Why J. Brown?

Started by MC, February 07, 2012, 01:29:51 AM

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charliesheen

Quote from: Speculator on February 07, 2012, 02:16:45 PM
Just take a look at the retards around his price range, Milne, Nicoski, Garlett, McGrath, Vickery. Brown stands head and shoulders above all of them. Quite clearly his price is the main reason for his popularity, and rightly so.

lol great post..  if your paying <400k for someone, there is always going to be some risk involved, and this does not just apply to J.Brown.

With the larger magic number, you need to have these type of picks in your team.  Whether you decide to have them in your mid field, forward, or back line is dependent on how confident you are in the pick.  Personally, I like the forward options, but you may feel differently.

Compared to other picks, J.Brown has the runs on the board and has a very desirable bye.  Nick Riewoldt is the other one, but I guess people got burnt too badly from him last year.

Torress

a less than 400k jono brown off a big pre season is locked!
he started his preseason when there was around 5-8 rounds still to go in last year's season. training reports indicate and he has said that he has not missed a beat. first full pre season in like 5 years.

underpriced forwards are gold mate, you can't pick buddy,stevieJ, pav, goodes all from the get go.
and also i think alot of people are underestimating the lions this year. they had a lot of injuries, have blooded youth and by memory they didn't cop too many floggings late - just early after their horrid injury run. and i'm pretty sure they started the season 2011 on fire!! they are a chance for the 8 don't worry about that!

MC has he burnt you b4 or something? how could you not pick him should be 1st forward picked. priced at a 73 average and will go 100 average imo.

burner11

Torress and every other positive comment summed it up, Cheap, Will score higher than 73 more consistently than any other around his price, I'd rather him scoring 75 to who knows what on his day compared to the others scoring one 130 then 40s to 80s, Even when he doesn't score he moves up the ground for some cheapies ;-)

MC

#18
Quote from: Torress on February 07, 2012, 02:52:30 PM
a less than 400k jono brown off a big pre season is locked!
he started his preseason when there was around 5-8 rounds still to go in last year's season. training reports indicate and he has said that he has not missed a beat. first full pre season in like 5 years.

underpriced forwards are gold mate, you can't pick buddy,stevieJ, pav, goodes all from the get go.
and also i think alot of people are underestimating the lions this year. they had a lot of injuries, have blooded youth and by memory they didn't cop too many floggings late - just early after their horrid injury run. and i'm pretty sure they started the season 2011 on fire!! they are a chance for the 8 don't worry about that!

MC has he burnt you b4 or something? how could you not pick him should be 1st forward picked. priced at a 73 average and will go 100 average imo.

Nah not particularly, but I can imagine he'll be one to hurt a few this year. Can't justify NOT spending an extra 50k on Sidebottom for instance, who for me is definitely on the improve and will outscore Brown easily. I was just browsing through his stats the other day from interest (given all of the hype) and noticed that his scores in the past 5 years haven't been all that fantastic. Yeah he'll pull out a massive one here and there (though perhaps that aspect of his game is finished if he's trimming down so much) but he'll still miss too many games and have a few stinkers which has deterred me. Could be proven wrong, but i'm only saying to think carefully before loading up on all of these high-risk cheaper options. They're cheap for a reason, and (without data to support me) i'd say that nearly half will fail. 

Quote from: burner11 on February 07, 2012, 04:57:10 PM
Torress and every other positive comment summed it up, Cheap, Will score higher than 73 more consistently than any other around his price, I'd rather him scoring 75 to who knows what on his day compared to the others scoring one 130 then 40s to 80s, Even when he doesn't score he moves up the ground for some cheapies ;-)

Every 'positive comment' supports your decision so you're obviously happy to hear them! Anyway, hopefully NOT having him will set me apart from the rest of the pack.

My only dislike of the 'Rate My Team' section is that it soon becomes 'Copy My Team' - where the aim is to have the team that is the most socially accepted.

burner11

I see where your coming from MC,
Just for his price he'll make money unless he runs into a goal post or something in the first 3 rounds and fractures his skull, A freak fwd or fwd/mid rookie might get to 300k and beyond but it'll only be 1 or 2 AND they might get vested too which will hurt, so for the sake of 100k more profit with a rookie ya gotta take these risks

MC

Yeah but I couldn't give a stuff about a 400k player making money - if i'm spending that sort of cash I need some assurance that he'll put the runs on the board... It's no good if he has a poor few games at the start - say he drops to 350kish and people start to panic in rd4 or 5 (if not earlier knowing the old trigger happy traders around lol) in that case - who the eff is coming in to replace him?

