Holzman s Strategy and Team

[Holz]

Alot of this stuff people will already know but it should help some people and maybee throw out some new strats or ideas.

If you haven't read the post by monty on the home page it would be a good idea but i will go through everything so if not its ok, im going to show you my team at this stage and how i plan to counter the byes, my strategy is im going to eat 2 donuts as i will explain later but i think this strategy could earn more points over the season.

This team is designed just to pick up ideas on how to structure teams, but feel free to suggest improvements to my team and other ideas, its mainly to help serious Dters the best way to play this year.  i play for overall and the strategy is designed for that but it also works for league players.

as many of you know the best strategy to go into the byes is 8  outs round 11, 11 outs round 12 and 13.

this is because if you trade a player in round 11 you will need to go to a player with a round 12 or 13 player and that doesn't help as they will obviously have a bye coming up. What you want to do is be trading a player for a guy who has had a bye e.g in round 12 trade to a round 11 player or in round 13 you can go either round 11 or 12.

I will now break down the postions

Ruck:
I was originally thinking of going a cheap ruck with Hmac and Giles but now looking over the byes i think this is a bad idea and we need Giles on the bench. It is possible to survive the byes if you go X,giles with stephenson on the bench if Stephenson plays but personally im not too confident of that so i think its safer to go 3 rucks you know will play as if not you could be facing 2 extra donuts.

Now the thing you want is to have 3 Rucks playing at each one from a different bye. As most people know giles has the round 11 bye so this means that by round 11 your other 2 rucks should be a round 12 ruck and a 13.

Round 12 rucks: Sandi, Mummy these are the 2 premiums i can see, so in my mind you will need to start one of them or upgrade to one of them before round 12.

Round 13 rucks:  Mcevoy, Kruezer, Renouf i would say these are the only viable options with mcevoy being the only premium, by round 13 i personally would want to have renouf out of my team so i would say its down to kruezer or renouf.

For me im currently starting Mummy, Hmac (Giles, Stephenson)[/b] and i will be upgrading Hmac to Mcevoy round 11 (or before) if stephenson is playing alot i will think of keeping him and if named round 11 i may keep him. If stephenson is playing i could aslo upgrade Hmac to a round 11 rusk so that guys like cox, burger and goldy

This way i have used only 1 trade for my ruck divison and its not in the round 12 or 13 round and i could possibly use not trades. To be honest Hmac to Mcevoy wasnt my optimal outcome but i feel a trade is worth more than the 50-100 points i lose from not having say cox ( the benefit is if he is good its a good trade and if he is not as good as cox he will be cheaper so i can spend money elsewhere)

I have gone against the strategy by Monty of a R/F in the Rucks and 2 in the forward as i think the forward line is where all the value is this year so its a waste and you can make up the 160ish points throught the season by not having petrie, kruezer and ryder. The R/F strategy also relies on Stephenson playing and im not convinced he will if he misses during the byes you have 3 R/F in your team for nothing


Midfield:

now for the mids, optimally you want 2 players out round 11 and 3 each for round 12 and 13.

Now i think the best line-up possible this year is 2 super premiums and 2 under priced guns with 2 rookies as i feel the mid rookies are the best so you will want 4 of them

we are quite lucky with the mids having a good spread of byes:
round 11 common  premiums: Boyd, Rockliff, Redden, Thompson, Swallow, Ziebell

now for me personally i dont really want one of these guys, If you do you cant have more than 2 of them, the reason im not starting them is because as i said in round 12 you will need to trade in one of these guys and in round 13 either a round 11 or 12. So i would not recomend starting boyd and rather use him as an upgrade target.

There are a bunch or rookies missing round 11 so i would rather load up on these rookies and get the premiums later.  All the GWS rookies are here and as i said you will need 2 left by round 11 for me im picking tyson and sheil


Round 12 common premiums Swan, Pendles, Selwood, Mundy, Barlow

I think you should start with either 2 and a round 12 rookie or 3 if you dont like a round 12 rookie. If you go 2 you will need to either have a round 12 rookie, will need to trade one in or will have to have upgraded to one of these guys before round 11.

round 12 rookies Kavangh, Mitchell

now im going to say if you go 2 premiums you will need to get one of these guys if you want both you will need to either start 1 premium or downgrade/upgrade either kavanagh or Mitchell . In my opinion if both play round 1 i may consider both but mitchell if he plays round 1 is locked he is a gun.

Round 13 Premiums Ablett, Mitchell, Murphy, Gibbs, Shiels, Montagna, Cotchin, Hayes
Round 13 Rookie Wingard

I would say round 13 is the worst for rookies, so i would say you either need 3 premiums or 2 and Wingard. As round 13 isnt the best for premiums either in my opinion i would say Wingard is a must if plays round 1.

Everyone will and should have Ablett, so you need to pick one  out of the rest for me its Hayes will be good value and i will explain later why he is a good pick.


Som my mid going into the year is Swan(12), Ablett (13), Hayes (13), Barlow(12), Tyson (11), Wingard (13) (Mitchell(12), Sheil (11)

This way im not forced to make a trade before the byes if i dont want to but as i said if i did want to upgrade or downgrade i would need to keep the 2/3/3 structure the good thing is i predict shiel/tyson will be the first guys to upgrade and because i didnt pick any round 11 premiums i can go tyson to say a boyd or rockliff.

