4 rookie ruck strategy

[Impromptu]

Ruckmen appear to the be main topic around across a number of well known twitter users (including myself)/fantatsy football websites right now.

Seriously can make you or break you!!

Funny thing is this decision can complete change the structure of your entire team

[Torress]

I will tell you why this will work!!!!!! 3 reasons

1.
It comes down to weather they are the starting rucks for there team... now we know Giles will be and Brogan will play 2nd fiddle, just think Smith and Fraser... this will work the same so i have no doubt there.

Next it comes down to weather Big O is starting Ruck... which is a split decision, i believe he will be!!!! but i'm sure some will say hes not.... for arguments sake lets say he is.

Both will be starting ruckman TICK!


2. lets look at the avg of starting ruckman in there respective teams and i will add the other ruckmans avg that back them up if 1st ruck is injured or what not.

Jacobs     93
Burger     102
Warnock  86
Jolly        83
Hille        85
Sandi      111
Smith      78
Ottens     98
Goldstein 113
Jamar      86
Brogan    86
Graham   76
McEvoy   101
Mumford 113
Hudson   84
Cox        112
Bailey      73

1st ruck AVG 93 (& not 1 score under 70)

now lets take out all the 100+ guns and you get a 1st ruck AVG of 84


Other Ruckman

Wood           75
Bellchambers  71
Clarke           83
Griffin           100
Fraser           74
West            76
Renouf         57
H Mac          90
Martin          86
Lobbe          75
Vickory        72
Seaby          87
Minson        83
Nic Nac       94

This groups AVG 80

out of 28 ruckman only 1 avg under 70
If you take out Renouf then no ruckman here avg under 70!!!!

With Giles and Big O size and domination in there respective leagues + mature age they will avg over 70!
remember Big O week in and week out showed up most AFL ruckman when they played 2nds so i think you could say he will avg over 70 and most likley the same as the 2nd group of ruckman above: 80 i think i am being conservative with this avg too.

Now lets be conservative again and say Giles will avg 75

Both ruckman avg over 75, TICK!!!!!


3. Everyone is worried they wont score like MID rookies....OK lets look at that in the same way using 1 dozen of the best rookies last yr

SWallow  80
Savage    76
Pups       81
Smith      80
Curnow   72
Heppal    83
Lower     82 
Mzungu   81
Stanly     78
Libba      75
Darling    70
Gaff        61

AVG: 76

THis tells me the best rookie MIDS avg less than Starting ruckman (remember we are looking at this as 1st ruckman vs MID rookies)

So on that basis the 2 starting rookie ruckman will avg at very least the same as the best MID rookies avg....but im tipping more.
Hell even the 2nd fiddle ruckman avg more than the top 11 rookies

Big O and Giles avg the same as the best MID rookies, TICK!!!!!!

Now i have worked out that the Big O and Giles as starting ruckman will give me the same as any MID rookie. granted even if its is only for 8-9 weeks

But were you win with all this is by the MID premiums you can have by doing this:

Pendles, Swan, Ablett, Selwood, Hayes in my mids witl McDonald who might lose 20ppg from his avg.... thats still a 80ppg avg.
No rookie avg over 85 last yr NONE!
and another 6 prems in my fwds and a backline thats no worse than any team posted on here.

Everyone is saying Rookie Rucks wont score like MID rookies
i think you need to look at it as will the 1st ruckman for Geelong and GWS avg the same as the MID rookies
Yes they will  ;)

Conservatively i get 155 in my rucks for 220k

Food for thought

mate dam good write up!!!  i've pretty much been going for set and forget mummy and leuy.
i could not go with 4 rookie rucks i don't care how well it can be justified. if it blows up in your face, your overall hopes will be gone and SC 2012 could be over pretty quickly.

i've been set and forget, but i think one prem with rookies could be okay. but i couldn't rely on 4 rookies.
mind you compelling argument, i got no doubt it could work but its way way way way way too risky. no need for that much risk. Hmac and 3 rookies is hypothetically the most i'd strech it!! but the rest of my team would have to be hot $hit

[charliesheen]

its worth a look, my issue is that there is not a lot of fall back options, if one of them has a freak injury or gets suspended.

If you had Sandilands (toe) or Grimes (foot), you could just sideways trade them to another premium.  If you had all rookie rucks, this can be a bit problematic.

You also need to factor in that the forwards and backs are also tend to be the most volatile when it comes to price changes.   For example, you can always buy guys like SJ very cheap at some point in the season.

