RISKS 2012

[truBLUE]

As we all know in DT we need to take some risks , I'm currently consindering players such as Hayes ,n roo, Porplyzia,Bower ect, Would love some feedback and advice as i'm trying to get value for money ,cheers   :-\

[TheMailman]

L. Hayes would be the least risky assuming he gets at least 20% off his price.
Porplyzia looks too cheap to not have a go (similar to adcock)
No freaking idea what Riewoldt could pull out coming season.
Similar with Bower. Note he was a 50/50 chance to get delisted at one point

I'm pretty cautious with risks unless everybodies doing it. You will be competing against other people and if you take a uniquie risk and it bursts in your face you're a goner  ;)

[Ziplock]

hey, DT is a game of risks- there's no fun in playing it safe, and there's no value in it. The strength of dreamteam is it's ability to sweat as you wait to see if higgins is a late withdrawal, if this week shaw is going to pull out the big one you need, the shakes you get as you watch your rookies taper off at 40 points, or the foaming at the mouth when your captain only scores 20 points in the second half to finish on 100.

The risks are what make DT fun :P

so like, to highlight the vague risks in the afore named players

Hayes- is (33?), and is coming off an acl injury, playing in a sliding team. All spells sorrow. But, at the same time, hayes has been a consistent performer and premium DTer for years, and he'll be seriously underpriced. IMO, the benefit outweights the risk.

N. Riewoldt- two years of underperforming is worrying, and I've heard people say it's just indicative of a slide. 2010, voldt was injury affected, while 2011 St Kilda's poor form, and his off the field dramas would have effect his game play. You hear the zone has killed his game. Maybe... but, if he can get back into form, or the Saints can pick up a player like Fev to play up with him, maybe Roo will kill the zone ;) It's pretty 50/50 on this. Personally, I'm willing to take the punt, but I can understand why people wouldn't.

Porps- Honestly, for a player that is almost certain to average around 70, maybe even pushing 80 with adelaides easy draw, and at a close to bottom rookie price, even with his shoulder injury concerns, you'd have to be pretty obstinate not to lock and load atm.

Bower- I don't know a lot about him. He's getting a hefty discount, but a big reason for this is that he isn't really in Carltons best 21, which is what you need from a player. No point picking him up if he doesn't get games.

I hope that helped a bit. Fire any others at me, and I'll do what I can :P

[truBLUE]

cheers MailMan / Ziplock  appreciate help,and advice ,previous years have finished bottom of my DT leagues want to up the ante for 2012 ,great feedback  thnx  :)

[bowyanger]

As each season passes, my overall is getting lower, so Im learning more & more.
Its hard to be strict, but Im really going to try to stay away from players that are returning from serious injury or are injury prone...Ive been burnt too many times....trades are paramount...as someone stated on another thread..."how you trade determines how well you go"
To give myself the best possible opportunity to play well, I would rather take a risk on a player who may have a breakout year, ....be it mid priced, a rookie or a unique premium (JPK for example)...better than having to burn a trade on a player who more than likely will make things painful by not having a 3 year block of full training because of serious or constant injury previously.
A player that has not had a bad injury for 3 years is always going to be a better "risk" than one that has. (They have to be a similar type of player of course)
There are many examples of a "for" & "against" to this strategy such as NROO (bad) & JGIBSON (not bad) from season 2011.
Well thats my opinion anyways...

[TheMailman]

I really think its crucial not to class players coming back from injury as one whole category

Each player needs to be considered seperately.

That being said, players coming back from injuries will generally have some difficulty when recovering

Plus there's the whole coach/ sub rule etc. and other factors you need to count in

[bowyanger]

That being said, players coming back from injuries will generally have some difficulty when recovering

Because theyre not as fit as everyone else that hasnt been injured, the small % in fitness at such an elite level now has a dramatic effect on out running your opponent to the next contest, as longer as the game goes on, as longer as the season goes on = PPG

[TheMailman]

Yes your staement is correct

That's why smart coaches/medical staff don't play them until they've at least attempted to regain that fitness.
I was also going for the point that an injury can be easily aggrevated. That's the main reason I'm cautious around injured players

[bowyanger]

That's why smart coaches/medical staff don't play them until they've at least attempted to regain that fitness.

Thats why I dont think Malthouse is as great a coach, or as smart as everyone reckons, playing injured players like Reid in a GF did wonders for them.....NOT
A lot of players do get rushed back however without regaining the required level of fitness IMO, especially the superstars that people generally have in their fantasy teams.
Judd, Pav, Cox, 211, Coons, Swan, Watson & Hodge....to name a few, play injured often.

[TheMailman]

Wait were you agreeing or disagreeing  ???

Malthouse didn't make a smart decsion therefore not a smart coach?

You basically agreed and disagreed with my statement

[bowyanger]

Yeah sorry bud...I did disagree & agree, I tried to fix it a bit better

[Dudge]

I think the risks , is what makes this game so good.Injury, old-age,shocking last season, zones, new coach, etc , etc.  A lot of it is gut feeling. By that i mean, to win the car, u can't do what everyone else are doing. I have no doubt ,a bad risk can ruin ur season but a good risk, can also win u a car. I ,think ur gut knows u better than most, so my way of thinking, is go with it. How many times have u said to yourself, i knew i should have done so and so. I also realise the times u've gone the safe way, and thought thank g-d i did that. I suppose it's up to the individual, but thats my 2 cents worth.

[Grazz]

You gotta risk it to get the biscuit.

[PowerBug]

hey, DT is a game of risks- there's no fun in playing it safe, and there's no value in it.

That right, and there's no way i'm playing it safe. Going all out.

My risks atm:
Nathan van Berlo
Trent Cotchin
Dustin Martin
Ton Scully
David Zaharakis
Paddy Dangerfield
Bachar Houli
Jared Petrenko
Nathan Vardy
Porps

There you go. Will they all pay off?? Probably not. But if they do, then i have the car all but wrapped up :)

[Grazz]

Some good names there PB, not all are a risk i like a few of those so i gotta say that,to keep my confidence up haha.