Rhys Palmer - Smokie or Nokee

Started by Colliwobblers, January 10, 2012, 03:22:22 AM

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Colliwobblers

January 10, 2012, 03:22:22 AM
How about this guy, I've hear smokie whispers around the place and have seen predictions of him scoring well.

Listed as a straight Mid and at $323,500.

Rhys Palmer is a 22-year-old, left footed, midfielder who played his junior football at Bullcreek Leeming Football Club in Western Australia.
Rhys made his West Australian Football League (WAFL) debut for East Fremantle in 2007 and was a member of the winning West Australian side in the NAB AFL U18 National Championships in the same year.
After an impressive U18s Championship performance where he averaged 32 disposals and three goals over three matches, Rhys was named in the U18s All-Australian side in 2007.
Fremantle Football Club selected Rhys with pick number seven in the 2007 NAB AFL Draft.
Rhys made his AFL debut in Round 2, 2008 against Hawthorn at Subiaco and despite his side losing by 15 points; Rhys gained 22 possessions and one goal on debut.
He was awarded an NAB AFL Rising Star award for his performance in Fremantle’s 14-point win over West Coast in Round 3, where he racked up 24 possessions despite receiving a gash to the head in the first quarter of the match. Rhys went on to win the prestigious Rising Star award in 2008.
Rhys missed the 2009 AFL season due to a knee reconstruction and returned in Round 6, 2010.
Since his return to the AFL, Rhys has posted career highs in marks, tackles, goals, clearances and contested and uncontested possessions.
Palmer said that he was looking forward to moving to Western Sydney later this year and the facing the challenge ahead of him.
“To make this decision I spoke to a lot of close people around me including my family and my friends. I know that I have personally made the right decision for me and I’m just so happy to be a part of this.
“I have a chance to challenge myself, step forward as a leader in a very young playing group and help build a brand new AFL club.
“Naturally it’s hard to leave the club you’re with, the Dockers have been a great club to be a part of and for that I thank them, but for me it’s time to look at a new chapter.

2011 Dream Team Stats
Round    Price    Score    
1    $309,500    55    
2    $309,500    53    
3    $309,500    87    
4    $296,200    74    
5    $291,200    53    
6    $287,000    -    
7    $287,000    49    
8    $271,100    -    
9    $271,100    108    
10    $270,700    67    
11    $273,100    16    
12    $263,200    -    
13    $263,200    -    
14    $263,200    77    
15    $247,000    87    
16    $241,100    -    
17    $241,100    63    
18    $252,000    -    
19    $252,000    39    
20    $247,400    -    
21    $247,400    -    
22    $247,400    56    
23    $234,400    97    
24    $236,200    -    

Anyone interested or just another mid priced midfielder who wont reach the heights required to "remain" in our finalised midfields?

elephants

#1
January 10, 2012, 04:11:38 AM
Well for me I had him seriously considered and in and out of my team on a number of occasions.
The reason however that I have left him out is I don't believe that Palmer can push his average in and around the top 10 Mids this season. Therefore he is really just a cash cow, a stepping stone to a premium if you like. I could save over 200k by getting a rookie over him who could realistically score equal to or better than him due to the fact his team will be annihilated week in week out.

It is based on this logic that I am leaving Rhys Palmer OUT of my 2012 DT.
Good thread though, I know there are a lot of people considering him.

Ziplock

#2
January 10, 2012, 08:55:14 AM
90-100 average. Doesn't fit my structure, but will be solid enough.

Was misused and played out of position in freo last year, hence the 20-30 point drop in scoring.

Windigo

#3
January 10, 2012, 10:46:42 AM
Didn't we say that say the same thing last year?

Pass.

Lions01

#4
January 10, 2012, 12:49:23 PM
Injured during round 19 and Sub/ed in rounds 1,2 and 11, as stated he was used out of position given a couple of negative forward roles from memory and run with run throughout the year.

Will easily lift his average this year by being giving extra opportunity, one thing that worries me is that Gold Coast struggled without a tagger last year, Palmer has the best credentials for this role so if a job needs doing i think hell be their man.

Intersting prospect but for the same price you could get Andrew Gaff. For me its a no as i dont want to stack up on too many GWS players in the Center and i think they're rookie are the way to go

chatters24

#5
January 10, 2012, 05:53:52 PM
I believe he won't reach his potential this year simply because he is playing with GWS. A few of the "senior guys" at GC struggled a little more last year with getting a little more attention from the opposition so I feel that Palmer will underperform a little.

Bluke

#6
January 10, 2012, 06:31:09 PM
this guy will thrive with the extra responsibility and confidence the GWS coaching staff instills in him.

Im sure his and Pavs miss management were two contributing factors which helped the board push Harvey out and bring Lyon in.

elephants

#8
January 10, 2012, 08:12:08 PM
Quote from: AFL Babble on January 10, 2012, 08:05:15 PM
Love how tired he looks here.

http://www.gwsgiants.com.au/assets/components/phpthumb/phpThumb.php?src=/assets/files/Album%20Images/2012%20first%20training/DSC_1046.JPG&w=470&h=470&zc=1

Haha he just looks like he found out that he is ONLY A MIDFIELDER in DT this year. That or really bored at GWS training.