3 rookie rucks or 2 rookie/mid price I am still thinking about the pro's and cons, 4 seems a bit extreme.

[Torress]

well thats it Mr Sheen, you don't get the collateral if it goes pear shaped with 4 rookie rucks.
mind you if i had a crystal ball and big O and giles average 75+ and played the first 10 games i'd probably give it a go! 

[charliesheen]

I can see at least one of them averaging 80, before tapering off in 2nd half of season.  I think a more balanced approach would be to have a place holder like West/Renouf/Kreuzer/hmac/etc. with the 2 rookies or the 3 rookies and a premium.

Also say, you go

Orren, Giles <Rowe, Witts/Jenkens>

Lets assume Rowe plays, and Witts/Jenkins does not play till the 2nd half of the season, your effectively giving away 1 rookie or cash cow spot for the first half of the season.

[Ziplock]

Redden as well.

From NAB cup form you *should* be able to pick the right ruck rooks as well. Jenkins should get games anyway- adelaide just don't have any other rucks (apart from two low rookie listed picks)

I don't see a problem with the rookie rucks. But I would be targeting that area for first upgrades tbh- you're probs going to have trouble if you're not upgraded by the first bye or so.

[charliesheen]

The issue is not if they will be given games.  Its when they will be given games and how many continuous games.

If they are not named round 1, its risky to speculate.  Otherwise, like I said your effectively giving away 1 cash cow/rookie spot for the first 10 weeks.

[Hippo]

Thanks Torress, just feel this yr is unique in the ruck department and could be worked on ones favour

yeah your right Charlie that one could go down and it would go pear shape but i guess thats a risk you take to go against the grain.

If they are not named rd 1 then i would not go with this option BUT if they are then i feel i owe it too myself now to have a go at it.

in previous yr i have always felt that r4 is a dead place holder possie that doesn't really need to be used, the mids/backs/fwds if picked right will be turned over for another and then by say rd15 the 'other' would be ready to turnover again for the 3rd rookie.
Idealy you would want the r4 to play but i dont think its the end of the world. Having said that i dont think it will be the case anyway.

im not against Set and forget but i see this as a rule that everyone puts on themselves every year - every yr the value changes and were it is, so if it is rucks this yr you are potentially blinding yourself of it with the rules you place on yourself before the season even starts

[Ziplock]

Yeah, Jenkins/ redden might get games here and there, but Rowe I can see playing *relatively* consistently, and stephensen + giles should be playing week in and out for the first bit of the season.

[Hippo]

Does Derickx now come into the equation?

kicked 5 goals in 10min in match simulation at training playing on Rance

[charliesheen]

derickx my biggest dud pick.  Even jtippet managed a few games in '11.  perfect example of picks you expect to play but don't.  refering to 4 rookie ruck strategy.

richmond specifically traded for Maric, so not really sure how Derickx fits into equation, worth a watch though.

[Ziplock]

he got injured last year (derickx). According to him he's hoping he'll slide in as a forward/ pinch hitting ruckman.

[Torress]

the ruck strategy is really dominating SC talk pre season!!!

if you do go with 4 rookie rucks, obviously you have alot of cash to spend elswhere. no point leaving over 100k in the kitty - we all know that is a waste. so by doing this you kind of bind yourself to pick the best of the best in the other positions, potentially missing some good buys - and if your R3&4 miss games, thats a spot or 2 where a cash cow could have been making some kanga.

really, one prem ruck with 3 rookies i think is the most you may want to stretch it. there are some good midpriced options that should bob up in every line, allowing for a good spread with no where near as much risk.
i don't have the balls to go with 4 ruck rooks!!!

mind you hippo, if you can somehow upgrade your rucks by first bye you could be flying!!! but you probably wouldn't have much ruck back up as you'd upgrade the rucks who have made the most $$$, as compared to hanging onto one ruck rookie that gets a gig - big O/giles untill late in the season when you might need cash rather than backup

[RHC123]

I think it's possible, and trust Stephenson and Giles to play and score at least 60-70, but Rowe, Witts and Jenkins, chances are they won't play the majority of games especially if Carlton (Rowe) have a good year with their KPP prospects. So to take the risk out 1-3 is good, as you also are able to save money for another premium elsewhere.

I mean, the choices of Goddard, Deledio, Scotland, Fisher, Shaw are a lot safer then Cox, Sandi, Goldy and Mumford, who all have question marks over them..and who knows what the answer will be...

[CuStArDaRm]

Whoever does this strategy has big big big massive cohonas! :)