what happened to originality

[vitch]

have you all had a good read through these posts?, I reckon you're all working on a pool of about 30 - 40 players, there will be some some very boring competitions around this season. whats wrong with the likes of - wheatley, mackie, waite, ellis, marty clarke, urquart s. thompson, hayes, wells cooney, rischitelli, griffen tambling,schammer, r. murphy brennan, bate etc.etc. how about a bit of originality please.

[dtwoot]

lol the funny thing about this is, i was just thinkn the same thing, i wont name any other players that ive read across, cuz uve named a few, but im seriously considering the others, i mean its hard not to pick certain players that people mention on these boards but ey picking unique players is the key to this game if you are to rise to the top

[shog]

Yeah you're totally right vitch. Next year i don't think i'll read these forums so i'm not influenced by any other coaches and thus choose players that i have faith in but might not necessarily be mainstream. Whilst it is understandable that the higher proportion of your players will be heavily picked (the Goddard's, Cox's, Ablett's etc.) it is worth picking a few of these ultra roughies or back the underdog just to have a point of difference from a regular 22.

[vitch]

yep

[stuballers]

IMO the best teams will b the ones who select from the pool of the 30 or 40 players constantly mentioned, but chose correctly. Even tho ppl will pick from the same pool of players the scores will b vastly different depending on how the teams r structured, captains chosen, ppl gettn 0's, who is chosen on the bench etc. If you r able to pick a gun outside that group it will clearly also help. But there is a huge amount of room for variation from with it.

For example, 2 teams may look very similar, however one starts 2 rookies and the other starts 4 rookies. They may look very similar on paper, but hugley different strategically and will eventually produce way different teams and scores.

As the season goes on the best strategies will come out on top.

[stuballers]

vitch: the reason no one is picking those players is theres nothing to suggest they will have better seasons than last yr (for the majority). ANd they are not as good as those that need not improve to still be picked, eg. ablett and cox.

It makes no sense to pick them. So shog, I dont think it is worth picking them to be different, there r differences enough and its strategy that will b the difference.

[shog]

It is not a case of just being different, stuballers. There is a strategic advantage behind it.

If you pick from the same pool of players there is no way you can win anything. There will be someone else with the exact same team that will get 'more luckier' than you. You either need to back different players/avoid players or have a far superior strategy in order to do really well. It doesn't take much to have a 'different' team. For example, instead of choosing Hasleby or Lucas (who are now older, slower) go with Grigg and Veszpremi (although these players are getting picked more and more - it is just an example). Of course, if your playing in a league with a bunch of bunny mates or just want to do averagely well with the big boys, you don't need to risk being 'lucky'.

[pgillw]

Shog, I understand your point of view, and we often talk about points-of-difference in our league (which for the record, has been a top-5 league overall 4 of last 5 years - last year being the exception), however, I think you're missing the point.

They key to this game is rookies, pure and simple. 

Everyone will start with between 10 and 14 guns, some mid-rangers and a host of rookies.  While I agree it is worthwhile to have different big guns (R Murphy compared to Didak, for example), taking a risk, by choosing a Griffen / Rischitelli / Brennan / Tambling / Bate (not one of whom is a proven DT performer) at a pretty high price is requiring you to determine not only vast improvement in their DT scoring, but also the roles the coaches have in mind for them, TOG and other coaches' opinions, etc.

The old, "I think he's going to have a big year" rarely works in the face of the facts, being the last five years of AFL / DT history.

However, choosing a rookie who is going to explode out of the blocks, Priddis / Palmer / Petterd, who will earn you up to 300K, will give you all the advantage needed.

The next challenge is trading. 

The player who won our league last year, and was second overall in Round 19 (before being cruelled by Chapman / Heater / Didak and only 1 trade left, like the rest of the then-top 10), had a very similar team to the rest of our league, but had rookies we didn't, and held them, more importantly.  He traded spectacularly well for the first 12 - 16 weeks and worked his way into a potential top prize spot, all on the back of good rookies.

I think your post is fairly condescending, and if you were really expecting to play with the big boys, as you put it, I suggest that any combination of the following will not see you there:

Wheatley (inj looking longer-term)
Marty Clarke
Urquart
Wells
Rischitelli
Griffen
Tambling
Schammer
Brennan (I dare you to take him - HAHAHA)
Bate

However, go for it.

You are apparently the guru in these parts...

[reconfig]

Shog, I understand your point of view, and we often talk about points-of-difference in our league (which for the record, has been a top-5 league overall 4 of last 5 years - last year being the exception), however, I think you're missing the point.

They key to this game is rookies, pure and simple. 

