WHO PLAYS WHO IN FIRST 10 ROUNDS...

[ShaynoB]

Hello!

Like everyone, I am eagerly awaiting DT to open up and for the season to kick off, so i thought i would just look at who plays who in the first 10 rounds. With the byes as they are this year we have to be careful about who we pick and how many from each team. I know this isnt always the best guide as some teams will improve from last year and others decrease from last year, but just curious as to which teams could be great to get players from. As below ive just looked at each team and from the first 10 rounds, how many of those games are against top 8 teams from last year.

Adel â€" 5 (2 at home)
Bris â€" 5 (4 at home)
Carl â€" 3 (2 at home)
Coll â€" 4 (2 at home)
Essen â€" 3 (1 at home)
Freo â€" 6 (3 at home)
Geel â€" 2 (1 at home)
GCS â€" 3 (1 at home)
GWS â€" 5 (3 at home)
Hawth â€" 5 (3 at home)
Melb â€" 7 (2 at home)
North â€" 5 (2 at home)
Port â€" 5 (3 at home)
Rich â€" 8 (4 at home)
St Kil â€" 4 (3 at home)
Syd â€" 2 (nil at home)
W.Bull â€" 5 (4 at home)
WCE - 3 (2 at home)

I know with some of them they might be playing at home and the opposition also plays at that ground anyways, but they will have the "home" support. Normally Melb & Rich (not so much Freo), arent to highest DT scoring teams, although they might improve again this year, you would have to be nervous about their opening fixtures. There has been alot on talk about do you pick Goodes? Heppell? Christensen? and i would have to say with their respective teams and who they play against, you would have to think they would be good choices. The AFL has really looked after the top 8 teams from last year. 7 of the top 8 from last year (Hawks being the only one), only play another top 8 team either 2, 3 or 4 times. 

Anyways not sure if this will help anyone or not but definately opened my eyes a little bit as to who i may or may not pick.

[Colliwobblers]

great post and it is well worth the look, the biggest stand out from the list id the start Richmond has, very very tough, but will it stop any of us from starting with the premiums, lids, martin, or the midpricers/risks in conca, cotchin, houli, or the super popular rooks ellis and morris?

But i for one will be paying close attention to who plas who and your post puts it all in one nice easy to take in place, so +1 great work.

[ShaynoB]

Thanks Colli!!

Yeah like you said very interesting about Richmonds start. Does them playing the top teams maybe help the mid and def as the ball may spend a fair amount of time in those areas? Or does it affect the mid and def? I dont think (besides Martin) that many people will go to many Tigers fwds anyways so its really how the def is seet up.

For me, i know there has been heaps of talk and stats around Goodes and hes starts normally but Sydneys opening draw is to hard to refuse not starting him. Surely this locks Mummy in most teams to. Only decent rucks he plays in that stretch is Sandi, Hmac/Goldy and McEvoy...

[Colliwobblers]

you have to look at the goodes thres, a certain, well i'd like to say "friend" of mine, lays out some stats that show goodes performs not only owrst in the first half of the year, but worst also against the bottom sides.

interesting indeed, but stats my friend don't lie.

[milisha]

I've done my own analysis for the first 5 rounds.

Methodology:
To gauge the relative strength of a team, I took the number of points from last years home and away ladder. So Collingwood finished with 80 points, Geelong on 76 points, etc... all the way down to Gold Coast and Port on 12 points. I assumed that GWS will have the same strength as GC last year (12 points).

Then for each team for each of the 5 rounds I wrote the strength of each opponent. Eg, in round 1, Richmond plays Carlton, so I added Carltons score of 58 to Richmond's tally, and Richmonds score of 34 to Carlton's tally.

