2012 Brownlow Prediction

[monstrum]

Murphy?

[madskill55]

I think it all depends on who gets more 3's in the first couple of essendon games to see if stanton can knock of jobe. Jobe's entire chances of winning the brownlow does depend on his first half of the season so you'd expect him to be up there.

not entirely sure if murphy can poll up to 13+ votes in the first half.

id be looking at stanton/jobe for value. pendles is favourite. roughies would be thompson.

[Footyrulz]

I have made my own brownlow medal system using criteria. I went through the 5 previous winners and looked at any common themes.

Although I will not reveal my full criteria, I will say that I focused a lot on contestested possessions.

So here is my top 10!
10. Beams
9. Mitchell
8. Cotchin
7. Swallow
6. Boyd
5. Ablett
4. Dangerfield
3. Watson
2. Kennedy

1. S. THOMSPON!!!

[monstrum]

Jpk...?

[Ricochet]

I have made my own brownlow medal system using criteria. I went through the 5 previous winners and looked at any common themes.

Although I will not reveal my full criteria, I will say that I focused a lot on contestested possessions.

So here is my top 10!
10. Beams
9. Mitchell
8. Cotchin
7. Swallow
6. Boyd
5. Ablett
4. Dangerfield
3. Watson
2. Kennedy

1. S. THOMSPON!!!

Swan?? ???

[madskill55]

I have made my own brownlow medal system using criteria. I went through the 5 previous winners and looked at any common themes.

Although I will not reveal my full criteria, I will say that I focused a lot on contestested possessions.

So here is my top 10!
10. Beams
9. Mitchell
8. Cotchin
7. Swallow
6. Boyd
5. Ablett
4. Dangerfield
3. Watson
2. Kennedy

1. S. THOMSPON!!!

Swan?? ???

Everyone may have their own brownlow medal systems, none of them may be right or wrong its all up to personal opinion on how you based your own votes and perceptions of each game. That count doesnt look that suprising although i do think swan will be in the top 10 quite comfortably, and should outpoll some of the aforementioned names. in saying that i might be wrong, and he may be the judd of last year and doesnt get anywhere near the votes that the media and the general public make him out to be.

[essendon30]

im an essendon supporter and after i used my formula i had jobe winning the brownlow with 34 votes. im not sure if im being biased though lol. my formula is weighted so it gives more value to disposals in the 1st and 4th quarter rather than the 2nd and 3rd and then also for clearances, tackles, disposal efficiency and scoring chain involvements. does anyone else think its just me being biased or does jobe have a legitimate chance of polling 34 votes lol

[Footyrulz]

I have made my own brownlow medal system using criteria. I went through the 5 previous winners and looked at any common themes.

Although I will not reveal my full criteria, I will say that I focused a lot on contestested possessions.

So here is my top 10!
10. Beams
9. Mitchell
8. Cotchin
7. Swallow
6. Boyd
5. Ablett
4. Dangerfield
3. Watson
2. Kennedy

1. S. THOMSPON!!!

Swan?? ???

Everyone may have their own brownlow medal systems, none of them may be right or wrong its all up to personal opinion on how you based your own votes and perceptions of each game. That count doesnt look that suprising although i do think swan will be in the top 10 quite comfortably, and should outpoll some of the aforementioned names. in saying that i might be wrong, and he may be the judd of last year and doesnt get anywhere near the votes that the media and the general public make him out to be.

I was very surprised myself to see that swan's stats are not actually that great this year. He finished just 19th in contested possessions which was a major factor in him not making the top 10. I do agree however, that he probably will make the top 10.
BTW he was number 11!

[Ricochet]

I have made my own brownlow medal system using criteria. I went through the 5 previous winners and looked at any common themes.

Although I will not reveal my full criteria, I will say that I focused a lot on contestested possessions.

So here is my top 10!
10. Beams
9. Mitchell
8. Cotchin
7. Swallow
6. Boyd
5. Ablett
4. Dangerfield
3. Watson
2. Kennedy

1. S. THOMSPON!!!

Swan?? ???

Everyone may have their own brownlow medal systems, none of them may be right or wrong its all up to personal opinion on how you based your own votes and perceptions of each game. That count doesnt look that suprising although i do think swan will be in the top 10 quite comfortably, and should outpoll some of the aforementioned names. in saying that i might be wrong, and he may be the judd of last year and doesnt get anywhere near the votes that the media and the general public make him out to be.

I was very surprised myself to see that swan's stats are not actually that great this year. He finished just 19th in contested possessions which was a major factor in him not making the top 10. I do agree however, that he probably will make the top 10.
BTW he was number 11!

