2012 Brownlow Prediction

[cam_snuff]

Top 10 (Subject to change)

34 Ablett
29 Watson
27 Swan
26 Mitchell
24 Cotchin
23 Deledio
23 Thompson
23 Selwood
22 Dangerfield
21 Beams

Club Leaders (Subject to change)

Adel: Thompson (23)
BL: Redden (12)
Carl: Murphy (16)
Coll: Swan (27)
Ess: Watson (29)
Fre: Pavlich (14)
Geel: Selwood (23)
GC: Ablett (34)
GWS: Giles (5), Treloar (5)
Haw: Mitchell (26)
Melb: Jones (8)
NM: Swallow (19)
Port: Broadbent (7)
Rich: Cotchin (24)
StK: Hayes (13)
Syd: Jack (18), Kennedy (18)
WCE: Shuey (17)
WB: Boyd (20)

Hey mate, is there anyway to see your breakdown of round by round votes? Or even just to see some more of the top votegetters for each club?

[ossie85]

Really don't think Ablett - who I'm still picking as the winner - will get 34 votes in a 3 win season.

[matto76]

i think there is something wrong with the predictor, there should be a 25% loading on a winning team or taken away of losing team. That player is less likely to get votes in a losing team thats a certainty. Ie Ablett getting 30 possessions in a losing team and highest possession on the ground would not get the 3 votes even though he scored highest. Where as he would if he had 50 pos and outscored everyone else by 25%.

[Usman]

i think there is something wrong with the predictor, there should be a 25% loading on a winning team or taken away of losing team. That player is less likely to get votes in a losing team thats a certainty. Ie Ablett getting 30 possessions in a losing team and highest possession on the ground would not get the 3 votes even though he scored highest. Where as he would if he had 50 pos and outscored everyone else by 25%.

Ablett will not drop below 30 votes in this. ( I dont mean this in real life but in my poll) because I have basically done what you have explained abou the 25% loading for winning teams it has just been the fact that ablett has been that much better then everyone else on the ground. Having said that he could drop to 30-31 when I review the games over properly.

[azza707]

how confident are you on Broadbent and Shuey being the highest vote getters for their respective clubs. cos they have extremely good odds and considering putting a multi down with them in it

[essendon30]

how confident are you on Broadbent and Shuey being the highest vote getters for their respective clubs. cos they have extremely good odds and considering putting a multi down with them in it

yeah id like to see your port and west coast breakdowns for round by round votes. also for brisbane because the people you have winning it have some very tempting odds

[azza707]

i can see borady mabe snatching it for port, not sure how well ebert will poll. but can easily see priddis taking it from shuey for wce. so yeh so confirmation and thoughts on that would be brilliant Usman.

I think Redden has pretty much won the Brisbane top vote getter

[Spite]

These are my own votes going through the games

Ablett 28
Jobe 27
Scott T 26
Danger 26
Beams 26
Swan 25
Cotch 23 with 7 x 1 vote games, so who knows
Lids 22
mitchell 22

I didn't bother to look at selwood or anyone from sydney

[Usman]

At this stage im pretty confident on Shuey, but stick with me im still analysing the data. Work is very busy at the moment which is making it hard to get stuck into it. I promise everything will be done in full detail before brownlow night.

[essendon30]

personally i think hartlett over broadbent (or danyle pearce), rockliff over redden and scott selwood over shuey (or even priddis or cox; i had shuey 4th for west coast lol)

broadbents the most suprising one for me, i dont see him polling more than 3 or 4 and youve got him at 7 lol.

[madskill55]

who we fancing in these groups lads?

mitchell @ 3.25
kennedy @ 3.75
beams @ 4.25
selwood @ 4.5
deledio  @ 6.5
boyd @ 11

(I think it will be between beams/mitchell)


Pav @ 2.5
Jack @ 4
Hayes @ 5
Stanton @ 6.5
Harvey @ 7.5
S Selwood @ 9

(I think it will be between pay or jack)

Judd @ 3.25
Stevie J @ 4
Kerr @ 4.5
Sewell @ 5
Redden @ 6
Hill @ 9

(I somehow like kerr for value, then judd)

[shinbonerED]

Really don't think Ablett - who I'm still picking as the winner - will get 34 votes in a 3 win season.

I think ablett has single handedly revolutionized the way top brownlow vote honours have traditionally been given to a player in the winning side. It would seem that precedent has been set but it's hard to determine whether they will maintain that this year. One would assume so. Albeit, i don't think that the possibility of picking up the 3 votes in a losing side holds true for anybody else. Ablett is just that dominant on the ground that it would be an absolute travisty to see the player that was clearly head and shoulders better than anybody else to miss out. I think it's refreshing that the most prestigious 'individual honour' is fair when it comes to gary ablett. He deserves the recognition irrespective of the side he plays for. in fact, it is a lot harder to play well in a young, inexperienced side as opposed to a well drilled premiership contender. It's probably why midfielders win the award because they have the most individual influence on a match as opposed to forwards who rely on the midfielders etc.

With this in mind...you just have to come to the conclusion that the umpires alike to the fanatical footy public cannot ignore the individual influence g.ablett has on the games when he graces the field.

I think it's interesting and important to get into the heads of the umps with respect to this because it is the determining factor between ablett getting the votes or not. lets be honest, he's done enough on the field to get the votes providing the umps have the same view as last year.

[upthemaidens]

Just on the "cant get 3 votes in a losing team theme".  2010  didnt Judd get 3 votes when carlton lost to the pies by over 10 goals.     
   And on Ablett's count,  I have him on 27 votes.  34 would be quite high, though Swan got 34 in 2011.
  Ablett got 23-24 votes last year (GC won 3 games), this year(i think) Gary has played a few more games and has had a better year, also GC have had a slightly better year aswell (there average losing margin is alittle lower) ,,(that may have to do with GWS joining the league,but still)..
  I still havnt put my"real" bets on the Brownlow yet, TBH i really dont know what i will take.. Cant figure out whether to go for value and chase the odds, or play safe and take the risk free bets and be happy with a small profit... :-\

[BB67th]

Hey guys, if you check out my blog right now, I have compiled lists of votes and awards from all throughout the football community and totaled up who will win the Brownlow from there. Check it out! I have Ablett to win over Watson and Thompson with Dangerfield as a smokey.

[Usman]

The Final count is here! Its very high like it is most years in my count for some reason but last year proved that high polling years across the board ae possible. Once again i was surprised by Swan this year who sits in just about the same spot as he did in my count last year when noone expected him to finish in the top 3 let alone win! (it may be a trend?) But im fairly confident Ablett will take it home despite only winning 3 games. Another notable player is coinsidently my favourite player in Trent Cotchin. He is sitting 5th in my count but there are many many games were he hasnt polled or gets a 1 or a 2 or not even polled at all were it is not at all unlikely that he could poll more votes and i mean quite a lot more votes, but once again im fairly confident in the count as always. Hope this helps. if anyone wants more info on the count let me know and i will post it. Cheers!! and happy betting!!

32 Ablett   
30 Swan   
28 Watson   
26 Thompson   
25 Cotchin   
24 Mitchell   
22 Dangerfield
22 Beams
22 Deledio
21 Boyd   
21 Kennedy