Lets assume for simplicity this was my team at round 11 i will now go through my trading strategy.

MIDFIELD TRADING STRATEGY Ok round 11 no trade needed.

Round 12: As i said its now time to trade a round 12 player for a round 11, the good thing with my structure is as i picked no round 11 premiums i have the option of anyone. So for example if i had the cash i would go a Mitchell to say Rockliff.

If there are any downgrade targets i could downgrade mitchell to get cash there should be a few as GWS could introduce a few. Assuming there are no downgrade options or you need the cash elsewhere, this is when the premiums but not super premiums kick in. I fell its wasted to do a sideways trade so if you  can do a small upgrade thats better. Ok i have barlow in my team and some would say he is a super premium, lets say however he is averaging 100 and i dont have enough money to go Mitchell to Boyd instead i can go Barlow to Boyd, i dont get a donut and its a small upgrade.

Im predicting barlow will be not worth the upgrade so i will be looking to upgrade mitchell.

Round 13: Much like round 12 another trade is needed and you need to upgrade/downgrade a round 13 mid to a round 12 or 11.

Again its time to get rid of wingard, ablett or hayes. Obviously not ablett, so again 2 options upgrade/downgrade wingard or you could upgrade Hayes to say a Pendles, Selwood, Rockliff in my opinion all could give you 10+ average increases.

Remember you will need to be upgrading in the backs and forwards so you might be short of cash, but the 50k more could be affordable and even if you keep hayes and barlow you should have a good mid.

Lets say you upgrade both your rookies by round 14 you could have

Ablett, Swan, Pendles, Selwood, Barlow, Hayes that looks pretty solid to me.

[Holz]

Reserved for Forward and Backline

that first post took a long time i might finsih it tonight, if knowone is interested in reading it just comment on my team, but the post tells why i made my picks and tells you possible lineups you might want to conisder. Its no longer the best player anymore. Its worth sacrificing some points each game in order to not loose alot.

example my upgrade to mcevoy i can afford to loose about 10 points a game over a cox and still be up

[Holz]

Goddard, Shaw, Deledio, Hartlett, Broughton, Grimes, Reid (Sierakowski, Yeo)
Swan, Ablett, Hayes, Barlow, Tyson, Wingard ( Mitchell, Shiel)
Mumford, Mcintosh (Giles, Stephenson)
Franklin, Beams, Fyfe, Robinson, Sidebottom, Christenson, Brown ( Walsh, Saad)

note team subject to change when i right the back and forward rightup but my mids and ruck is locked at the moment.

[Ziplock]

yeah it seems like a pretty solid strategy. Personally, my current line up is 8/13/9

but 3 of those from round 12 are rookies who I'm expecting to have offloaded pre-round 12 anyway, so no huge big deal.

I haven't thought hugely into my trading strategy yet. originally my line up was 8/12/10... but I had the cash to go kreuzer to sandilands, so I really couldn't pass that up :P

[Holz]

yeah it seems like a pretty solid strategy. Personally, my current line up is 8/13/9

but 3 of those from round 12 are rookies who I'm expecting to have offloaded pre-round 12 anyway, so no huge big deal.

I haven't thought hugely into my trading strategy yet. originally my line up was 8/12/10... but I had the cash to go kreuzer to sandilands, so I really couldn't pass that up :P

kruez and sandi is a good combo, should be no donuts in the ruck.

i think i pretty much have Sandi/Mummy and Hmac locked. IF stephenson does play i bring in cox/burger if not im happy settling for mcevoy.

[Ziplock]

just can't afford kreuz and sandi :P

[Windigo]

I still haven't even bothered to make a team and haven't even thought about strategies for next season yet.  ::)

But I still dunno about Kreuzer as a solid ruck option. I'll check him out during NAB.

[Holz]

I still haven't even bothered to make a team and haven't even thought about strategies for next season yet.  ::)

But I still dunno about Kreuzer as a solid ruck option. I'll check him out during NAB.

thats understandable, i know most of the fan planner teams are for fun but when people seriously look at making teams you will need to look at structure if your going for overall.

[dubizzy]

how much cash do you have left from your starting line up

[Holz]

how much cash do you have left from your starting line up

not muc but know i plan on getting rid of christensen and upgrading hartlett to gibbs


word is that martin may become a DPP if thats the case out goes hartlett and in comes martin.

Most of my forward line arent even forwards.

[dubizzy]

yeah martin being DPP will make many many people happy, including myself

[Windigo]

D-Mart mpp?

Might as well make all mids mpp if they kick a few goals.......But I wouldn't complain.  ;)

[j959]

yeah martin being DPP will make many many people happy, including myself

VS/Champion Data heard my Dusty man-crush prayers for DPP for him!  ;)

but seriously, awse.

Great discussion Holz, thanks for sharing ...

[Holz]

yeah martin being DPP will make many many people happy, including myself

VS/Champion Data heard my Dusty man-crush prayers for DPP for him!  ;)

but seriously, awse.

Great discussion Holz, thanks for sharing ...

thanks, i will have the forward line and back up shortly will need to change it abit for the price changes and DPP will wait till they are fully releeased