Round 1 progressive scores

Started by essendon2, March 29, 2012, 11:22:35 PM

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roti

543/7

still to play

ROOKS:
Marty Clarke (is he a rook?)

MIDPRICERS:
Caddy, Hargrave, Porplyzia, Dangerfield (suppose he doesnt justify being a premo)

PREMS:
Goddard, Birchall, Broughton, Pendlebury, Ablett, Boyd, Selwood, Franklin, Fyfe, Sidebottom

hoping for around 2100

theswiz

Quote from: Colliwobblers on March 30, 2012, 12:55:07 AM
Quote from: theswiz on March 30, 2012, 12:22:56 AM
@Ziplock. How can you have no rookies left after 5 player one of them being Martin?
I imagine you must have a few mid pricers like danger, hargrave and maybe golby?

becasue he has a LOT of mid pricers :)

I have 1 rook left to play but have already played Coniglio (Grrrr), Kennedy Bugg Giles (YaY)

9 Premiums, 5 Mid Pricers and 1 Rook left to play...

Now my only choice left for the final team is who to start out of "the Legend" and "The Magnet" in my mids.

See this is where I think mid pricers let you down...
You have 15 players left to play.
I have 13 to play. 1 rookie and 1 mid pricer and 11 premiums.

It's almost a guarantee that 11 premiums will 9 premiums and 2 mid pricers... So my question is why bother with mid pricers at all? My team has 1... but with a specific trade plan that does not include him in my top 7 backmen.
Mid pricers are almost always unproven therefore it's a gamble that risks LOSING. Proven premiums aren't a gamble, just a bit of luck involved in how good or bad their season will be at premium status. In many ways a rookie is like a mid pricer. They both have uknown scoring potential that you have to guess at. I'd much rather a premium and rookie than 2 mid pricers and here's why:
Premium avg 110 (give or take)
Rookie Avg 60 (possibly a little generous, but if you've done your homework...)

Mid pricer 80 (again giving the benefit of the doubt)
Mid pricer 80

Now you already see the premium and rookie combo coming out at a guestimated 10 points higher. But lets say they break even and the premium avg's only 100....

You make SO much more money from a rookie as they have a MUCH lower breakeven than a mid pricer.

Oh and it takes 2 trades to cash in the mid pricer and only one the rookie.

Colliwobblers

you can compare your scores to Zip and I each week and see if your theory works out :)

Me I'll take a proven mid pricer either recovering from injury or clearly on the improve as a 2nd or 3rd year player than a rooks score.

Just to give you a couple of examples of why your wrong about mid pricers.

1. Shiels was a cheap mid pricer last year, what did he end up averaging again ?

2. If someone offered you Lake for $255K when he was fit you would have bought 3 of him no?

3. I am willing to bet I make more money from any of my low $200k mid pricers than I could make from a lot of the rooks and I reckon I might just make the cash a lot sooner as well.

But each to his own, good luck for the rest of the round and we will see how we all end up  ;)

pavs nose

i am on 8/638

ben cousins is on the crack pipe

Scrads

the 'it uses less trades' line of thinking is also a myth.

You cant trade a rookie directly to a premium, so you have to downgrade one, then upgrade another = 2 trades.

Same with midpricers, although you probably only need to downgrade a rookie and upgrade a midpricer.

Also means you SHOULD be getting higher scores and better JS than rookies.

therefore midpricers > rookies...... If Chosen Correctly.

Cayenne

495 from 7.

Ellis and Morris on the field did not bode so well, bugg did though.

2 Rooks, 3 Mids, 10 premos to go.

theswiz

Quote from: Colliwobblers on March 30, 2012, 01:28:40 AM
you can compare your scores to Zip and I each week and see if your theory works out :)

Me I'll take a proven mid pricer either recovering from injury or clearly on the improve as a 2nd or 3rd year player than a rooks score.

Just to give you a couple of examples of why your wrong about mid pricers.

