2012 Brownlow Prediction

[crabapples]

i got e/w on...

M.Murphy
J.Watson
J.Kennedy (syd)
GAJ
Sam Mitchel

lol i don't acctually know what sort of money i can make out of it though..

[tbagrocks]

I'll give you the big tip here ......        SCOTT THOMPSON 8)

would have another 3 votes v geelong today

[upthemaidens]

I'll give you the big tip here ......        SCOTT THOMPSON 8)

would have another 3 votes v geelong today

i put a small bet on him at start of the year at $51  so pretty happy if he does win,,
also got deledio at $121(which is some chance)
and rockliff at $201(which seemed liked great odds at the start of the year to me)

[pies4spoon]

That's great MTTY. Awesome to have another on board. Any chance you could post how you reward points? It looks heavily weighed towards possessions, which of course is justified and wise.

My points scoring is as follows:

Kicks = 2
Handballs = 1

Amount of disposals: 0-10(disposals)/+5% (The total score gained from kicks+handballs, Multiplied by 0.05 and then added onto original total score of kicks+handballs score, an example will be given after this section), 11-25/+8%, 26-39/+12%, 40+/+15%

Example: Scott Pendlebury:
                                         Kicks - 15 (30 points)
                                         Handballs - 12 (12 points)
                                         Total Disposals(Total points from disposals) - 27 (42 points)
42 x 0.12 = 5.04

So 5.04 is now added onto his total brownlow points score for the match which at this stage is 42, so he is now on 47.04

Contested Possession % = The total number of contested possessions divided by the total number of possessions. This is then multiplied by the total score of the kick+handball score and that is again added onto the total.

Example: Scott Pendlebury:
                                         Kicks - 15 (30 points)
                                         Handballs - 12 (12 points)
                                         Total Disposals(Total points from disposals) - 27 (42 points)
                                         Contested Possessions - 13

13 divided by 27 = 48%

42 multiplied by 0.48 = 20.16

So we then add 20.16 onto the overall brownlow score for the game, which at this stage is 47.04. So his score is now 67.2


Disposal Efficiency = Multiply the disposal efficiency by the total brownlow score from all of the above scoring stats so far.

Example: Scott Pendlebury:
                                         Kicks - 15 (30 points)
                                         Handballs - 12 (12 points)
                                         Total Disposals(Total points from disposals) - 27 (42 points)
                                         Contested Possessions - 13
                                         Disposal Efficiency% - 74%

So the total score from Pendlebury so far is 67.2

So 67.2 multiplied by 0.74 = 49.73


Marks = 4 points


Contested Mark% = The total number of contested marks divided by the total number of marks. That percentage is then multiplied by the total brownlow score of marks and is then added onto that total.

Example: Scott Pendlebury

                                       Marks - 3 (12 points)
                                       Contested Marks - 2

So 2 divided by 3 = 0.67

12 multiplied by 0.67 = 8.04

So the total score for the marks section is 20.04

So Pendlebury's total score thus far is 69.77


Hit-outs = 1 point

Clearances = 4 points

Inside 50's = 2 points

Rebound 50's = 2 points

Free's for/Free's against = 1/-1

Tackle = 2 points

One percenters = 3 points

Goals = 8 points

Behinds = 1 point

Goal Assists = 3 points

Its a bit complex but i can make it work.

Looks like a solid system however, i think there needs to be a bigger look at efficiency, contestedness of disposals AND A HUGE NEGATIVE FOR CLANGERS/ARGUING WITH UMPS 50 PENALTIES.
Lastly, perhaps a multiplier for team winning? Its usually a winning team that racks in the votes from memory of years gone past.
System looking pretty good!!!

[Usman]

Sorry for the massive break guys im trying to catch up as we speak. I hear Pendlebury was brownlow favourite from the media and Watson has taken that tag off him? Pretty close but i beg too differ. Will post my results up with in the next week, so we can get back into this thread. In the mean time who do you guys think the favourite should be at this point?

[PowerBug]

Ablett.

[upthemaidens]

Sorry for the massive break guys im trying to catch up as we speak. I hear Pendlebury was brownlow favourite from the media and Watson has taken that tag off him? Pretty close but i beg too differ. Will post my results up with in the next week, so we can get back into this thread. In the mean time who do you guys think the favourite should be at this point?

usman, bookies normally have a market open for "leader after round 11" (that may be leader after rd.12 this year) but either way it may be a good idea to get everyones updated score after this week.
  pendles was favourite ,but after last round Watson is favourite(think hes around $4.50).. personally i think Ablett at $9 is as good a bet going around(though it would help if GC could win a few games)..
   atm ive got the standard guys on top,,(no order) watson,pendles,stanton,ablett,boyd and deledio.. i think for the odds  Deledio is pretty good value..(i grabbed him at start of the year at $121) so hoping he keeps it up :)

[Usman]

usman, bookies normally have a market open for "leader after round 11" (that may be leader after rd.12 this year) but either way it may be a good idea to get everyones updated score after this week.
  pendles was favourite ,but after last round Watson is favourite(think hes around $4.50).. personally i think Ablett at $9 is as good a bet going around(though it would help if GC could win a few games)..
   atm ive got the standard guys on top,,(no order) watson,pendles,stanton,ablett,boyd and deledio.. i think for the odds  Deledio is pretty good value..(i grabbed him at start of the year at $121) so hoping he keeps it up :)
[/quote]

I hope Lids keeps it up too. i have him clearly in front from the Richmond bunch, but there is alot of even spead games through the midfield, and i think they all might steal votes off each other. At the moment though Lids is clearly the leading tiger with 13 votes after 10 rounds but i feel it could be less when it comes down to it as Cotchin is only sitting on around 4 and he has been exceptionally in nearly every game.