Finally I sorted by the average over the first 5 rounds:


Team   Pts   1   2   3   4   5    Avg
StK   50   12   12   36   36   34    26.00
ADE   28   12   36   72   12   12    28.80
SYD   50   12   36   12   40   72    34.40
GC   12   28   50   46   16   40    36.00
WCE   68   36   34   12   72   34    37.60
WB   36   68   28   50   34   12    38.40
NM   40   46   12   76   50   12    39.20
GEE   76   36   72   40   34   16    39.60
ESS   46   40   12   12   58   80    40.40
MEL   34   16   68   34   36   50    40.80
CAR   58   34   16   80   46   36    42.40
BRIS   16   34   58   36   12   76    43.20
GWS   12   50   40   68   28   36    44.40
COL   80   72   34   58   12   46    44.40
FRE   36   76   50   16   50   58    50.00
PORT   12   50   46   50   80   28    50.80
HAW   72   80   76   28   68   50    60.40
RIC   34   58   80   34   76   68    63.20

By my calculations St Kilda has the easiest start over 5 rounds, following by Adelaide and Sydney.
Hawthorn and Richmond have the hardest draws.

[ShaynoB]

Nice Milisha!! That's pretty well done... Only thing is it still doesn't entice me to choose any extra Saint, Crows or Swans players. Haha! I have Goddard, Goodes and Thompson ATM but no one else really stands out to me.

Like Colli and i have said above does Richmond have the draw they do help there players or not???

[milisha]

Yeah, I know; I haven't used the info to full advantage either.
I've only got Goddard and Thompson myself - and probably would have taken Goddard anyway. It did help entice me to pick GAblett over other similarly priced players though.

[DT Gun]

Yeah, I know; I haven't used the info to full advantage either.
I've only got Goddard and Thompson myself - and probably would have taken Goddard anyway. It did help entice me to pick GAblett over other similarly priced players though.

Do you really need help picking gablett over others priced the same?

[bunyip]

As a wise man once said (I forget who) " There are lies, damn lies, and statistics"
Stats are really just a way of recording events that have already occurred. They help, but I think they must be used with caution. It's impossible to predict with much certainty how anyone is going to perform next season. The great players are consistant, but we can only afford a few of them.
A few teams have new coaches this season, so maybe they will be more inclined to play promising young players. I'll be watching the NAB cup very closely this season.

[milisha]

Do you really need help picking gablett over others priced the same?

There's always method behind my madness. ;-)

While what bunyip says is true - that past performance is no guarantee of future performance (sounds like a financial advice advert) - even the pre-season form can be dangerous. I remember people suggesting Trent Dennis-Lane (SYD) was going to have his breakout year after kicking something like 7 goals in a preseason match last year. I think he ended up averaging a little over 30 dt points.

[Dudge]

Do you really need help picking gablett over others priced the same?

There's always method behind my madness. ;-)

While what bunyip says is true - that past performance is no guarantee of future performance (sounds like a financial advice advert) - even the pre-season form can be dangerous. I remember people suggesting Trent Dennis-Lane (SYD) was going to have his breakout year after kicking something like 7 goals in a preseason match last year. I think he ended up averaging a little over 30 dt points.

I agree with the pre-season  stuff. Normally ,it's a great guide, and mostly our only guide for the season. But there has been plenty of great white hopes, that have sat on my bench for a big part of the season due to 2/3 great NAB games I think a bit of gut feeling goes a long way in this game

[bunyip]

No doubt. My gut feeling last season turned into a headache. I took a chance on 3 or 4 players and they all failed

[Kuruki]

Hello Nick reiwoldt

[Purple 77]

Big fan of this analysis! Very useful

[PowerBug]

No doubt. My gut feeling last season turned into a headache. I took a chance on 3 or 4 players and they all failed

Haha, that's not bad, i did this last year:

Carrazo >> Chad Cornes (straight after one 30odd from Carrots)
Chad Cornes >> Ryan Hargrave (After one 80 from Hargrave)

^Bad Gut^

Rookie upgrade >> Priddis (Rd 7)
Lobbe >> Mumford (Just before finals)

^Good Gut^