Best Case/ Worst case bye scenario

Started by Usman, February 29, 2012, 05:07:35 PM

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Usman

has an one done a realistic worst case scenario for the possible donuts your team could recieve during the bye rounds? its obviously hard to judge sue to injuries, suspension and rookie selection but far out it is scary when you put your team through the ringer and say well these guys have byes this round what if he doesnt get picked that week, and so on?

Best case for me i recieve 1 donut over all three bye rounds
Worst case i recieve 11 (this is accounting for one player in every postiton to not be selected in each line everyweek that does not have a bye for whatever reason)

I dont even know if this is right?? its so confusing when you try and judge who will be traded out by then. Also once they are traded you need to remeber that they have to be traded to another player who might have the bye in round 12 or 13 making it almost vital not to have more than 2 players from each line in your initial team with a round 11 bye.

upthemaidens

dude dont worry about it, just light up a doobie and chillax ;D  nah but really  there are just so many things that u cant control, just hope for the best.  everyones gunna cop way more than they think,, id say if u get away with 5 donuts u have done pretty good..

Justin Bieber

Just don't start with Boyd, rockcliff and cox. Then upgrade to them to avoid byes...

upthemaidens

Quote from: whatlez on February 29, 2012, 05:21:29 PM
Just don't start with Boyd, rockcliff and cox. Then upgrade to them to avoid byes...
the thing isnt that whatlez, its if ANY player who is meant to be playing isnt u will cop a zero. trades will be used to try and help with bye effected players not ones that  go to arizona for 15 days, or suspended or rested or rookies that just dont get named

Justin Bieber

Quote from: upthemaidens on February 29, 2012, 05:34:12 PM
Quote from: whatlez on February 29, 2012, 05:21:29 PM
Just don't start with Boyd, rockcliff and cox. Then upgrade to them to avoid byes...
the thing isnt that whatlez, its if ANY player who is meant to be playing isnt u will cop a zero. trades will be used to try and help with bye effected players not ones that  go to arizona for 15 days, or suspended or rested or rookies that just dont get named
Yeah so you trade those players in at rd 12 and 13 because there bye is over

upthemaidens

Quote from: whatlez on February 29, 2012, 05:49:58 PM
Quote from: upthemaidens on February 29, 2012, 05:34:12 PM
Quote from: whatlez on February 29, 2012, 05:21:29 PM
Just don't start with Boyd, rockcliff and cox. Then upgrade to them to avoid byes...
the thing isnt that whatlez, its if ANY player who is meant to be playing isnt u will cop a zero. trades will be used to try and help with bye effected players not ones that  go to arizona for 15 days, or suspended or rested or rookies that just dont get named
Yeah so you trade those players in at rd 12 and 13 because there bye is over
well yeah u will trade in players that have had the bye,,
your 3 trades are just to trade out rd12 bye players(for example) in rd12, if anyone else doesnt play u will get a donut and the chances of all 22 players that are meant to play actually play is very unlikely

PICCOLLO

Take a breath and rethink it.  Write out ur changes each round and ull see that you get 2 zeroes as best case scenario.  Once youve written it out, look at who u want to get in and then think how you can get them in there.  Whatlez et al make some good points.

Justin Bieber

All you do is get all your rookies to play first bye (GWS, Lions, etc)

Then trade them out to get better like Cox, Boyd, Rockcliff.

Usman

Quote from: whatlez on February 29, 2012, 08:35:59 PM
All you do is get all your rookies to play first bye (GWS, Lions, etc)

Then trade them out to get better like Cox, Boyd, Rockcliff.

The only problem is you wont have the money/ trades to make these swaps.

Im not too concerned about the byes really, i just though i would see what other teams had in terms of WC/ BC scenario although it is impossible to guess. The bye issue itself is more complex than people first understand, there are strategies that could work for the wise and lucky, but it could hurt your team if the strategy does not pay off for whatever reason.

Justin Bieber

Trade one down, trade one up. But there the players you want.

Fletch74

Quote from: PICCOLLO on February 29, 2012, 08:11:08 PM
Take a breath and rethink it.  Write out ur changes each round and ull see that you get 2 zeroes as best case scenario.  Once youve written it out, look at who u want to get in and then think how you can get them in there.  Whatlez et al make some good points.
This is what I'm coming up with as well. I can cover all positions on the field based on the current salary of course, except for the Rucks. The fact that there are only 4 rucks means that you will have to cop 2 donuts somewhere, unless you trade up/down to the likes of Roughead, Hale, or Sellar, etc where you can move them into those positions...

I see them as a waste of a trade though.

Quote from: whatlez on March 01, 2012, 05:36:45 PM
Trade one down, trade one up. But there the players you want.
Your theory is correct, but it's unlikey that you will be able to have the cash, as there may not be a trade down worth bringing in either.

The truth is you can not really plan for the byes ATM!

Ringo

Best case scenario is 2 donuts over the byes one in Round 12 and one in Round 13. Pure Maths dictates it if you have 22 players in Round 11 based on the 8/11/11 strategy then no donuts in Round 11. 3 trades allowed in Round 12  so you structure becomes 11/8/11 but one of the 8 is a ruck so 1 donut.  Similar for Round 13. No matter how hard I try even using DPP can not 2 donuts. Try as has been said setting your draft strategy out with trades and you will soon come to this conclusion. With possible injuries etc  any that come through with 3 or less donuts will have done well.

Justin Bieber


Usman

Quote from: Ringo on March 06, 2012, 08:58:43 PM
Best case scenario is 2 donuts over the byes one in Round 12 and one in Round 13. Pure Maths dictates it if you have 22 players in Round 11 based on the 8/11/11 strategy then no donuts in Round 11. 3 trades allowed in Round 12  so you structure becomes 11/8/11 but one of the 8 is a ruck so 1 donut.  Similar for Round 13. No matter how hard I try even using DPP can not 2 donuts. Try as has been said setting your draft strategy out with trades and you will soon come to this conclusion. With possible injuries etc  any that come through with 3 or less donuts will have done well.


After realising i made an excell spreadsheet mistake my BC scenario is enevitably what everyone is saying. 2 donuts no matter what the trades.  ::)

Fletch74

#14
Unless you trade you have DPP rucks, which seems pointless.