LaHug's Captains Round 4

[LaHug]

Hey guys,
Sorry this is a little late. Been busy... Have a read and let me know what you think. I don't think I've ever predicted 3 scores of 140 before. Could be a huge weekend!

Each week, I will do some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and taking a punt at their score for this week. If you have any requests, just ask away and I'll get to them as soon as I can!

The facts:

Swan
Last 3 weeks: 109, 116, 102 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 155, 137, 141 (144 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 137, 94, 162 (131 avg)

Ablett
Last 3 weeks: 162, 143, 136 (147 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 106, 84, 126 (105 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 106, 84, 96 (95 avg)

Pendlebury
Last 3 weeks: 62, 122, 132 (105 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 120, 121, 92 (111 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 107, 103, 141 (117 avg)

Boyd
Last 3 weeks: 146, 125, 116 (129 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 93, 86, 131 (103 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 108, 89, 121 (106 avg)

Murphy
Last 3 weeks: 139, 115, 116 (123 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 119, 118, 86 (108 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 116, 139, 105 (120 avg)

Judd
Last 3 weeks: 116, 153 (135 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 116 (116 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: N/A

Thompson
Last 3 weeks: 57, 109, 135 (100 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: N/A
Last 3 at AAMI: 109, 100, 89 (99 avg)

Joel Selwood
Last 3 weeks: 106, 104, 114 (108 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 108, 126, 85 (106 avg)
Last 3 at Skilled: 100, 135, 178 (138 avg)

Mitchell
Last 3 weeks: 95, 119, 130 (115 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 129, 147, 140 (139 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 175, 132, 110 (139 avg)

The thoughts:

Swan
If you were going to pick a week for Swan to come back to form, this would be it. His last four against the Power have been 135+ (155, 137, 141, 154). Then there's his Etihad record - 7 tons in his last 8 (last two years) with scores of 137, 162, 137, 161, 143 amongst them. If it weren't for Ablett's fine form, I'd say Swan is a lock. Still, I don't think you could go wrong by picking him. Prediction - 140

Ablett
Not even sure that I care much about his record against the Lions or at the Gabba. You simply can't ignore a 147 average to start the year. That's all I'm going to say. Perma captain until he does something wrong. Prediction - 140

Pendlebury
He should bounce back after last week's awful performance but, considering how poor Collingwood were when he was tagged out of the game, I'd expect harder tags coming for Pendles every week. Two 120 scores last season would imply some kind of trend and, considering I think Swan will do the bigger scoring, I guess I'm going to trust the numbers. Prediction - 120

Boyd
Just like Ablett, Boyd has form going for him despite having a poor record against the Dees and at the MCG. Look at how easy it has been to score against the Demons, 21 tons so far (7 per game) and 11 scores of 120+. If that's not a reason to predict something big, I don't know what is. Prediction - 140

Murphy
Good recent form and I think he'll do alright against the Bombers. However, the Bombers have only given up one ton per game (albeit, last week was a huge 162 from GAJ). I wouldn't take the risk. Prediction - 120

Judd
Equally good recent for but the same risk is there with the Bombers not allowing many points. Prediction - 110

Thompson
Raw numbers don't do it for me but playing GWS does. If his returns against the Suns are anything to go by (135, 151, 135), Thompson loves young (well, crap) teams. Obviously, it would be a gamble, but if you want a POD, he's a good one. Prediction - 130

Joel Selwood
Sadly, I think the Cats will really smash the Tigers to prove that last week was just a blip. However, I don't think Joel will smash the Tigers as he hasn't in the past. His recent form is consistent but not captain worthy. Prediction - 105

Mitchell
The two 140+s in his last three against the Eagles were back in '09 as he didn't play them in 2010. I don't think that matters as he probably would have had a huge score as he seems to always do at Subiaco. He has scored 130+ there 5 times with a huge 175 last year. Expect a big one, despite last week's disappointment. Prediction - 130

The verdict:

1. Ablett (140)
2. Boyd (140)
3. Swan (140)
4. Mitchell (130)
5. Thompson (130)

Requests:

Rockliff - Requested by The F.A.R.K.
Last 3 weeks: 91, 61, 130 (94 avg)
Last 3 against GC: 112, 86 (99 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 61, 151, 112 (108 avg)

