Can we get our sides completed by the byes?

Off Tap · January 21, 2012, 09:39:22 PM

It will be interesting to hear from you when you believe your side should be completed by.

As we all know 2012 is a bit unique where we have to take into account head to heads starting from Round 3, the byes in Rounds 11, 12 and 13 and the 9 trades we can make during the byes.

Conversation has centered around the team structures that will best suit the bye rounds and how to avoid donuts. People have also been talking about bringing in premiums after the byes thus avoiding the dreaded zero.

I believe any good starting side should have a minimum of 14 starting premiums over your 4 lines. This will give you a couple of mid pricers as well. Any less than this and you will have too many mid pricers which will depend on luck in getting them to premium status. If you're off in any of your selections of mid pricers then you will fall too far behind in your scoring to catch the leaders.

Barring injury you're going to need a minimum of 12 trades and 6 rounds to get to a full squad with 14 starting premiums and 2 keeper mids. 15 starting premiums will take you 14 trades and 7 rounds to a full squad.

Last year I had my side completed, bar 2 mid priced backs in Stanley and Lower which I carried, by the end of Round 11. I was lucky enough to score Fyfe and Shiels that saved me upgrades to premiums. I chewed up a couple of sideways trades for injury and another couple to restruture my side after 3 rounds.

With this in mind I believe that a good side that should be in the running for a top placing should just about be nearly complete by the byes. All this fuss over picking a starting side that best suits the byes might be a bit over rated.

Does anyone else think that we will be able to trade our side into a position to avoid donuts instead of focusing on the perfect squad to start off with?

upthemaidens · January 21, 2012, 09:55:17 PM

lets say that you dont need to do any trades after rd.10(your team is complete) you will take atleast 8 donuts during byes. u will need to trade during byes to avoid donuts, so if u have a full premium team by rd.11 u will have to sideways trade to limit the donuts. and that will leave you with very few trades for the last half of the season

Cicjose · January 21, 2012, 10:00:33 PM

they will be complete no earlier than after the last bye round

youl_R_FCK · January 21, 2012, 10:31:36 PM

Sorry don't know how to add topics yet but any more news on the loop whole in round 1 going? Will make a difference between starting a swan player in my side for the double chance or not

Off Tap · January 21, 2012, 11:36:23 PM

Quote from: upthemaidens on January 21, 2012, 09:55:17 PM
lets say that you dont need to do any trades after rd.10(your team is complete) you will take atleast 8 donuts during byes. u will need to trade during byes to avoid donuts, so if u have a full premium team by rd.11 u will have to sideways trade to limit the donuts. and that will leave you with very few trades for the last half of the season

That makes sense.

What value would you put on each donut received in rounds 11 - 13 if you decide to cop the 8?

Will 8 cost say 480 or would it be closer to 800?

Maybe points wise you would be better of having a set side early and try to limit the damage with some sideways trades during the byes and hope to hell you don't get any injuries at the back end of the season.

upthemaidens · January 22, 2012, 12:47:01 AM

Quote from: Off Tap on January 21, 2012, 11:36:23 PM
Quote from: upthemaidens on January 21, 2012, 09:55:17 PM
lets say that you dont need to do any trades after rd.10(your team is complete) you will take atleast 8 donuts during byes. u will need to trade during byes to avoid donuts, so if u have a full premium team by rd.11 u will have to sideways trade to limit the donuts. and that will leave you with very few trades for the last half of the season

That makes sense.

What value would you put on each donut received in rounds 11 - 13 if you decide to cop the 8?

Will 8 cost say 480 or would it be closer to 800?

Maybe points wise you would be better of having a set side early and try to limit the damage with some sideways trades during the byes and hope to hell you don't get any injuries at the back end of the season.

yeah maybe it is better to complete the team early and cop more donuts,,
it will be fairly hard to complete the team by rd.10, but im sure it can be done.
ok so how many trades are needed to complete a team,?
lets say u need 8 upgrades, figure about 8 downgrades to go with that. so thats 16 trades, do lets say 4 sideways trades during byes. so you will cop 4 zero's(minimum) and have 4 trades to last 11-12 weeks.. its risky, but maybe the way to go

Colliwobblers · January 22, 2012, 01:09:16 AM

ok without DPP Rucks

1. It is a given you will need to use 6 trades over the round 12 and 13 byes
2. It is a given you will get two unavoidable donuts.

So i would personnaly want some of those trades to be used as upgrade /downgrades so that they are not wasted trades used only to avoid donuts.

If you complete your team by round 10, why?

Just so you can take donuts over the bye rounds?

Why wouldnt you go into round 11 with the 8-11-11 structure not trade in 11
trade 3 in 12 to change to 11-8-11
trade 3 in 13 to change to ?-?-8

that avoids all donuts except the two you have two have (its due to rucks as we all know 2 cant be avoided over the byes without having dpp rucks which all suck as we all also know)

So yeah my answer is to structure team around the byes somewhat and trade through the byes to achieve what you would do anyway (upgrades and downgrades) over the byes while also avoiding donuts by doing so.

make sense ? any at all ?

as for when my side is completed, well for upgrades and downgrades i would think 13 14 at worst

popedelio · January 22, 2012, 01:40:07 AM

I reckon the best way to set up your team is by semi overloading on rd 11 rookies, before rd 11 upgrade most of those rd 11 players to have a balanced side for byes with the setup 8/11/11. the rd 12 and 13 rookies you have, you will upgrade according to your byes, giving you the full premium side after rd 13.

