Darley/Bugg, the Josh Toy of 2012? Buyer Beware

[elk101]

I am seeing a lot of blogs/website entries with advice to "Lock" Darley or Bugg or another GWS rookie into your backline as one of your rookie defender selections.

However I am not convinced about these 2 GWS players or any other GWS defender that they'll be as good as their junior reputation or their VFL/NEAFL form stats suggest in their
FIRST year.

Let's take a look at just a couple of last years GC rookie backs many of us considered, chose and got burnt by or were pleasantly surprised by and see how well they did:

Michael Coad
Age: Mature
NEAFL Average coming into the 2011 AFL season: 95.8
AFL Games & Average: 2 Games @ 82

Josh Toy
Age: 18
NEAFL Average coming into the 2011 AFL season: 82.3
AFL Games & Average: 8 games @ 47.25

Danny Stanley
Age: Mature
VFL Average coming into the 2011 AFL season: 88.5
AFL Games & Average: 22 games @ 77.91

Only Stanley really was great value for money and a real trade saver, unfortunately in 2012 he is no longer a rookie and is a forward

Onto the GWS and most of their defenders, some of which we are considering..

Sam Darley
Age: 18
NEAFL Average coming into the 2011 AFL season: 90

Tom Bugg
Age: 18
NEAFL Average coming into the 2011 AFL season: 76

Tim Mohr
Age: Mature
VFL Average coming into the 2011 AFL season: 81

Tim Segrave
Age: 18
NEAFL Average coming into the 2011 AFL season: 42

Jack Hombsch
Age: 18
NEAFL Average coming into the 2011 AFL season: 73

Tim Golds
Age: 18
NEAFL Average coming into the 2011 AFL season: 70

Gerald Ugle
Age: 18
NEAFL Average coming into the 2011 AFL season: 72

Jacob Townsend
Age: 18
NEAFL Average coming into the 2011 AFL season: 84

Most of us would love if these rookies could get close to their respective competition averages, however I for one am steering clear of 18 year defenders born into a new franchises.

I'm not saying Mohr will be the next Stanley, I'm not saying Darley & his fellow GWS defenders will score badly all I am saying is buyer beware :D

Toy had a reputation of being a great user of the ball, with the numbers to back it up. He had a showing in his final NAB game
of 109SC points before the real stuff started! And I think according to my memory from the AFL Prospectus "looks like and will play and score like the Chad of 05'..." (Look he eventually still could, it was his first year!)
 
LOCK & LOAD Right?

Toy made his first appearance in R4 and in his first 4 games(not including his true first game where he was the sub which was R2) had 7 goals kicked against him and averaged a respectable 60.5 ppg he then only made 3 more appearances for the SEASON!  :o

ALL I'M SAYING IS BUYER BEWARE!  8)

[4INAROW]

in coads defense he was injured and would've outscored the other 2 imo

[4INAROW]

good article, i think every1 is aware of the risk, but that comes with picking rookies.

maybe toy's role changed when the real season started compared to his 109sc game.

that's where the blokes who do their research will benefit i spose.

well done  :)

[elk101]

Very true, I agree but we can only assess based on who got on and stayed on the park, otherwise we'd be having a debate on the midfield rookies of Mitchell and Zorko possibly outscoring Conigllio and Tyson if they weren't injured.

I only wish Coad was rookie priced this year.. 

[MontyJnr]

Every team has Darley in it but why? 
He scored 62 sc/68 dt playing a full nab game in the 2nd round, didn't play the 3rd round and scored 32 sc/35 dt playing half a game in the 4th round. These are not amazing stats, with his slightly lower sc to dt ratio in each game showing us he was not super effective. In the first round triple game he scored a better 36 dt (50 dt is a great score in the shorter games) and didn't play the second game.
Sure his NEAFL average is impressive, but when sheeds came out with his likely round 1 team before the NAB even started, wouldn't you think he'd be in it based on his dominate past season?

http://www.couriermail.com.au/sport/afl/gws-coach-kevin-sheedy-knows-team-for-round-1/story-e6frepf6-1226267156960

As you can see he wasn't, so I really don't understand why he has become a 'must-have' in everyone's backline. Sheep effect? Perhaps, but his stats we've seen so far indicate he is no better than Tim Mohr, who has better job security and who everyone seems to have jumped off.

[4INAROW]

i think ppl have jumped off mohr due to him being a kpp and probably a lil bit of the sheep effect too

[meow meow]

I think a lot of teams have the Darley/Bugg combo because chances are that at least one will play due to GWS not having many small defenders. Bugg was/is a mid who has to play there because they have nobody else capable.

