points times number of weeks (say 3) + may have cash cows ready to peak in 3 weeks (eg Magner and Shiel - extra $80 000)  = GAJ BE 130 odd so won't go up a huge amount even if you miss him one week after his return for insurance against sub if NQR + $130000 difference + TOTAL of all this could be as much as 180 points ( minimum given JS of some rookies) and maybe a pile of cash that builds up and enables GAJ back in when he's ready.

Nah - just sit him on the bench.  ::)

[Vicious Sandwhich Attack]

The way Ii am looking at it right now. GAJ is $720k.... Thats a lot of coin to gert him back in! It will be a lot harder to get him back in than a $550-$600k prem Mid. At least two Prem Def or Fwd could be upgraded in the time it takes him to come back, which from what I can see will be 2 weeks out, then he will play against GWS.

His BE will only be 107, so in all likeliness to get him back in after 2 weeks you will be looking at a very pricey $750k or thereabouts.

IMO better to fix everything else in readiness for the return of the glorious leader! 8)

[Cool9]

Spot on Vicious Sandwich. This thread has a lot of ingenius plans for trading out GAJ and getting him 'straight back in' in three of four weeks time using several cunning trades and residual cash hocked away here and there.

In theory could work if planets align, everything goes perfectly and there are no injuries / suspensions requiring rescue trades in that time (ie chewing up said residual $$). Risky strategy looking at the first 4 rounds of carnage I would have thought. ANYTHING goes wrong after trading out GAJ, could be several trades for the return trip or a season without GAJ.

[BoredSaint]

keeping him safe on the bench.. SO NO NIGGLING INJURIES CAN GET TO HIM HOPEFULLY ::)

[mpollock]

If you traded him for a premium like J.Selwood who has a B/E of 90 then you would probably get a scoring advantage of say 120 for Selwood less a rookie score of 70 = 50 points x 2 weeks = 100 points.

Then you may make money on J.Selwood if he pulls out 2 x 120 scores which is very possible ... and pocket say 30-40k when trading back to Ablett in two rounds.

So this approach would give you 100 points and about 30-40k over two rounds for the cost of two trades.
I think a trade is worth a lot more then 50 points and 15k - so that make it a no.

Bench for me using that logic.

You could get a slighly better return if you used the cash to jump on multiple premium players with a low B/E because you would get more points and more price increase.  But then your gain would be divided by probably 4 trades or at least 3 depending on what money you have in the kitty.

Again not worth it using that logic.

[HotTiges]

perfect time to use the bench rookies, and conserve your trades..

[AndyD8410]

I think to trade or not to trade Ablett is dependant on everyones individual situation. I'm a little lucky because my midfield was pretty much lock and leave for the season with only Magner in there as a rookie. Now it's going to be 4 premiums, Magner and Shiel with Ablett on the bench.

However, for those who may have stacked their midfield with rooks, they would seriously need to consider trading out Ablett and upgrading 1 or 2 of the rookies to remain competitive.

My forward line and back line are still the weakest areas of my team but I think I'm scoring steadily enough to stay near the top of my league and let my rookies fatten up some more without drastic changes. I've only burnt 2 trades so far but unfortunately one of those was the dreaded Broughton to Dempsey and Dempsey is still sitting on my bench.

[upthemaidens]

I don't think Ablett will allow himself to be rested. If he can play, he will. He wants the brownlow and he wants to play. If the scans are positive it will be a one week rest at most surely?

I really don't think Ablett's priority is the Brownlow... ??? He's very much a team man.

He might miss the one week, but he will only return once he's at full capacity. The last thing he'd want is to further damage his knee coming back too early!!

Don't trade him!! At the moment, he's the 9th most Traded out player in SC this week with 1.96% of trades out. 158 people have traded him to Stanton ???

9     Stanton, B     Ablett, G    158 (1%)

Why, oh why!! Some people have no idea!!

1.96% traded him out doesnt mean much considering 20+% of teams are multiple teams,, if i was a coach running lets say 30 different teams then i would trade him out in 50% of them probably aswell,,,
   

[Hot_Dogs]

IMO, if he is only out for 1 week, then you should keep him.  Out for 2 then it's a 50/50 call, and out for 3 then he's gotta go.

Let's work off the 2 week theory.  Who to trade for is the point of difference:

Still in the hunt for overall

• Trade for a premium gives you a potential points advantage over those other overall hunting teams who don't.  In 2 weeks, you should get around 120 points (say Pendles in, and he averages 120, whilst Coniglio averages 60)
• Trade for a rookie with low b/e gives you more available cash for earlier upgrades earlier (i.e. Old MacDonald), which may equate to more points earlier.  McDonald will probably go up around 150k in the 2 weeks, plus you'll have 600k in the bank for Pendles, Swan, etc, who bottom out next week.

BTW, GAJ has a b/e of 130, so it's not like he will be any more expensive to get back in at a later point.

[upthemaidens]

IMO, if he is only out for 1 week, then you should keep him.  Out for 2 then it's a 50/50 call, and out for 3 then he's gotta go.

Let's work off the 2 week theory.  Who to trade for is the point of difference:

Still in the hunt for overall

• Trade for a premium gives you a potential points advantage over those other overall hunting teams who don't.  In 2 weeks, you should get around 120 points (say Pendles in, and he averages 120, whilst Coniglio averages 60)
• Trade for a rookie with low b/e gives you more available cash for earlier upgrades earlier (i.e. Old MacDonald), which may equate to more points earlier.  McDonald will probably go up around 150k in the 2 weeks, plus you'll have 600k in the bank for Pendles, Swan, etc, who bottom out next week.