1. Shiels was a cheap mid pricer last year, what did he end up averaging again ?

2. If someone offered you Lake for $255K when he was fit you would have bought 3 of him no?

3. I am willing to bet I make more money from any of my low $200k mid pricers than I could make from a lot of the rooks and I reckon I might just make the cash a lot sooner as well.

But each to his own, good luck for the rest of the round and we will see how we all end up  ;)

No doubt that's true. But picking a mid-pricer that becomes like shiels is like winning the jackpot.
I was looking at player trends prior to the season beginning.
I noticed a pattern in many proven premiums.
They begin first year around 60's then there are two streams. They either take a little longer and go something like 70's, 90's and then 100's or they go low 90's, low 100's then high 100's. Now obviously there are many excpetions to the rule but as a general guideline it proved fairly accurate.
Having said that there are HUNDREDS of players who fit the formula and then don't progress. A lot of the mid-pricers who have high hopes don't make it, not in DT anyway.
At the end of the day there are good arguments both ways. But mid pricers do cost more and as a result lessen your potential amount of premiums.
I'm looking forward to comparing scores with you and Ziplock!

Phasir

#37
624/8
Studs: Gibbs, Kennedy(getting his EMG score) Bugg(bench) Giles(bench) McDonald(bench)
Duds: Shiel & Ellis

The Other Guys:

400k-600k
Pendles (C) Rockliff, Jelwood, Franklin, Suckling, Fyfe, Heppell, Sidebottom

200k-400k
Hanley, Dangerfield, Waters, McIntosh

85k-200k
Clarke, Magner

Holz

#38
Quote from: Ziplock on March 30, 2012, 12:50:00 AM
Quote from: theswiz on March 30, 2012, 12:22:56 AM
@Ziplock. How can you have no rookies left after 5 player one of them being Martin?
I imagine you must have a few mid pricers like danger, hargrave and maybe golby?
I field 3 rookie (including mcdonald)

midpricers are where it's at!

first thing im going to do when lockout finishes is go to your team, i assume your going to have something like waters,golby,hargreaves down back. Probably JZ in the middle maybee caddy or mccarthy. Maybee Hmac or kreuz in the ruck.

Cant think of any midprice forwards besides danger and porposie. i would give you props if you have the guts to go christenson.


Saying that i have too many midpricers this year, if you dont count clarke as a rookie than i have none left either. I ahte midpricers and i have 3 guys in 200-400k range and for me thats 3 too many.  I just cant afford to drop one of them a rookie and get 2 premiums so im going to have to stick with it.



Im on 597/8 so pretty bad, like most my bench is killing it.

On a positive note i have 10 premiums left too play, my 2 350kish midpricers, hargreaves and clarke.l

IM expecting 550 from my 4 mids, i hope they can do it they cost me nearly 2.3 million, thats only 100k less than my 9 backman

Shrews

509 from 7

To play:

All six Mids
Ablett(c), Swan(vc), Pendlebury, Mitchell, Thompson, Van Berlo

Defenders
Goddard, Golby, Hargrave, Clarke

Forwards
Franklin, Pavlich, Dangerfield, Harvey

Rucks
McKintosh

Emg
Bugg(def), Redden(ruc), Saad(for)



rider

11/893
All premos and 1 mid price to come. Ass Coach predicts 2117

Windigo


T Dog


Fletch74

561/9 - Stupid DT App. I did a couple of trades and it left Waters, who I brought in, on the bench and played both Morris and Ellis. Also put the Porpoise on the bench too, luckily that didn't effect me. Would have had Morris on the bench, now have to have Smedts and Bugg >:(

Have had Coniglio, Shiel, Ellis, Morris, Smith, Scotland, Giles, Mumford, and Deledio play.

mezzoculo

Quote from: Colliwobblers on March 29, 2012, 11:36:28 PM
Disapointment: Dropped Conca due to sub knew I shouldn't have scored 36 in less than a quarter.
Same here, Colli. Here's hoping he cops it fairly often early in the season!