[upthemaidens]

usman, bookies normally have a market open for "leader after round 11" (that may be leader after rd.12 this year) but either way it may be a good idea to get everyones updated score after this week.
  pendles was favourite ,but after last round Watson is favourite(think hes around $4.50).. personally i think Ablett at $9 is as good a bet going around(though it would help if GC could win a few games)..
   atm ive got the standard guys on top,,(no order) watson,pendles,stanton,ablett,boyd and deledio.. i think for the odds  Deledio is pretty good value..(i grabbed him at start of the year at $121) so hoping he keeps it up :)

I hope Lids keeps it up too. i have him clearly in front from the Richmond bunch, but there is alot of even spead games through the midfield, and i think they all might steal votes off each other. At the moment though Lids is clearly the leading tiger with 13 votes after 10 rounds but i feel it could be less when it comes down to it as Cotchin is only sitting on around 4 and he has been exceptionally in nearly every game.
[/quote]wow thats trippy,, ive got deledio on 13 aswell  and cotchin on 5  ..
    well ive just added up the top few, lets see how close they are. ive got pendles,watson and stanton all on 14 ..
   ablett,kennedy and boyd on 11..  franklin,danger and swan on 10

[Usman]

Here is my top 12 after 10 rounds. It is really really high numbers which is a worry, but that should be subsided by the bye rounds and players getting rested at teh end of the year. Also going backthrough it i gave Lids 2 votes instead of 1 against Collingwood Rd 2 which means he is on 14!!!

16 Stanton
15 Watson
14 Deledio
13 Thompson
13 Boyd (Im doubting this one)
13 Franklin
13 Ablett
12 Pendlebury
11 Hayes
11 Griffen
11 Shuey
11 Swallow

If anyone wants me to put up the game by game votes for each round just give us a yell!!

[elephants]

Looks great champ. I like Ablett this year, hard to go past whenever GC play he is always a pretty huge stand-out.

[upthemaidens]

Here is my top 12 after 10 rounds. It is really really high numbers which is a worry, but that should be subsided by the bye rounds and players getting rested at teh end of the year. Also going backthrough it i gave Lids 2 votes instead of 1 against Collingwood Rd 2 which means he is on 14!!!

16 Stanton
15 Watson
14 Deledio
13 Thompson
13 Boyd (Im doubting this one)
13 Franklin
13 Ablett
12 Pendlebury
11 Hayes
11 Griffen
11 Shuey
11 Swallow

If anyone wants me to put up the game by game votes for each round just give us a yell!!

the interesting thing in regards to deledio and cotchin, TAB have lids at $21, but have cotchin at $13  .. so either the bookies are wrong or we are :o.. its alittle concerning..    how did cotchin go last year in votes?
    also i see u dont have kennedy or danger in your list.. i have kennedy with 3 BOG's.. how many votes do u have those two on?

[Usman]

the interesting thing in regards to deledio and cotchin, TAB have lids at $21, but have cotchin at $13  .. so either the bookies are wrong or we are .. its alittle concerning..    how did cotchin go last year in votes?
    also i see u dont have kennedy or danger in your list.. i have kennedy with 3 BOG's.. how many votes do u have those two on?

Last year Cotchin got 15 and Deledio only 5, However. As we know, lids was playing in defense the majority of last year so his votes would have been hindered. Too put it in to perspective, i had cotchin getting 14 last year and deledio 6 so it wasnt too far off the mark.This year niether player has had a bad game, but Cotchin just seems to be pipped in nearly every game. He has received one 2 and two 1's and the 2 was in a losing game against Carlton. So really out of the 5 wins he really hasnt polled, which is hard to beleive but i will stick by it.

I have Kennedy on 10 and Danger on 8 so they both just missed out on the list.

[upthemaidens]

the interesting thing in regards to deledio and cotchin, TAB have lids at $21, but have cotchin at $13  .. so either the bookies are wrong or we are .. its alittle concerning..    how did cotchin go last year in votes?
    also i see u dont have kennedy or danger in your list.. i have kennedy with 3 BOG's.. how many votes do u have those two on?

Last year Cotchin got 15 and Deledio only 5, However. As we know, lids was playing in defense the majority of last year so his votes would have been hindered. Too put it in to perspective, i had cotchin getting 14 last year and deledio 6 so it wasnt too far off the mark.This year niether player has had a bad game, but Cotchin just seems to be pipped in nearly every game. He has received one 2 and two 1's and the 2 was in a losing game against Carlton. So really out of the 5 wins he really hasnt polled, which is hard to beleive but i will stick by it.

I have Kennedy on 10 and Danger on 8 so they both just missed out on the list.

fair enough..  it just seemed odd that the bookies would have cotchin way ahead of lids(but they cant be right all the time).. 

[monstrum]

Is dane swan still eligable sfter his tripping charge this week against melbourne!?