BTW, GAJ has a b/e of 130, so it's not like he will be any more expensive to get back in at a later point.

if we knew for a fact how long he will be out, it would make it alot easier to decide.. i.e. if it was 2 weeks and comes back as good as ever, then i wouldnt trade,, if on the other hand its 3 weeks than i would,, so  im stuffed if i know what to do

[nas]

IMO, if he is only out for 1 week, then you should keep him.  Out for 2 then it's a 50/50 call, and out for 3 then he's gotta go.

Let's work off the 2 week theory.  Who to trade for is the point of difference:

Still in the hunt for overall

• Trade for a premium gives you a potential points advantage over those other overall hunting teams who don't.  In 2 weeks, you should get around 120 points (say Pendles in, and he averages 120, whilst Coniglio averages 60)
• Trade for a rookie with low b/e gives you more available cash for earlier upgrades earlier (i.e. Old MacDonald), which may equate to more points earlier.  McDonald will probably go up around 150k in the 2 weeks, plus you'll have 600k in the bank for Pendles, Swan, etc, who bottom out next week.

BTW, GAJ has a b/e of 130, so it's not like he will be any more expensive to get back in at a later point.

if we knew for a fact how long he will be out, it would make it alot easier to decide.. i.e. if it was 2 weeks and comes back as good as ever, then i wouldnt trade,, if on the other hand its 3 weeks than i would,, so  im stuffed if i know what to do

Agree but the price remains the same

[Nuffman]

These are my strategies:

Current bank: $264,500

Strategy 1:
Trade GAJ -> Ziebell
Left in bank: $557,400
Plays GC @ Etihad first up. Immediate avalanche of points one would hope. Owned by just under 2% of teams currently, so could be a great POD for me to jump a few spots up!

This can be quite fruitful. Ziebell has the potential to go BANG! and has shown he can score well against quality opposition in his first two games back.
It's leaves plenty of money for me to straight trade out one of my mid rookies for GAJ when he comes back.
Only real question is: can Ziebell score enough to be, at the very least, my 6th mid by years end?

Strategy 2:
Trade GAJ -> Murphy
Left in bank: $340,200
Plays Freo @ Patersons, then GWS @ Etihad. Great current record v Freo and should demolish GWS. Owned by just over 20% of teams currently, but that may include 90% of teams ahead of me :-(

The obvious thing here is I'm getting a gun player that shares the same bye as GAJ. Not really a POD, but should be good enough to be #1-3 of my mids by year end.
Downside is that I will have to double trade to get GAJ back into my team, (downgrade, upgrade)
No real question that I can think of atm.

Strategy 3:
No trade

Means playing 3 rookies in mids for a couple weeks at the very least.
Potential to drop ranking due to loss of scoring power.

As an aside, I have 21 trades (shoring up rookies and Mummy -> NicNat after he screwed me the first time, my friends called me stupid... WHO'S LAUGHING NOW! :-P)

Current mid setup is:
GAJ, Watson, Pendlebury, Boyd, Magner, Shiel (Greene, Coniglio)

What do you guys reckon?

Obviously there are other options, but these were just 2 completely opposite examples that stuck out in my head.

Would like to hear what you guys are thinking!

[ubeaut]

These are my strategies:

Current bank: $264,500

Strategy 1:
Trade GAJ -> Ziebell
Left in bank: $557,400
Plays GC @ Etihad first up. Immediate avalanche of points one would hope. Owned by just under 2% of teams currently, so could be a great POD for me to jump a few spots up!

This can be quite fruitful. Ziebell has the potential to go BANG! and has shown he can score well against quality opposition in his first two games back.
It's leaves plenty of money for me to straight trade out one of my mid rookies for GAJ when he comes back.
Only real question is: can Ziebell score enough to be, at the very least, my 6th mid by years end?

Strategy 2:
Trade GAJ -> Murphy
Left in bank: $340,200
Plays Freo @ Patersons, then GWS @ Etihad. Great current record v Freo and should demolish GWS. Owned by just over 20% of teams currently, but that may include 90% of teams ahead of me :-(

The obvious thing here is I'm getting a gun player that shares the same bye as GAJ. Not really a POD, but should be good enough to be #1-3 of my mids by year end.
Downside is that I will have to double trade to get GAJ back into my team, (downgrade, upgrade)
No real question that I can think of atm.

Strategy 3:
No trade

Means playing 3 rookies in mids for a couple weeks at the very least.
Potential to drop ranking due to loss of scoring power.

As an aside, I have 21 trades (shoring up rookies and Mummy -> NicNat after he screwed me the first time, my friends called me stupid... WHO'S LAUGHING NOW! :-P)

Current mid setup is:
GAJ, Watson, Pendlebury, Boyd, Magner, Shiel (Greene, Coniglio)

What do you guys reckon?

Obviously there are other options, but these were just 2 completely opposite examples that stuck out in my head.

Would like to hear what you guys are thinking!

Mate you have 3 other prem mids. I'd hold. I have only 2(Swan + Selwood). Not sure what I'll do yet,but if I had your mids I wouldn't even think about trading him.