2012 Brownlow Prediction

[Usman]

Hey guys,

Thought i would start it up again this year. Was wondering if any of you guys had any preferences or suggestions as to how i should go about predicting the Brownlow, in order for you guys to hopefully benefit from it. Any feedback would be great.

Uzzie out.

[Ziplock]

Ablett


problem solved :P

I actually wasn't massively into this last year, but you could watch the games and then give out the votes based on how you thought the players went :P

and if you cbf watching the games (which tbh is fair enough :P ) get other people watching the games to do the voting for you. Maybe supporters from each team pick top 5 for the game,  then you kind of average it out :P

[CrowsFan]

Do exactly what you did last year usman. Worked wonders for my bank account :D

[TheMailman]

I'd have to go Ablett.

More settled, will basically actually play every game and GC improving gives him a bit more support.

[Usman]

I'd have to go Ablett.

More settled, will basically actually play every game and GC improving gives him a bit more support.

Sorry for he lack of explanation. Last year I started a brownlow prediction thread were I went trough everygame using stats (and me watching as many games as possible) to predict who would get brownlow votes using a scoring system much like supercoach to predict who would get brownlow votes in each game to try and win myself and others some cash. So the advice was really much more about how I should change the system to make it more accurate. I will pot the scoring system in more detail later so you guys can get a better idea however it does get a little complicated.

[elephants]

I loved your work last year mate. I am seriously considering looking for some value for money bets this year. I hear Fyfe is at some long odds for top 10 in the brownlow...?

[Usman]

the basic scoring system that was used to pedict brownlow votes for eeach game last year and years prior.

2 Possesions    
10 Goals   
3 Behinds   
8 Contested Mark   
2 tackles   
5 Clearences   
2 Contested   Possesion (additional)
2 Inside 50   
1 Hit Outs

This is the complicated one which i cannot be bothered going into full detail with becuase it actually does get quite complicated with bonuses for players reaching certain numbers for different football acts.(This year i aim to implement bell curves to try and make every game similar so high and low possesion games have no affect on which type of players are scoring higher. its a big ask though, dont know if i will have the time!!)

0.5 Possesions   
2.5 Kick   
1.5 Handball   
6.5 Goals   
2 Behinds   
4 Contested Mark   
1 Uncontested Mark   
1.5 Tackles   
2.5 Clearances   
0.5 Contested Possesion
1 Inside 50   
2 Assist   
0.5 Hitout   

The total is then multiplyed by the players efficency number. (so say a players score is 100 and their efficincy rate was 75% there score will be reduced to 75.) The real upside of this system was it brought defenders more into contention that went under the radar in the basic formula.

Any advice would be much appreciated. Please be nice  :P haha
                        

[The Silent Partner]

Hey Usman was just thinking about this I dont think you can really improve on what you have done other than watch every minute of every single game. I think it would be good to get everybodys pre season prediction got Swanny last year after searching for the ticket like a loony. P.s dont make it too complicated save that stuff for when you get your own gig with champion data or your own website. ;)

[Justin Bieber]

Look at the dp. It says it all.

[CrowsFan]

Agree with the silent partner, don't try and make it too complicated. It worked wonders last year for you. Plus how often do defenders actually get votes? Not much point making it fairer in your system to get votes when they barely get them anyway...

[Justin Bieber]

1. Pendles
2. Ablett
3. Judd
4. watson
5. franklin

Hence the Dp haha.

[Usman]

New scoring system coming this year. i will keep the old one of peoples choice aswell as a reference, but i am really pleased with the new one, its looking good so far ill post it when it is finalised. Let me know which scoring sytem you guys want to keep from last year.

[Usman]

haha looking back on my original scoring system makes it all look so simple. Im confident this new one is a vry accurate measure for how well a player has played and what the umps ill notice.

4 Kick
2 Handball
1 Disposal
2 Contested Possesion
1 Uncontested Possesion
1 Disposal Efficiency (%)
1 Mark
4 Contested Mark
2 Mark inside 50
1 Hit Out
4 Clearance
2 Inside 50
1.5 Rebound 50
2 Free For
3 Tackle
2 One percenter
3 Bounce
8 Goal
2 Behind
4 Goal Assist

ENJOY!

[Usman]

Round 1

GWS v Syd
3 J.Kennedy 130 (won the medal so he will get the 3 its as simple as that, umpires wont go against it.)
2 Jack 136
1 Bird 129

Palmer 126 unlucky to miss out
A.Kennedy 108 next best of the lot

Rich v Carl
3 Murphy 127
2 Cotchin 125
1 Kruezer 115

Both Carrazo 118 and Simpson 115 very unlucky to miss out in good games for both players. Another dissapointing game for a Richmond member of 10 years  ::)

[Usman]

these scores are uncannily close to SC scores. Have i cracked the Champion Data scoring system?!?!?! lol.

108 Adam Kennedy
100 Chad Cornes
104 Callan Ward
95 Toby Greene
106 James McDonald
126 Rhys Palmer
87 Tomas Bugg
50 Curtly Hampton
77 Jonathan Giles
78 Tim Mohr
62 Jack Hombsch
78 Will Hoskin-Elliot
57 Devon Smith
67 Phil Davis
57 Adam Tomlinson
67 Stephen Coniglio
43 Jacob Townsend
54 Jeremy Cameron
28 Nathan Wilson
35 Dylan Shiel
24 Dom Tyson
34 Israel Folau

129 Craig Bird
136 Kieren Jack
94 Lewis Jetta
101 Jude Bolton
130 Josh P. Kennedy
96 Shane Mumford
87 Nicholas Smith
66 Heath Grundy
93 Ted Richards
97 Adam Goodes
88 Nick Malceski
81 Gary Rohan
77 Alex Johnson
82 Sam Reid
91 Jarrad McVeigh
64 Ben McGlynn
64 Andrejs Everitt
58 Martin Mattner
55 Luke Parker
55 Lewis Roberts-Thomson
39 Daniel Hannebery
14 Harry Cunningham