Premium ELITE 2012

[Torress]

righto we won't know much more about rookies til NAB so lets think about prems, pretty much looking at mid prems and in particular elite.

(i'm not gonna compare rucks here but yes there are also prem elite rucks, but i think the ruck is an issue of its own in 2012)

so elite prems (ie 120+ average) (prem 100+ average)

we have swan, pendles and GAJ   thats it!

does anyone think 2012 will bring some new elite prems?? i think these 3 will remain elite, but will we see any more?

i'll throw a few out there, or the obvious ones as they have been elite in the past but have became just an ordinary prem since are : GOD, Hodge, Judd, Goodes, Bartel, Tags, NDS and i think thats it just about it. - plz correct me if i miss anyone but i'm not thinking about defenders or forwards (only really buddy, JBrown, maybe Nroo anyway)

Question - will either of these guys reclaim elite status or will the next generation present us with elite SCers???

candiates might be -

A. Swallow - if he gets captaincy and makes his bad games at minimum 90 SC (he has big games)
Rockliff - this guy would be great to start especially if he turns elite as his bye is in Rd11 compared with other popular mid prems who have byes in Rd12 or 13
Murphy - must be every chance for elite this year
Boyd - he will be a SC slut at the doggies with prem players fading around him and he will have more of the pie
Barlow/Mundy/Fyfe - one of these 3 might??
Watson - not sure if his game will allow for it but he is the main man at bomber land
Jelwood - i reckon he is favourite out of the non elite to hit elite in 2012 and will be a popular pick for sure due to his starting price.
Martin - if he starts dominating the tagger with his goal kicking ability to boot, you never know
Priddis - i don't think he will personally but does get ALOT of the ball, don't think his style could obtain a 120+ average IMO

What do ppl think?? do players who have had elite status in the past have a better chance of being elite again vs the new up and comers??

[charliesheen]

Looking at historical data, those that average 120+ generally come from top 4 teams or are named Gary Ablett.

I think JSelwood and MMurphy can get close.  If you include the final series, MMurphy was averaging 119-120 SC which is not far off...  MMurphy seems to be overlooked again in 2012 which I find quite surprising.

In 2011, Boyd looked like doing it but he seems to taper in 2nd half of the season most years, arguments for picking him early or not at all.

Rockliff is showing strong signs of becoming a fantasy stud, but there needs to be more data.

[kilbluff1985]

I'm throwing Scott Thompson in the hat with his easy draw this year.

I think Murphy is a must have this year training really well apparently better pre season then Judd, and i'm starting with Swan instead of Pendles but Pendles will be my first upgrade target after the bye

[Presto]

Although looking at averages is the most accepted way, I think that total scoring over a season is just as important: It is more valuable a GAJ that averages 127, but plays for 20 weeks with the consequence that in those 2 missing weeks you must bring on much lesser player.

Or is it just as valuable a Dal Santo that plays every week at an average of 119?

I consider both Dal Santo and Murphy as elite.

[charliesheen]

Its complicated because you need to take into account the rookie scores or bench cover.  In 2011 it was not uncommon for

1. for mature age rookies to average ~80
2. for people to have an extended premium bench (7 mids, 8 forwards, and 8 defenders).
3. take into account captaincy points.

In 2011, Swan/Pendles were probably locks, so they are excluded from this example.

In the last 14 weeks, GAblett averaged 133.  The 2nd highest average in that period was NDS who averaged 126.  2ndly, in the first first half of the season, NDS only averaged 109, so not many would have even considered him as being in the top 7....

ABLETT >  total inc sub (1573) + miss 1 game or rookie average (80) = 1653
NDS > total (1520) + bye or rookie average (80) = 1600

As you can see Ablett still comes in front.

IMO, he is an absolute lock in 2012, is under valued due to sub, and has the potential to come firing out of the gate with a good preseason.

[charliesheen]

If we are just talking about 2012.

You could probably ask is Ablett more of a lock than say Swan/Pendlebury. 

I guess it depends on how you use the remaining funds, and depends on what each average early in the season (whether they come out firing and score beyond their 2011 average).

