ADAM GOODES - verified upgrade target.

[Grazz]

Look at goodes first 8 games this year though
1. GWS
2. Freo
3. Port
4. North
5. Hawks
6. Crows
7. Richmond
8. Melbourne
Thats a nice run

Some info you may of not looked at yet regarding his scores against those sides in 2011.
1. GWS  unknown
2. Freo 89
3. Port 115
4. North 76
5. Hawks 87
6. Crows 81
7. Richmond 60 & 78
8. Melbourne 76

[Colliwobblers]

OMG i had not looked at any of that, but you just backed up my story anyone who has goodes from the start is going to have no hair left by round 9 when he will come good and during hte byes colliwobblers will pick him up :)

those are damning stats Grazz well done and thanks it looks like goodes may continue the pattern in 2012

[Grazz]

OMG i had not looked at any of that, but you just backed up my story anyone who has goodes from the start is going to have no hair left by round 9 when he will come good and during hte byes colliwobblers will pick him up :)

those are damning stats Grazz well done and thanks it looks like goodes may continue the pattern in 2012

I thought it may make for some interesting reading mate. Dont get me wrong im a massive Goodes fan, he was in my side last year
and gave me a very handy 133 in the GF.

[Colliwobblers]

thats at the end of the season right ?    ;D

[Grazz]

thats at the end of the season right ?    ;D

Yeh mate.

[Colliwobblers]

sorry im been a dumb arsk too many largers :)

[Windigo]

I always get Goodes later on in the season. It's just what you do.

[JoeKing]

 Sure Goodes has been a bit weaker in his starts than his finishes in the past, but take a look at his draw:

Let’s compare 2012 to 2011:

Last year, in their first 8 games, Sydney played Melbourne, Essendon, West Coast, Geelong, Carlton, Western Bulldogs, Pt Adelaide & Hawthorn.  not exactly the easiest run of games, 5 teams in the Top 6.

Let’s look to 2012. This year, their first 8 games are: GWS, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Kangaroos, Hawthorn, Adelaide, Richmond & Melbourne.  Only 1 team from last year’s Top 8! Goodes is a Lock for Round 1

[Grazz]

Sure Goodes has been a bit weaker in his starts than his finishes in the past, but take a look at his draw:

Let’s compare 2012 to 2011:

Last year, in their first 8 games, Sydney played Melbourne, Essendon, West Coast, Geelong, Carlton, Western Bulldogs, Pt Adelaide & Hawthorn.  not exactly the easiest run of games, 5 teams in the Top 6.

Let’s look to 2012. This year, their first 8 games are: GWS, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Kangaroos, Hawthorn, Adelaide, Richmond & Melbourne.  Only 1 team from last year’s Top 8! Goodes is a Lock for Round 1

Look at the post at the top of the page mate.

[Andrew]

I still think that if your mindset is one that you're definately going to get him, it's better saving the trade and starting with him. I struggle to see how his price will drop that much early, from his first 3 games he'll be averaging over 100 (assuming he ONLY scores 110 v GWS) but point noted about his record v opponents in the first 8 games last year - I just don't see this being repeated: Richmond 60 & 78, Melbourne 76. He's still as good a bet as any and is in my side currently.

[Grazz]

I still think that if your mindset is one that you're definately going to get him, it's better saving the trade and starting with him. I struggle to see how his price will drop that much early, from his first 3 games he'll be averaging over 100 (assuming he ONLY scores 110 v GWS) but point noted about his record v opponents in the first 8 games last year - I just don't see this being repeated: Richmond 60 & 78, Melbourne 76. He's still as good a bet as any and is in my side currently.

I understand your point on costing a trade and agree, for me he will probably be an upgrade target, everyone is an option for upgrades at this point, and i'll hopefully be off loading a rookie to get him when the time comes. I was suprised to by his scores in those games i posted and like you think he should do better than that but it's how ive handled Goodes most seasons so i'll follow the plan as usual but understand its different strokes for different folks.

[Andrew]

I started with him last season and it was a mid-season dip which was the only disappointment - not so much early season slowness. I just think it has become a trend that everyone has picked up on - not saying yourself who obviously has done research - but take this DTtalk graphic on Goodes for instance:



The profile goes on to make the point that this shows he starts slow and thus is a better upgrade target, and a flood of comments come in 85-90% agreeing with the strategy. But look at the scores for his first 8 games in the past 3 seasons: 88, 90, 95.

They're not actually poor scores at all..? For a season long keeper if you can guarantee that kind of scoring early (he'll do at least 88 this time around?) then he's worth taking the season-long ride on for mine, compared to trying to find a good situation to bring him in and burning a precious trade.

He's in for now but there's a possibility that Goodes or Robinson will leave my forward line if I need cash elsewhere. But taking on a mid-priced prospect like J-Brown is not appealing when I've already got N.Riewoldt & Christensen locked in.

[Grazz]

Hard to argue with you there on all the points you made, i too have started seasons with him. I understand your point on costing you a trade to get him in but at the same time you will be burning a trade to fit some other Gun into your forward line at some point unless your starting with 7 Guns in your forward which obviously you wont be so its all relative really, i burn 1 to get Goodes
a nd you burn 1 to get Buddy for example. Six of one half a dozen of another dont you think.

[Colliwobblers]

yeah look you could flip a coin on him and dont think it matters much ONLY becasue as the season goes on the magic number draws everyones price down which offsets the fact that with goodes...

1. you pay for his last years average  99
2. you only get an average of say 90 for the first 8 games = his price drops
3. you dont waste a trade because you are upgrading rooks to premiums thats what you do. but you upgrade to him at a price for a 90 everage, then for the rest of the year he averages you 110.

if you had him all along you would have paid more for him but had a solid enough (90 say) output from him you keep him and get the good half out of him as well.

It doesnt make a lot of difference the point is why not pick a player to start the season that averages more consistantly in the first half and have goodes as a rookie upgrade target mid season?

makes sense, NOT SUGGESTING  to sideways trade to him upgrade trade to him thats not a wasted trade.

[Binga]

Why are people so against starting with Goodes? Although he is particularly stronger come second half of te season. I feel the teams he verses early just offer massive scoring potential and he could be an absolute gem given that noone else wants him. Peoples thoughts?