Franklin

[WillDel]

Will probably get laughed down, but people have asked me this and then put forward arguments so i figure ide bring it up.

To start or not too start... he is $600,000

To maintain this price he needs to average OVER 120.

Just had a real look at 2011 V 2012
           
Rd.                          2011                                                 2012
1.   72                    Adelaide                                              Collingwood           
2.   108                  Melbourne                                            Geelong             
3.   147                  Richmond                                             Adelaide             
4.   146                  West Coast                                           WCE               
5.   95                    Geelong                                               Sydney       
6.                                                                                     St. Kilda
7.   114                  Port Adelaide                                          Melbourne                 
8.   122                  St Kilda                                                 Freo         
9.   146                  Sydney                                                 Richmond         
10.   109                WB                                                       North

If we make the assumption that he gets his predicted average of 111 [which is around where he floated since 2008 bar 2009 (88)]
Then by round 10 his price will be $549,000. Now this $51,000 drop isn't huge. And it can be difficult to gauge Franklin.
Collingwood, Geelong, West Coast and Sydney should be able to limit him somewhat. But you would expect a bumper score against the Crows at home. However last year he only scored the 72. If he scored in similar fashion to last year (using last years scores averaged against each team)

Collingwood         79    66              72.5
Geelong              95    93   85       91
Adelaide             72                      72
WCE                   146                     146
Sydney               146  95               120.5
St Kilda              122                     122
Melbourne           108  132             120
Freo                  63                       63
Richmond           147                     147
North                 96                       96

Then by round 10 he is sitting on $535,772.

This is all theoretical and in the end will he score better (higher/more consistently) than any other FWD you could replace him with? Probably. Still an interesting decision either way, we saw something similar with the the small few who chose to forgo Goddard last year. Picking him up on the cheap later.

[upthemaidens]

he will score as well as anyone..  either start with him or upgrade to him, either way you'll want him at some point.
  really depends if u can afford him and what your structure is.
the amount u save with getting him later will that outweigh the points u lose,, if he drops to $530k, u saved 70k ,but maybe lose 5 points a game until u get him...
   how many ways to skin a cat?

[bowyanger]

each position on my team has players that are must haves.

BJ

GAJ

FRANKS

etc

Your saving a valuable trade by starting with them

Trades > $$$ saved

[DT-SC]

363986 join classy players only

[upthemaidens]

each position on my team has players that are must haves.

BJ

GAJ

FRANKS

etc

Your saving a valuable trade by starting with them

Trades > $$$ saved

your not really saving a trade, because instead u would have(lets say) pavlich, and then trade in franklin.  or you have franklin and trade in pavlich, either way.
the thread is not a rookie instead of franklin, its another premium instead of franklin.. well atleast thats what a figured was the argument, i could be wrong

[CrowsFan]

Can someone explain to me why he has to average 120 to maintain his price? I thought prices were based on the average from last year, so for Franklin 110. Doesn't that mean he only needs to average 110 to maintain his price?

[Capper]

Can someone explain to me why he has to average 120 to maintain his price? I thought prices were based on the average from last year, so for Franklin 110. Doesn't that mean he only needs to average 110 to maintain his price?

Does it really matter??? You need to be more worried about this for people (usually cash cows) you are going to trade out a player or a player to upgrade to

[WillDel]

your not really saving a trade, because instead u would have(lets say) pavlich, and then trade in franklin.  or you have franklin and trade in pavlich, either way.
the thread is not a rookie instead of franklin, its another premium instead of franklin.. well atleast thats what a figured was the argument, i could be wrong

+1 That's pretty much spot on to what i was thinking. I didnt clarify that point well.

Essentially im discussing the worth of picking a prem priced-very highly with a high risk of going down. Or a prem priced-lowerish with a good chance of increasing in value. In the end ill aim to have both. Every little win could mean being able to afford the players i need towards the pointy end of the season. Im not wasting a trade. At worst im wasting early points.

CrowsFan - I dont really want to plug another site but i used the salary calculator on tooserious.net
http://tooserious.net/player_calc.php?&id=278&pcid=16242&name=Lance%20Franklin

Tinkering with that tool is quite interesting. If you factor in career average against each team the best time to buy Franklin is Rd 8. But taking into account his first 3 years isnt really an accurate sample of next year.

[Torress]

i've been thinking about this as well. untill NAB my team feels fairly settled. and i have buddy in but have tinkered with him out.
i guess we need to look at all the prems we start with - how many undervalued ect.

fair point with GOD WillDell but he was valued with a 130 average!!! not a 110 average like buddy.
thing is with buddy he can break a 150 BE from no man's land. last i heard he was smashing preseason. risky if you don't start IMO.
i think buddy is pretty much locked for mine - only dusty in my forwards priced over 500k. there are some good cheaper options after that and i feel i can easily find room for buddy at 600k.

[WillDel]

Yeah, good point. I will probably eventually end up taking him. Just thought it was an interesting topic.

I see all these people loading up with these outright guns (who will score well) but each one will lose a min 50-60k and if you have 1-2 on each line then you are losing the same amount of cash that say a Zorko will get you as a cash cow.

There's a right time to buy and a wrong time to buy.

[bowyanger]

I have tried a similar strategy to this this 3 times in the past.

Whilst it almost guarantees a league win, overall suffers majorly...mind you the strategy I had back then left me with around 200k in the bank (not having anyone over 550K on my team at rd 1)....so I did save a lot on premiums dropping and for the last few rounds my team value was predominately around only 200k short of the overall front runners value.

For the last 2 seasons Ive gone premiums & rooks and stayed right away from mid pricers...I havnt worried if a player will drop in price and will be available at a cheaper price later...Ive accepted that a 50k drop is peanuts when most of your rooks increase by approx. 150K min...it cancels each other out (IMO)

When I was playing along to a similar strategy as you have posted here...I was banging around the 100k overall....the last 2 years Ive been inside the top 10K when spending all my money up front and not being concerned about price drops.

Ive found initial team set up is 50% important to overall success.

of the remaining I reckon 30% is luck

[BillyBass]

In reality almost all premiums are going to lose value, due to the magic number and the increase in price of the rookies. As u said WillDel premiums need to increase scores by 10% to maintain value. As others have said there comes a point where scores > $$$$ in the bank. Finding a balance between top end premiums (GJ, Pendles, Buddy etc) and potentially underpriced premiums (Selwood, Martin) is most important. 

[Maca24]

The premium argument comes down to which ones do you want to start with, and which ones do you want to have as upgrade targets? Obviously you cant start with them all, so I'll be looking at Buddy for an upgrade. Hard opponents early and the big price tag has scared me off for now.

[cortez]

Pav, goodes and buddy. Your going to want all of them in the end but unless you want to over stock your forward line your not going to start them all. With players like that it doesnt matter who you start with they will all avg about the same and can have a huge score against anyone on there day. Personally im starting with pav. And got two more spots to upgrade later in the year and they will be goodes and buddy.

[charliesheen]

depends on who takes his spot and secondly how you utilize the remaining cash from not going Buddy.

If you can fit Buddy in, you may as well start him.  If you need to squeeze pennies to fit in another player, switching Buddy with another premium that you are certain will be in top 10 forward will help.