I don't expect Ablett to get injured early in the season, and his strength of schedule is just too hard to ignore.  I also need those funds for other areas.

At the moment, my team has both Ablett & Swan.

[nichsa673]

I think Selwood will really push Murphy and NDS for that 4th top player, and that he has a good chance of avereging of 120. For some reason I just feel like Swans scoring will lower. He will still get the scores, but Ball became more prominent in the second half of the year, and Beams and Sidebottom look like they will be getting more time in the midfield. His scoring might be affected IMO.

[lozza63]

Although looking at averages is the most accepted way, I think that total scoring over a season is just as important: It is more valuable a GAJ that averages 127, but plays for 20 weeks with the consequence that in those 2 missing weeks you must bring on much lesser player.

Or is it just as valuable a Dal Santo that plays every week at an average of 119?

I consider both Dal Santo and Murphy as elite.

It depends what that "lesser" coverage player scores - if you manage to have a Mzungu/Smith/D. Swallow type who can average 80 ish then GAJ is still better. Even if Gazza misses 3 games with similar backup he is better than Dal.

Still my feeling is that if you can score 116+ and/or total SC points in the top 6 in the comp that is sufficient for elite status in the mids.
In the rucks - Cox and 2nd ruckman is way up there. I also think that top two/three defenders/forwards also worth mentioning as elite 'cause you cant have 7 top mids in the team.

Those with Elite status from last year.

Pendles, Ablett, Swan, Murphy, Dal Santo and Judd.

Pressing for that status this year A.Swallow, Selwood, Boyd, Rockliff, Priddis, S.Thompson and Mitchell (mind you i cant see too many dropping out of the "elite" this year.

Rucks:
Cox and Goldy - Sandy, Leuey and Mummy pressing.

Fwds:
Goodes and Fyfe - Buddy pressing.

Backs:
Goddard and Scotland - Deledio pressing. 

[Colliwobblers]

The only player I'd put money on becoming elite to add to your 3 is rocklife though there are about 10 others that will be above 110' but to average 120 is not common.

[dmac07]

Lots of talk about swan/pendles, but just to throw another one out there, what about thomas? Average of 109 last year if i remember correctly. He would have to be in the pushing category.

[meow meow]

Hodge could jump up into that group.

[nichsa673]

Lots of talk about swan/pendles, but just to throw another one out there, what about thomas? Average of 109 last year if i remember correctly. He would have to be in the pushing category.

I can't see Swan and Pendles scoring dropping too much, and therefore it would be very hard for 3 midfielders to average 120+ in the same team.

[essendon33]

It depends what that "lesser" coverage player scores - if you manage to have a Mzungu/Smith/D. Swallow type who can average 80 ish then GAJ is still better. Even if Gazza misses 3 games with similar backup he is better than Dal.

Still my feeling is that if you can score 116+ and/or total SC points in the top 6 in the comp that is sufficient for elite status in the mids.
In the rucks - Cox and 2nd ruckman is way up there. I also think that top two/three defenders/forwards also worth mentioning as elite 'cause you cant have 7 top mids in the team.

Those with Elite status from last year.

Pendles, Ablett, Swan, Murphy, Dal Santo and Judd.

Pressing for that status this year A.Swallow, Selwood, Boyd, Rockliff, Priddis, S.Thompson and Mitchell (mind you i cant see too many dropping out of the "elite" this year.

Rucks:
Cox and Goldy - Sandy, Leuey and Mummy pressing.

Fwds:
Goodes and Fyfe - Buddy pressing.

Backs:
Goddard and Scotland - Deledio pressing.

I agree with most of your opinion, but IMO:
- delidio is an elite back
- buddy is an elite fwd...
- how can u say that matty preddis isnt elite, he had what one game under 100 last year (think it was still above 90) as well as a few big scores, he is incredibly constant.. unlike swan who will pull out 160s and then 80 or 90..
- Also goldy as an elite... your joking

[charliesheen]

goldy is a gun

[dmac07]

Take out the 4 games swan was playing injured before his break last year and I'll think you'll find very few scores under 100.