This is obviously contrary to the popular opinion so I don't mind people trying to shoot me down - just be cautious!

burner11

Quote from: MC on February 07, 2012, 06:35:10 PM
Yeah but I couldn't give a stuff about a 400k player making money - if i'm spending that sort of cash I need some assurance that he'll put the runs on the board... It's no good if he has a poor few games at the start - say he drops to 350kish and people start to panic in rd4 or 5 (if not earlier knowing the old trigger happy traders around lol) in that case - who the eff is coming in to replace him?

This is obviously contrary to the popular opinion so I don't mind people trying to shoot me down - just be cautious!

Not trying to shoot ya down mate ;-), I'm gonna take the risk, If he scores well that's one saved trade, risk and luck is all this game is lol..so...good luck

ArthurDent

Quote from: cortez on February 07, 2012, 01:36:51 PM
I know he will have some big scores, how good he is isn't the issue. The issue is how long it is before he breaks down. I love him and for his sake i hope he plays 22 games and kicks 80 goals but  i dont have enough confidence that he can play 22 games.

he hasn't broken down for a good while, he had AC problem in 09, in '10 it was just facial injuries, not his body failing on him, which would suggest complete recovery from previous niggles, his first full preseason in 10 years. the time spent off for facial fractures gave him time to do some work on his body, I would say he is as fit and ready now as he has been in a long time

there is no Brian Lake type risk of injury I can see, and for the price he must be a bargin (will be 600k plus by mid season)

St.FatBoy

I too agree that at the 400k mark J.Brown is a worthwhile risk, pending a satisfactory NAB campaign.  He's a known marking machine and finishes off well.  With Redden/Rockliff feeding him the pill there will be no shortage of supply.  The big risk is he's 30+ so you can't tak on too many of those.  If he fails then you offload for a rookie, bank 250k (lose 50k) and move on.  That's SC fellas

SonsOfZeus

bro u mentioned NROO cmon... missed most 2010 and has had knee surgery in the off season. im the biggest saints fan in australia and i know JB will average more than him. to be in the top 7 forward he will need to average around 100 and he is capable of that.

if ya want the 50 000 you cant get to far behind early because you just cant catch it up. he has no real contradictory byes.
wouldnt be surprised if he isnt up there in the moist populare picked.

MC

Quote from: SonsOfZeus on February 07, 2012, 10:33:01 PM
bro u mentioned NROO cmon... missed most 2010 and has had knee surgery in the off season. im the biggest saints fan in australia and i know JB will average more than him. to be in the top 7 forward he will need to average around 100 and he is capable of that.

if ya want the 50 000 you cant get to far behind early because you just cant catch it up. he has no real contradictory byes.
wouldnt be surprised if he isnt up there in the moist populare picked.

Don't doubt that - once again, popularity contest. I won't be picking Nroo either, but i'd say he's capable of some decent scores. My team will be different - and that's how you would win the 50k, not by having the EXACT team as every man and his dog.

Trust me when I say i've taken risks - just not the same 'risks' that 100,000 people will take.

PICCOLLO

Quote from: St.FatBoy on February 07, 2012, 09:29:23 PM
I too agree that at the 400k mark J.Brown is a worthwhile risk, pending a satisfactory NAB campaign.  He's a known marking machine and finishes off well.  With Redden/Rockliff feeding him the pill there will be no shortage of supply.  The big risk is he's 30+ so you can't tak on too many of those.  If he fails then you offload for a rookie, bank 250k (lose 50k) and move on.  That's SC fellas

+1
his body is good atm and injury has given it rest over past years.  He is planning to play a couple of NAB games.  If he takes some grabs and leads up the ground, ill be on him.

strikes91

as he said last year. "the body will be fine for 2012, I don't run on my face"

he's in an area with other players who are just shower scorers. why would ya not get him

charliesheen

j. brown is finished.  his all mine... all mineeeeee

Ringo

A couple of factors to consider for Brown
(1) His injuries last year were facial only and while out of the game this allowed his other niggling injuries time to heal.
(2) Doing his first full pre season in 10 years and is a little lighter than previous years. Has stated he will be playing at least 3 of the pre season games so watch.
(3) Will probably be given sole captaincy of Brisbane this year and as we know leads by example.
(4) With the improving mid field in Brisbane will get better quality ball coming in. (If Rich not tagged as much this year his boot to Brown will be lethal),
(5) SC rewards marks on a lead and Brown takes his fair sure in a game. As well he will average at least 3 goals per game

Believe Brown will average at least 90 this year which more than justifies his price at just below $400k.