Everyone will start with between 10 and 14 guns, some mid-rangers and a host of rookies.  While I agree it is worthwhile to have different big guns (R Murphy compared to Didak, for example), taking a risk, by choosing a Griffen / Rischitelli / Brennan / Tambling / Bate (not one of whom is a proven DT performer) at a pretty high price is requiring you to determine not only vast improvement in their DT scoring, but also the roles the coaches have in mind for them, TOG and other coaches' opinions, etc.

The old, "I think he's going to have a big year" rarely works in the face of the facts, being the last five years of AFL / DT history.

However, choosing a rookie who is going to explode out of the blocks, Priddis / Palmer / Petterd, who will earn you up to 300K, will give you all the advantage needed.

The next challenge is trading. 

The player who won our league last year, and was second overall in Round 19 (before being cruelled by Chapman / Heater / Didak and only 1 trade left, like the rest of the then-top 10), had a very similar team to the rest of our league, but had rookies we didn't, and held them, more importantly.  He traded spectacularly well for the first 12 - 16 weeks and worked his way into a potential top prize spot, all on the back of good rookies.

I think your post is fairly condescending, and if you were really expecting to play with the big boys, as you put it, I suggest that any combination of the following will not see you there:

Wheatley (inj looking longer-term)
Marty Clarke
Urquart
Wells
Rischitelli
Griffen
Tambling
Schammer
Brennan (I dare you to take him - HAHAHA)
Bate

However, go for it.

You are apparently the guru in these parts...

Have any of you looked at the dude who won the competition th whole  last year. He apparent came third the year before as well. It's posted somewhere on the bigpond football forums, and he didnt have many guns at the start, and a alot of mid-priced players. I don't hink he even put any rookies in his starting line-up, just on the bench. He is certain proof that the gun-rookie stategy is not the only way to win.

[stuballers]

pgillw: i agree with u

recinfig: plz pick players in that list. Ur a waste of time and so r they.

I've finished up pretty high in the past and it was because of good trading, getting a bit lucky with my guns doing very well and good rookies.

Rookies and strategy, thats how im going about it.

[Uncle]

They key to this game is rookies, pure and simple. 

Ok. not true at all. the key to the game is mid priced players that rise in price. every year, the top teams in the competition pick the next big thing and win with those mid range players. its rarely about the rookies because they are just too easy to pick up... you are wasting your time picking 14 guns believe me.

Just to pull you up, Priddis was one such player. He was NOT a rookie in his breakout year. His first season in the afl, when he was a low priced player, he only averaged in the 60's. he averaged 89 in his breakout year, 2007, when you could pick him up nice and cheap as a mid range player, as I did!

and if you want to be original, definately go with Tambling... you'll be the only person in the country to have him!!!

[Hawks_1976]

The guns/rookies theory is geared around making as much cash as you can to get as much premiums into your side as possible.
The problem is if you use up too many trades to obtain your guns, you can get found out in the last few rounds when injuries pop up ( I got burnt with Pav missing R22 last year ).
Using players starting prices as a guide only, plot your side on an excel spreadsheet. Estimate where you think players prices will peak and look at your possible future trades.
You should come to the conclusion ( as I did ), that you will need to select 4-5 mid priced players to stay with you for the journey.
So my theory is guns/(a few mid price keepers)/rookies.
Time for me to get a life I think.

[love4thegame]

haha just when i thought i was the only one that used excel for this

[shog]

lol excel ehh.. i've just been using the 'notes' section. Time to upgrade i think! 

Oh and btw pgillw, by 'different' i don't mean just taking random stabs at players. I would never pick those players on your list (cept maybe 1 or 2). They actually need to have upside...

[pgillw]

Apologies Shog, borrowed them from vitch's list.

Presumed you were defending him to the hilt.

Furthermore, when I talk about rookies being the key, I don't mean you pick 14 guns and sixteen juniors.  As stated, you must have mid-rangers, and hope to have a few enjoying a breakout year.

However, without at least 27 - 29 players playing every week (and for the juniors, at least 6 - 8 games in a row to settle on a decent price).  Therefore, the key is the rookies.  They must play - no two ways about it.  Doesn't matter how good your mids are, to turn them into guns you need $$ and it comes from one place - downtraded rookies.

Make no mistakes, while Palmer stayed in a lot of teams 'til round 22 last year, I was very happy trading him out for Bartel round 15.  A player having a breakout year is simply unviable come the business end unless he goes huge.

So, don't get cheap mids, get guns and mids that, irrespective of the year they're having (unless it's a Swan-type breakout), will eventually be traded for more guns.

You need 22 guns come round 22 - check the top ten teams last year.  You won't find too many sporting Palmer / Sewell / Porpy, etc.  As much as they may have helped you manage the H&A, they must be replaced for top100 contention.