2012 Brownlow Prediction

[Usman]

Top 10 (Subject to change)

34 Ablett
29 Watson
27 Swan
26 Mitchell
24 Cotchin
23 Deledio
23 Thompson
23 Selwood
22 Dangerfield
21 Beams

Club Leaders (Subject to change)

Adel: Thompson (23)
BL: Redden (12)
Carl: Murphy (16)
Coll: Swan (27)
Ess: Watson (29)
Fre: Pavlich (14)
Geel: Selwood (23)
GC: Ablett (34)
GWS: Giles (5), Treloar (5)
Haw: Mitchell (26)
Melb: Jones (8)
NM: Swallow (19)
Port: Broadbent (7)
Rich: Cotchin (24)
StK: Hayes (13)
Syd: Jack (18), Kennedy (18)
WCE: Shuey (17)
WB: Boyd (20)

[Justin Bieber]

According to the guy on Facebook, cotchin, danger and ablett all tied..

[BB67th]

I had Ablett win over Watson and Thompson with Danger coming in a tie for fourth with Selwood and Swan. Full votes are on my blog ;)

[Uncle]

would dearly love to see a break down for keiren jack and sam mitchell?? I have grave fears that you have far overestimated mitchell...

[DT Gun]

Swanny will poll heavily

I would be absolutely shocked if he wasnt top 3

Good bet is swanny each way

[Usman]

would dearly love to see a break down for keiren jack and sam mitchell?? I have grave fears that you have far overestimated mitchell...

Haha. That cracked me up for some reason.

here is the analysis. Do with it what you will. It is highly unlikely that their votes will change dramitically By the way monty needs to fix this site so its more stats and number friendly when posting stuff like this.


Mitchell 26
1    1
2    2
3
4    1
5
6    1
7
8    2
9
10  2
11  2
12  3
13
14  3
15
16  3
17  3
18
19
20
21
22
23  3

Jack 18
1    2
2
3
4    2
5
6
7
8    3
9
10  2
11
12
13  2
14  3
15 
16  2
17
18  1
19  1
20
21
22
23

Hope that makes sense.

[Ziplock]

there's a table function, but I dunno how to use it :(

[Usman]

there's a table function, but I dunno how to use it :(

thats what i mean haha its not easy to use

[Uncle]

thanks mate. I have taken Pendles to beat Mitchell as I have him lower... mind you with his 3 from friday he is probably now in front of pendles, damnit! Jack looks about right, I just have a lot of games where you have given him votes and I was suspect, so have given him 1-2 rather than 2... boyd is value in that head to head so i just have to cross my fingers as its in plenty of multis

[madskill55]

I think this years much harder betting wise as well as predicting who will take home the most prestigious medal in AFL. If we look at all the leaders at each team in terms of locks and uncertainties the following arises:

Certain Locks
Watson
Ablett
Pavlich
Boyd

The Rest of the field
Thompson/Dangerfield
Rockcliff/Redden/Black
Murphy/Judd
Swan/Beams
Selwood                                 (should win but Hawkins could pose a threat but highly unlikely)
Mitchell                                 (should win but Buddy could pose a threat)
Giles/Greene/Ward/Treloar
Jones                                   (should win but the rest of the Melbourne Team could snatch it)
Swallow/Harvey
Ebert/Boak/Broadbent/Hartlett
Deledio/Cotchin
Hayes/Dal Santo
Kennedy/Jack
Selwood/Kerr/Shuey/Cox/Priddis/Nic Nat

The question is to you: how are you gonna play this year in terms of betting for the 2012 brownlow. Personally i think multi's will be allowed closer to the date (as already mentioned by sports bet) and TAB could even open up numerous leg multi's on the day of the brownlow. What do you think is the best value on the market for the brownlow? Currently i see the brownlow team winner of highest probability to get some money back especially if you put a wager on collingwood and adelaide as there are 4 potential nominees who could take it out and they are at a respectable price. Also some smokies to make the top 5 also have some worthwhile odds that the astute punter should look at...

[dmac07]

I think this years much harder betting wise as well as predicting who will take home the most prestigious medal in AFL. If we look at all the leaders at each team in terms of locks and uncertainties the following arises:

Certain Locks
Watson
Ablett
Pavlich
Boyd

The Rest of the field
Thompson/Dangerfield
Rockcliff/Redden/Black
Murphy/Judd
Swan/Beams
Selwood                                 (should win but Hawkins could pose a threat but highly unlikely)
Mitchell                                 (should win but Buddy could pose a threat)
Giles/Greene/Ward/Treloar
Jones                                   (should win but the rest of the Melbourne Team could snatch it)
Swallow/Harvey
Ebert/Boak/Broadbent/Hartlett
Deledio/Cotchin
Hayes/Dal Santo
Kennedy/Jack
Selwood/Kerr/Shuey/Cox/Priddis/Nic Nat

The question is to you: how are you gonna play this year in terms of betting for the 2012 brownlow. Personally i think multi's will be allowed closer to the date (as already mentioned by sports bet) and TAB could even open up numerous leg multi's on the day of the brownlow. What do you think is the best value on the market for the brownlow? Currently i see the brownlow team winner of highest probability to get some money back especially if you put a wager on collingwood and adelaide as there are 4 potential nominees who could take it out and they are at a respectable price. Also some smokies to make the top 5 also have some worthwhile odds that the astute punter should look at...

Watson and Ablett both certainties, but Griffin could get close to boyd, and Mundy could get close to Pav as he has been very good in their good end to the season. Also McLean at Carlton as a smokey.

[tbagrocks]

James Kelly at Geelong

[upthemaidens]

Centrebet have "team votes" market open,(which includes most votes without the favourite) i.e. "most votes for Freo. without Pav etc.", but no multi's allowed..
  I also rang TAB(SA) the other day and they will have their market open apparently tuesday (tomorrow).  Doubt they will have multi's either.    So now the job is to find value

[madskill55]

Thoughts on leaders at R10? Watson, Stanton, Pendles, Boyd???

[Ricochet]

Thoughts on leaders at R10? Watson, Stanton, Pendles, Boyd???

Stanton is my roughy for this bet, racked up plenty of the ball and kicked goals in the first half of the season