Before that awful showing against the dominant Blues, Rockliff had 6 straight tons (some of them big ones) at the Gabba. Against the Suns last year, he didn't dominate but it's not as if he was super awful. Still, I don't see any reason to take a punt on someone with only 1/3 tons so far this year. Prediction - 110

Goddard - Requested by tigers123
Last 3 weeks: 112, 141, 96 (116 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 69, 41, 120 (77 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 141, 112, 122 (125 avg)

Goddard is back this year! Ignore the 69 and 41 from last year's very average season. Before that, he had three straight tons against them (including 120 and 130 in 2010). His form at Etihad was up and down last year but still pretty good as a whole and he's 2/2 tons there this year. I think he could go alright. Prediction - 120

Priddis - Requested by deekay
Last 3 weeks: 97, 95 (96 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 132, 90, 117 (113 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco:97, 121, 99 (106 avg)

He was rested last week so should be fresh and ready to go. One thing I hadn't noticed is just how good he is against the Hawks. He's played them 7 times for 6 tons and has a career average of 119.3 against them. Could be a great choice for a unique captain. This will be a very big game (two of the best few teams in the comp) so you'd expect him to play hard. Only problem is no tons yet this year (should be his first this week). Prediction - 120

Watson - Requested by deekay
Last 3 weeks: 94, 139, 110 (114 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 73, 111, 87 (90 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 105, 33, 101 (80 avg)

That 33 was against the Hawks when he had hamstring problems and was benched for good at the half. Anyway, Watson has scored well this year but the Bombers haven't really played anyone good other than the Roos. This week will be their first big test and I'm expecting it to be a lot harder for them. I don't think Watson will score that big as the Blues seem to know how to stop him (only 2 tons out of 12 for his career against them) and I honestly expect a big win to the Blues. Prediction - 80

If you want me to look at another option, just ask in the comments!

[The F.A.R.K.]

Selwood he will be really fired up after losing last week reckon 150 plus could be on cards

what about rockliff against gc

[essendon2]

Swan over Ablett & Boyd this week  8)

[The F.A.R.K.]

yes

swan, pendles, selwood will all dominate this week

selwood at skilled against the tigers he will be on fire

[Ricochet]

yes

swan, pendles, selwood will all dominate this week

selwood at skilled against the tigers he will be on fire

taking a punt on him this week

[SydneyRox]

GAJ all the way!

[Chelskiman]

Ablett.  That's all that needs to be said.

[Justin Bieber]

Good to see you in the footy show.

[Bones Bombers]

Ablett has to be Captain on form.
Hope your close with all your predicted score as I have Ablett, Pendles, Mitchell, Boyd and Thommo in my midfield!
Could be a big week!

[tigers123]

great write up LaHug, you were spot on last week!

im seriously thinking Jelwood, against the tiges  :(  but also boydy this week...

has anyone seen Goddard's last scores against freo though?!

[elephants]

Ripping writeup mate... Boyd vs Gazza... Argh.

[LaHug]

Selwood he will be really fired up after losing last week reckon 150 plus could be on cards

what about rockliff against gc

great write up LaHug, you were spot on last week!

im seriously thinking Jelwood, against the tiges  :(  but also boydy this week...

has anyone seen Goddard's last scores against freo though?!

Will look at Rocky and Goddard now.

[LaHug]

Good to see you in the footy show.

Huh...?

(I'm guessing this is a reference to Deledio but, as I was out last night and didn't see it, that could be a reference to just about anything...)

[Justin Bieber]

Good to see you in the footy show.

Huh...?

(I'm guessing this is a reference to Deledio but, as I was out last night and didn't see it, that could be a reference to just about anything...)

Yeah it was cause Deledio was on the footy show last night. lol.

[tigers123]

Goddard - Requested by tigers123
Last 3 weeks: 112, 141, 96 (116 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 69, 41, 120 (77 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 141, 112, 122 (125 avg)

Goddard is back this year! Ignore the 69 and 41 from last year's very average season. Before that, he had three straight tons against them (including 120 and 130 in 2010). His form at Etihad was up and down last year but still pretty good as a whole and he's 2/2 tons there this year. I think he could go alright. Prediction - 120

cheers huggy, good write up :)

just thought I'd point out goddard for anyone that was considering a POD captain this week, as that "horrible" last season wasn't actually as bad as it looks! That 41 there was scored in 19 minutes before he was subbed out before quarter time! I have a feeling that he could absolutely kill it against freo!