2012 Brownlow Prediction

[MajorLazer]

How can we be sure you haven't cracked it? Would be awesome if you cracked even half of it.

[The Silent Partner]

Have you thought of a name for your website you my friend are onto something!!!!
I'll remember where I saw it.

[bomberboy0618]

My pick for the brownlow is Marc Murphy. Think its his year to shine.

[upthemaidens]

usman what was your hit/miss ratio last year with your predictions?
  if you were pretty close i dont think theres much reason to change a winning formula

i'll keep track of my brownlow vote predictions aswell, then if you do wish to share your results i will cross-check with mine and somehow try to come up with some juicy bets.

i do have a question though (anyone can answer) once the game is over are the umpires allowed to check out the game stats before submitting their votes?
   
  anyhow keep up the good work usman

[PowerBug]

shower, Usman you're a star! :D

[Usman]

usman what was your hit/miss ratio last year with your predictions?
  if you were pretty close i dont think theres much reason to change a winning formula

i'll keep track of my brownlow vote predictions aswell, then if you do wish to share your results i will cross-check with mine and somehow try to come up with some juicy bets.

i do have a question though (anyone can answer) once the game is over are the umpires allowed to check out the game stats before submitting their votes?
   
  anyhow keep up the good work usman

I did do an analysis on the hit and miss ratio of last years formula but i dont have the exact numbers on me (ill get them tonight) i think it was around 70% correct in guessing exactly who would get what votes in what round. Last years formula did pick Swan to win. while my previous formula from years before predicted Judd thats all i can remember exactly.

I would love it if we could get you to do another lot of your vote predictions aswell. I dare say madskills will do it again like he did last year, when he gets back from overseas because i think that was quite succesful. If we were able to get you in on it too maidens, with another point of view, it would be great!!!

Oh and BTW umpires are not allowed to lookk at stats after the game. So in essence what my formula tries to do is reward players for what the umps will remeber and see as a good performance. It favours midfielders but that is entirely due to midfielders being the most prominent on brownlow night. Josh Kennedy would not have recieved the 3 from me for saturday nights game Jack would have, but he did purely because he won the medal. Umps wont go against a panel of judges that had the stats in front of them to pick BOG, otherwise they may be made to look like idiots.

[Usman]

How can we be sure you haven't cracked it? Would be awesome if you cracked even half of it.

Haha i definately have not cracked it but its not bad haha. i dont want it too close to the Champion Data ranking points anyway, cause then i may aswell use thier scores and save myself hours of hassle haha

[upthemaidens]

yeah sure im happy to share my predictions,,  though its nowhere near has in depth as yours usman and i dont do a true count,its more of a guide to where players may come in team counts(which is where the decent bets seem to be more often)
   for example i wont do a 3-2-1(just think its too hard to know what the umpires are thinking) i'll give 3 to a stand-out player and then 1 vote to maybe 3,4 or 5 players in a game, with a bias to the winning side and also a slight bias to year in year out vote getters i.e. goodes,ablett,judd etc.      (it is rough,but has served me quite well the last few years)

[Usman]

Sounds good can't wait!!!

[MTTY]

Great to see you doing this again Usman, i have also developed a new stats system.

I have checked through all of Gws from Saturday but i still have to finish Sydney (have checked: Bird, Kennedy and Jack's scores so far)

From what i have checked so far, the highest are:

Craig Bird - 154 (153.66)

Josh Kennedy - 133.04 (although will get three given he won the medal)

Keiran Jack - 126.52

Rhys Palmer - 125.24

Chad Cornes - 124.84

Adam Kennedy - 123.55

[Usman]

That's great MTTY. Awesome to have another on board. Any chance you could post how you reward points? It looks heavily weighed towards possessions, which of course is justified and wise.

[MTTY]

That's great MTTY. Awesome to have another on board. Any chance you could post how you reward points? It looks heavily weighed towards possessions, which of course is justified and wise.

My points scoring is as follows:

Kicks = 2
Handballs = 1

Amount of disposals: 0-10(disposals)/+5% (The total score gained from kicks+handballs, Multiplied by 0.05 and then added onto original total score of kicks+handballs score, an example will be given after this section), 11-25/+8%, 26-39/+12%, 40+/+15%

Example: Scott Pendlebury:
                                         Kicks - 15 (30 points)
                                         Handballs - 12 (12 points)
                                         Total Disposals(Total points from disposals) - 27 (42 points)
42 x 0.12 = 5.04

So 5.04 is now added onto his total brownlow points score for the match which at this stage is 42, so he is now on 47.04

Contested Possession % = The total number of contested possessions divided by the total number of possessions. This is then multiplied by the total score of the kick+handball score and that is again added onto the total.

Example: Scott Pendlebury:
                                         Kicks - 15 (30 points)
                                         Handballs - 12 (12 points)
                                         Total Disposals(Total points from disposals) - 27 (42 points)
                                         Contested Possessions - 13

13 divided by 27 = 48%

42 multiplied by 0.48 = 20.16

So we then add 20.16 onto the overall brownlow score for the game, which at this stage is 47.04. So his score is now 67.2


Disposal Efficiency = Multiply the disposal efficiency by the total brownlow score from all of the above scoring stats so far.

Example: Scott Pendlebury:
                                         Kicks - 15 (30 points)
                                         Handballs - 12 (12 points)
                                         Total Disposals(Total points from disposals) - 27 (42 points)
                                         Contested Possessions - 13
                                         Disposal Efficiency% - 74%

So the total score from Pendlebury so far is 67.2

So 67.2 multiplied by 0.74 = 49.73


Marks = 4 points


Contested Mark% = The total number of contested marks divided by the total number of marks. That percentage is then multiplied by the total brownlow score of marks and is then added onto that total.

Example: Scott Pendlebury

                                       Marks - 3 (12 points)
                                       Contested Marks - 2

So 2 divided by 3 = 0.67

12 multiplied by 0.67 = 8.04

So the total score for the marks section is 20.04

So Pendlebury's total score thus far is 69.77


Hit-outs = 1 point

Clearances = 4 points

Inside 50's = 2 points

Rebound 50's = 2 points

Free's for/Free's against = 1/-1

Tackle = 2 points

One percenters = 3 points

Goals = 8 points

Behinds = 1 point

Goal Assists = 3 points

Its a bit complex but i can make it work.

[Usman]

That's great work, really detailed and I love the fact that our votes for the first game are similar yet different, should provide some good analysis throughout the year. Are you going to do every player or maybe the top 5-10 from each team using this formula cause it looks like it could take a while to do.

[MTTY]

That's great work, really detailed and I love the fact that our votes for the first game are similar yet different, should provide some good analysis throughout the year. Are you going to do every player or maybe the top 5-10 from each team using this formula cause it looks like it could take a while to do.

I may do all depending on time, but if not then i should be able to get a basic read on the top 10 from each game and do them.

[pavs nose]

haha looking back on my original scoring system makes it all look so simple. Im confident this new one is a vry accurate measure for how well a player has played and what the umps ill notice.

4 Kick
2 Handball
1 Disposal
2 Contested Possesion
1 Uncontested Possesion
1 Disposal Efficiency (%)
1 Mark
4 Contested Mark
2 Mark inside 50
1 Hit Out
4 Clearance
2 Inside 50
1.5 Rebound 50
2 Free For
3 Tackle
2 One percenter
3 Bounce
8 Goal
2 Behind
4 Goal Assist

ENJOY!

fyfe does all of these things regularly and in high volumes. that's it. the kids college fund is going on fyfe ;D