Pendles + sub 400k ruck or J sellwood + Jacobs

Crows84 · March 18, 2012, 09:38:12 AM

this should be my last of my team changes with the exception of some rookie shuffling when r1 teams are named. Do i take pendles and a sub 400k ruck give options such as ryder, nicnat, kruz zac smith or even hale, or sellwood and jacobs?

should also mention i already have one premium ruck locked

Sleeken · March 18, 2012, 10:52:53 AM

I'd take Selwood + Jacobs. Selwood should match pendles and Jacobs should out score the rucks you mentioned...

Windigo · March 18, 2012, 11:28:23 AM

Quote from: Sleeken on March 18, 2012, 10:52:53 AM
I'd take Selwood + Jacobs. Selwood should match pendles and Jacobs should out score the rucks you mentioned...

What he said. ;)

Jacobs should improve the most this year out of the rucks. Won't be the best, but he'll put in some decent scores.

KruZin · March 18, 2012, 12:28:34 PM

Something to consider. Joel Selwood only averaged 65% TOG last year! The lowest of the 2011 DT top 10 mids.

That is a huge difference in game time compared to the other top mids of last year who all (apart from Rockliff) averaged 80%+ TOG!

Swan 82%
Pendles 81%
Boyd 88%
Ablett 81%
Rockliff 73%
Mitchell 83%
Murphy 85%
Selwood 65%
Redden 83%
Thompson 87%

If you compare Selwood's overall DT average last year taking into account his very low TOG average in comparison to the other top mids, he is by far the best value for money pick out of the super premium mids.

Certainly has scope for improvement on his 2011 average if he can manage 80-85%+ TOG this season, potentially lifting his average by 5-10ppg, even with a heavier tag. Being Captain this year, it would be expected that he increase his on field presence which would = more TOG.

His 2011 DT average of 109 from 65% TOG is phenomenal.

If you take out the game where he was KO'd his season TOG would still have only been around 70% and his DT average would have been 114.

Going by that formula, he should be good for at least a 120 DT average if he can get that TOG to 80-85% Scoring wise it would put him in the same DT class as Swan, Ablett & Pendles. He has the potential to overtake all of them this year IMHO, if he can avoid being concussed.

Ziplock · March 18, 2012, 01:02:47 PM

but is that including his concussion game? because that would seriously drop in TOG stats...

TMurphBROWNLOW · March 18, 2012, 01:16:35 PM

KruZin that was phenomenal :) all doubts about Selwood have been completely erased :D thanks a ton!

Crows84 · March 18, 2012, 01:23:33 PM

Awesome answer!

Will be locking him in. Be the first time for a few years i havent started with either or both pendles and swan

Jukes · March 18, 2012, 01:48:29 PM

Stanton and Mummy if you can lol.

KruZin · March 18, 2012, 01:54:43 PM

Quote from: Ziplock on March 18, 2012, 01:02:47 PM
but is that including his concussion game? because that would seriously drop in TOG stats...

Yes, it is, but like I said in my post he still would have averaged around 70% TOG even if you exclude that concussion effected game. His season average would also have gone from 109 to 114 if you excluded that game.

Selwood is the second biggest lock behind Ablett for mine.

Colliwobblers · March 18, 2012, 01:58:44 PM

Geelong will continue to rest thier stars / senior players extensively it doesnt surprise me at all that was Selwoods TOG, question is what makes you think it will increase this season?

KruZin · March 18, 2012, 01:59:03 PM

Quote from: Crows84 on March 18, 2012, 01:23:33 PM
Awesome answer!

Will be locking him in. Be the first time for a few years i havent started with either or both pendles and swan

Based on last years lack of TOG and injury affected games from Ablett, Rockliff & Selwood all 3 could average 120+ if they lifted their TOG to 80-85%, meaning you wouldn't need to start with Swan, Pendles & Boyd. Would save 100k in the process.

Windigo · March 18, 2012, 02:03:12 PM

Your posting some good info Kruz. ;)

KruZin · March 18, 2012, 02:05:08 PM

Quote from: Colliwobblers on March 18, 2012, 01:58:44 PM
Geelong will continue to rest thier stars / senior players extensively it doesnt surprise me at all that was Selwoods TOG, question is what makes you think it will increase this season?

My rationale regarding more TOG for Selwood this year is that he is now Captain and more of an on field presence could be expected, especially with Ling being retired now. If he's physically up to it, I don't see any reason why he would play less than 80% TOG this year. Cats midfield is a lot less experienced this year, they would want his 5 years experience out there as much as possible I would think.

Also Selwood's TOG in 2010 was 82%. So last years much lower TOG % may just have been an anomaly based on the injury affected game, not being 100% fit in a few other games and having extended spells on the bench when Geelong were going it easy.