Colliwobblers · January 22, 2012, 01:53:34 AM

Quote from: popedelio on January 22, 2012, 01:40:07 AM
I reckon the best way to set up your team is by semi overloading on rd 11 rookies, before rd 11 upgrade most of those rd 11 players to have a balanced side for byes with the setup 8/11/11. the rd 12 and 13 rookies you have, you will upgrade according to your byes, giving you the full premium side after rd 13.

yep thats pretty much it except doesnt matter what rookies you have if your upgrading downgrading them just having the 8-11-11 structure to start round 11 is all that matters (unless you want extra donuts)

Roy.G.Biv · January 22, 2012, 02:20:09 AM

Quote from: Colliwobblers on January 22, 2012, 01:53:34 AM
Quote from: popedelio on January 22, 2012, 01:40:07 AM
I reckon the best way to set up your team is by semi overloading on rd 11 rookies, before rd 11 upgrade most of those rd 11 players to have a balanced side for byes with the setup 8/11/11. the rd 12 and 13 rookies you have, you will upgrade according to your byes, giving you the full premium side after rd 13.

yep thats pretty much it except doesnt matter what rookies you have if your upgrading downgrading them just having the 8-11-11 structure to start round 11 is all that matters (unless you want extra donuts)

Agreed, then its just a matter of whether you go 2/4/3 in def and 2/3/4 in fwd or vice versa.
Personally, I'll be going 2/3/4 in def.

One a side note, CW you're probably sick of it, BUT, you are the king of champs and then some!!!

Colliwobblers · January 22, 2012, 02:22:22 AM

hey thanks man i not sick of anything loving the site, loving the preseason and cant wait for nab cup and the start of the season, wish i had found this site earlier great stuff and great peoples.

Presto · January 22, 2012, 02:29:10 AM

To have your side ready by round 13 is far too optimistic.

Here is a very optimistic scenario
Let's assume that your starting side is like Off Tap describe it:
14 starting premiums and 2 mid pricers. This leaves 14 roockies and low pricers.
Let's also assume that the 2 mid pricers will mature into premium status, lets also assume that one of your rookies is a Barlow type and will also mature into a premium player.
At this point you have 17 premium players. the perfect team should have 22 premiums (is the plural premia?).
So you need to trade to get the other 5 premium players
Last year only three cash cows made more than 200k (Mzungu 236k Stanley 213k and Smith 209k) and only another 15 made between 150 and 200
So for each upgrade you will need to downgrade 2 successful cash cows. To get 5 premium players you need 15 trades.

And this is without taking into consideration injuries and premium players that do not come up to our expectations

What are the chances of:
1. Starting with 14 premiums that will remain premiums
2. None of the premiums will suffer LTI
3. The two mid pricers will become keepers
4. 10 of your selected rookies will make at least 150k

Colliwobblers · January 22, 2012, 02:36:49 AM

well said presto some one said by round 11 so i didnt want to sound like i was way behind so i said 13 (end of bye rounds) but if my team is locked by 15 i'll be happy enough, but trust me the pro's will have it all locked away a few rounds before that byes or not. Whether it works this season or not is the question

But brilliantly put presto

And add to your comments the fact that to avoid donuts over the byes you will need maybe 6 trades

plus the 15 for upgrades (minimum imo)

thats 21.

plus lti and SPUD trades 3?

thats 24

Ziplock · January 22, 2012, 02:44:07 AM

is that ending price or peaking price?

cause christensen peaked at 225k+
lower broke 200k as well
savage almost hit +300k at one point
Illes + Heppell + Darling + Puopolo were close to 200k
Zac Smith made over 200k
and curnow peaked very close to 200+k before injury.

so that was actually 12 players that either broke 200k+ in cash made, or got very close.

imo curnow + Darling deserve mentions since they peaked so early for first trades :)

Presto · January 22, 2012, 03:35:22 AM

Quote from: Ziplock on January 22, 2012, 02:44:07 AM
is that ending price or peaking price?

cause christensen peaked at 225k+
lower broke 200k as well
savage almost hit +300k at one point
Illes + Heppell + Darling + Puopolo were close to 200k
Zac Smith made over 200k
and curnow peaked very close to 200+k before injury.

so that was actually 12 players that either broke 200k+ in cash made, or got very close.

imo curnow + Darling deserve mentions since they peaked so early for first trades :)

You are absolutely right. I only had the closing prices. I though about finding the peak prices, but then I thought it did not matter.
How many of the players you mentioned peaked before round 13?
Darling and Heppel yes, Curnow too provided he was traded straight away after his injury on round 7, but Lower, Savage and Puopolo achieve it much later. On the other hand 2 of the one I quoted over 200k were Smith (he played his 3rd game in round 13 and did not go over 200k until rnd 21) and Mzungu ((he played his 5th game in round 13 and did not go over 200k until much later)
Zac Smith made it over 200k on rd 14, and Christensen played his 6th game on round 14 and by then he had not gain much.
Anyway most of these players were included in the 15 I said between 150 and 200K
My point remains that you need to gain some 1.5 to 2mil from 10 of your cash cows to achieve your upgrades.