Swans games this year...
RD 1: 31 possies and 1 goal
RD 2: 32 possies
RD 3: 31 possies
RD 4: 36 possies
RD 5: 42 possies and 3 goals
RD 6: 29 possies and 1 goal
RD 7: 34 possies and 2 goals
RD 8: 27 possies and 1 goal
RD 11: 42 possies and 2 goals
RD 13: 38 possies
RD 14: 43 possies and 2 goals
RD 15: 31 possies
RD 16: 40 possies
RD 17: 49 possies and 2 goals
RD 18: 37 possies and 5 goals
RD 19: 31 possies and 2 goals
RD 22: 27 possies
RD 23: 42 possies and 1 goal

i know its not all about how many times you get the ball and haven't taken into account other players here but if Swan doesn't get 3 votes for these games there is something wrong.

[Footyrulz]

I have made my own brownlow medal system using criteria. I went through the 5 previous winners and looked at any common themes.

Although I will not reveal my full criteria, I will say that I focused a lot on contestested possessions.

So here is my top 10!
10. Beams
9. Mitchell
8. Cotchin
7. Swallow
6. Boyd
5. Ablett
4. Dangerfield
3. Watson
2. Kennedy

1. S. THOMSPON!!!

Swan?? ???

Everyone may have their own brownlow medal systems, none of them may be right or wrong its all up to personal opinion on how you based your own votes and perceptions of each game. That count doesnt look that suprising although i do think swan will be in the top 10 quite comfortably, and should outpoll some of the aforementioned names. in saying that i might be wrong, and he may be the judd of last year and doesnt get anywhere near the votes that the media and the general public make him out to be.

Yes he got tones of the ballin those games, but remember the umpires don't see the stats so they vote for players that get contested possessions right in front of them in the middle. Swan gets SOOO many cheap kicks.
I was very surprised myself to see that swan's stats are not actually that great this year. He finished just 19th in contested possessions which was a major factor in him not making the top 10. I do agree however, that he probably will make the top 10.
BTW he was number 11!

Swans games this year...
RD 1: 31 possies and 1 goal
RD 2: 32 possies
RD 3: 31 possies
RD 4: 36 possies
RD 5: 42 possies and 3 goals
RD 6: 29 possies and 1 goal
RD 7: 34 possies and 2 goals
RD 8: 27 possies and 1 goal
RD 11: 42 possies and 2 goals
RD 13: 38 possies
RD 14: 43 possies and 2 goals
RD 15: 31 possies
RD 16: 40 possies
RD 17: 49 possies and 2 goals
RD 18: 37 possies and 5 goals
RD 19: 31 possies and 2 goals
RD 22: 27 possies
RD 23: 42 possies and 1 goal

i know its not all about how many times you get the ball and haven't taken into account other players here but if Swan doesn't get 3 votes for these games there is something wrong.

Oops the post didn't work. I was gonna say that swan's possessions are all really cheap and the umpires might not necessarily give him the 3 votes for those games. Remember they don't see any of the votes.

[BB67th]

im an essendon supporter and after i used my formula i had jobe winning the brownlow with 34 votes. im not sure if im being biased though lol. my formula is weighted so it gives more value to disposals in the 1st and 4th quarter rather than the 2nd and 3rd and then also for clearances, tackles, disposal efficiency and scoring chain involvements. does anyone else think its just me being biased or does jobe have a legitimate chance of polling 34 votes lol

There is not a chance that Jobe will poll that many votes.

[upthemaidens]

im an essendon supporter and after i used my formula i had jobe winning the brownlow with 34 votes. im not sure if im being biased though lol. my formula is weighted so it gives more value to disposals in the 1st and 4th quarter rather than the 2nd and 3rd and then also for clearances, tackles, disposal efficiency and scoring chain involvements. does anyone else think its just me being biased or does jobe have a legitimate chance of polling 34 votes lol

If you think he will get 34 votes then back him hard for the win,, 34 votes would be pretty much a guarenteed win.. I personally think a more realistic number would be between 24 and 28 , he wont get many votes in the last 4/5 games once Essendon fell into a hole.

[Usman]

When you realise your formula is not perfect you will release it ;) I did the same thing. Actually to be honest the first year I did this 4-5 years ago your formula sounds very similar in criteria to what mine was. Over time it has developed and in my opinion improved.

[Usman]

By the way guys still haven't had a chance to review my count yet I will go over it 3 times before brownlow night to try and produce the most accurate results.

[essendon30]

By the way guys still haven't had a chance to review my count yet I will go over it 3 times before brownlow night to try and produce the most accurate results.

yeah im lookin forward to seeing your count, probably more accurate than mine lol. the thing with jobe is that in most of essendons wins he doesnt stand out for the 3 votes but no one else really puts their hand up to get it (except stanton in a couple of games). so im lookin forward to your count and tweaking my formula, coz it needs tweaking lol.

btw does anyone know if the TAB are gonna open up any new options for the trifecta market? coz all theyve got is different combinations of ablett, watson, cotchin, dangerfield and thompson and i was lookin to put some money on ablett/watson/swan