Same as the Morris/Ellis combo. At least one will play, so you know you'll never get a donut.

[demon_spud]

Every team has Darley in it but why? 
He scored 62 sc/68 dt playing a full nab game in the 2nd round, didn't play the 3rd round and scored 32 sc/35 dt playing half a game in the 4th round. These are not amazing stats, with his slightly lower sc to dt ratio in each game showing us he was not super effective. In the first round triple game he scored a better 36 dt (50 dt is a great score in the shorter games) and didn't play the second game.
Sure his NEAFL average is impressive, but when sheeds came out with his likely round 1 team before the NAB even started, wouldn't you think he'd be in it based on his dominate past season?

http://www.couriermail.com.au/sport/afl/gws-coach-kevin-sheedy-knows-team-for-round-1/story-e6frepf6-1226267156960

As you can see he wasn't, so I really don't understand why he has become a 'must-have' in everyone's backline. Sheep effect? Perhaps, but his stats we've seen so far indicate he is no better than Tim Mohr, who has better job security and who everyone seems to have jumped off.

Mot much point really reading into that article considering where some of those players are lined up and where they actually played during the NAB..Kennedy on the HB instead of HF. Brogan instead of Giles rucking

If Darley averages 70SC then he will make you 220-30 for trading, better than a non player who might get vested.

[MontyJnr]

Yeah i'm not suggesting people get Tim Mohr and i still rate Darley over Smedts, but it might be worth the extra coin to go to a Marty Clarke, Cam Guthrie or Adam Tomlinson.
I've rarely heard anyone mention Jarrad Boumann from the hawks. He scored 77 sc off 44 dt playing against mitch clark in the 2nd nab game and 86 sc off 62 dt playing against israel folau in the 1st game. Good chance of playing while Gilham is out and is the same price as Darley.

[elk101]

Sir, I don't know why hence my curiosity with everyone's love affair with putting him in.. Sheeds is a very crafty Ol' fella and he almost invented the smoke & mirrors technique with the media. That team for R1 contains Scully(definitely out) Brogan(out of R1?), Power(out of R1?), Treloar(out of R1?) so definitely room for Darley(Bugg already in) however I feel their side will be rotating through alot Mcdonald remember is half player/coach.. Greater Western Revolving Doors?

[nathan11]

The big thing I take out of all this is that toy started in round 4 so make sure you pick rookies playing round 1

[scotty_222]

Yeah i'm not suggesting people get Tim Mohr and i still rate Darley over Smedts, but it might be worth the extra coin to go to a Marty Clarke, Cam Guthrie or Adam Tomlinson.
I've rarely heard anyone mention Jarrad Boumann from the hawks. He scored 77 sc off 44 dt playing against mitch clark in the 2nd nab game and 86 sc off 62 dt playing against israel folau in the 1st game. Good chance of playing while Gilham is out and is the same price as Darley.

i like boumann as well i dont think he will get a game consistently 

[elk101]

@Meow Meow Ellis/Morris have to keep out a lot better quality of defending players(Connors, Dea, Batchelor, Rance, Houli, Post, Astbury, Newman, Conca, Grigg, Grimes, Helbig) That's a big list of players to jostle for a spot, most of which are walk up starts.

Darley/Bugg therefore I think have slightly better 'job security' if you can call it that because they are part of the Giants future and will be rotated in and out a lot more, where as Ellis/Morris almost have a gun to their head to perform cause they know there's a queue ready and waiting, almost hoping for them to fail..

Out of those 4, I'd go for one of each for balance..

@nathan11 Toy didn't start till R4, but most "self proclaimed experts" feel the best rookies don't start R1. We've all got to try and look into our crystal ball and find the next Rookie Star that may not start R1 but will definitely be up and running not far after... 

[demon_spud]

Yeah i'm not suggesting people get Tim Mohr and i still rate Darley over Smedts, but it might be worth the extra coin to go to a Marty Clarke, Cam Guthrie or Adam Tomlinson.
I've rarely heard anyone mention Jarrad Boumann from the hawks. He scored 77 sc off 44 dt playing against mitch clark in the 2nd nab game and 86 sc off 62 dt playing against israel folau in the 1st game. Good chance of playing while Gilham is out and is the same price as Darley.

i like boumann as well i dont think he will get a game consistently

Would love to be able to choose Boumann, Hawks on the rise, kicking around, mature age, puop of 2012

[nathan11]

@elk think any rookie who is able to play round 1 and not picked isn't the best especially in a team full of them sure there are some quality rookies that appear later but they are your downgrades can't pick them in your starting squad