Holz

#9
January 10, 2012, 08:16:46 PM
after starting foley last year im moving away from the mid pricers who will average in the 90s. For me if im going mids hayes and barlow are the only players im looking at besdies rookies and super guns like ablett and swan.

Too many risks at GWS im avoiding all of their experienced players and expensive rookies and only looking at guys around 100k or below.

even though i think scully and palmer have the potential to pay of huge

Ziplock

#11
January 10, 2012, 09:16:46 PM
Quote from: elephants on January 10, 2012, 04:11:38 AM
Well for me I had him seriously considered and in and out of my team on a number of occasions.
The reason however that I have left him out is I don't believe that Palmer can push his average in and around the top 10 Mids this season. Therefore he is really just a cash cow, a stepping stone to a premium if you like. I could save over 200k by getting a rookie over him who could realistically score equal to or better than him due to the fact his team will be annihilated week in week out.

It is based on this logic that I am leaving Rhys Palmer OUT of my 2012 DT.
Good thread though, I know there are a lot of people considering him.
*yawn* poor strategy.

Lets look at another player, priced more dearly than Palmer was last year, but average 90+ this year
Trent Cotchin
2010 average- 74
2011 average- 94
Difference +20
Price 307 800
and look at a rookie, who you would be playing in his place. Midfield- Smith + Mzungu are out as they didn't play season start. Heppell would have been fielded in your backs. Curnow + Savage weren't seen as viable options pre-season, leaving david swallow.

David Swallow
2010 average- N/A
2011 Average- 76
Price: 160 500

Break it down. Average difference for the year of 18, starting price difference of $147 300
Cotchin topped out round 21 at 393 000 with an average of 95 (his previous top out was 358 000 in round 9 average 92)
Swallow topped out round 20 at 324 500 with an average of 80 (Previous top out 286 800 in round 10 with an average of 78)

the round 21 + 20 top outs can be disregarded- as non-keepers both would have been upgraded long before then.
Cotchin topped out one round earlier than swallow in upgrade season, without having had a bye (unlike swallow who had 2 by that point). The difference was $71 200 between their first top outs, although cotchin could be upgraded first.
However, cotchin was getting at that time, 14 more ppg, giving you 126 more points overall more than swallow (not counting the two byes that you would have had to play lesser rookies in swallows place- probably closer to 150 points overall), that's relatively substantial.

Then for round 10, you could have upgraded Swallow/ Cotchin to Ablett (which was what I did with cotchin)
Cotchin = -46 900
Swallow= -118 000
(this just highlights the 71 200 difference)

have you made money? no, not really, you've 'lost' 70k. But what you gained were 14 more ppg with cotchin rather than swallow, and two extra games (150 points in essence overall), and a stepping stone considerably closer to a premium (it's unlikely you would have been able to upgrade swallow to ablett at that point without using 3 trades (without trading out heppell, I dont think any rookie had topped out enough).

so, you've saved yourself a trade or so, and gained 150 extra points to overall.

Holz

#12
January 11, 2012, 05:34:36 AM
zip i do see your point however personally i see 2 issues with it realating to palmer.

1. im not sure about you but last year i was much more confident that cot chin would average 90+ than i am that palmer will this year. The problem comes is what if he only averages 80-85.

2. i think would you have argued but maybee indirectly was i dont think expensive rookies are worth it, for example if you say compared curnow to cotchin, than the analysis would strongly be in favour of the rookie ( i know he was  the best though)
i feel there is more value in the mids this year with guys like kavanagah, mitchell, shiel, clifton etc... who are all cheap but could average posibly simular to swallow.

im not sure about your gained 150 points argument as the extra money you spent on cotchin over swallow could be spent elsewhere to gain points


but overall i do agree i can see the benefit of palmer say over caddy, but to be honest i wouldnt go with either, as i said either go up to a hayes, barlow or selwood or down to a kavanagh, shiel, mitchell etc.....

Ziplock

#13
January 11, 2012, 08:50:58 AM
the beauty of palmer (and gaffs as well) cheapness is that the comparitive value they offer in even an 80+ average equivalates to cotchins 90+ (for the record, I think both of them will average high 80s to 90+ for certain).

The thing though, you can pick solid enough mid pricers who'll increase their average just a little. With some though + algorithm tweaking, worst case scenario you get a sidebottom (like a 5-10 ppg increase), but best case you get a fyfe, redden, rockliff, suckling, shiels

:)

elephants

#14
January 11, 2012, 02:25:55 PM
Your opinion Zip but spending 200k less on a rookie who can average 75 vs Palmer who can average 90 (being very generous to Palmer there) sees (going by the magic number this year) a 170k gap between Palmer and rookie.
Already you have made yourself another 30k by going rookie over Palmer.
THEN think what that 200k could have made you at the start of the season!! That is like Maric to Leuenberger. Leu is a 100+ point ruckmen. Maric is what maybe 60 at the most?

My point is money can be spent elsewhere for a 40+ ppg gain compared to Palmer who you'll have to upgrade LIKE A ROOKIE if you consider youself any chance of doing well in this game.
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