Ringo's 2012 Team FF Updated - Please Read and comment

[Ringo]

Trying to decide my final structure so am posting 2 teams here with differing Ruck Structures.
Please comment on both and which Team you consider the better for SC.

TEAM 1: Mid Price Ruck and 3 rookies
DEF: B. Goddard, B. Deledio, S. Thompson, (Roos) P. Hanley, N. Grima, N. Suban, P. Bower (B. Ellis, B. Smedts)
MID: G. Ablett jnr, M. Murphy, J. Selwood, S. Thompson, (Adel) M. Barlow, J. McDonald (L. Brown, S. Clifton )
RUC: T. West, J. Giles (S. Rowe, O. Stephenson)
FWD: S. Johnson, M. Pavlich, D. Martin, J. Brown, J. Porplyzia, A. Saad, D. Pfeiffer (T. Walsh, D. Zorko)
CASH LEFT: $14,300

TEAM 2: Prem Ruck 3 Rookies
DEF: B. Goddard, B. Deledio, H. Shaw, B. Houli, B. Lake, B. Ellis, T. Mohr (S. Morris, B. Smedts)
MID: G. Ablett jnr, M. Murphy, J. Selwood, D. Rich, M. Barlow, S. Clifton (L. Brown, J. McDonald)
RUC: M. Leuenberger, J. Giles (O. Stephenson, S. Rowe)
FWD: S. Johnson, M. Pavlich, D. Martin, J. Brown, T. Varcoe, A. Saad, A. Treloar (T. Walsh, D. Zorko)
CASH LEFT: $24,300

Leaning towards the structure of Team 1 at the Moment. Have in mind Further prems I require with upgrades eg franklin in forwards when his price bottoms out as imo his price will fall in the initial rounds with Hawks tough draw. Goodes in second half of season. 

[SAMCRO]

Don't really know much about rookies so I'll just leave them.

Team 1
Def - Thompson, Hanley, can these guys improve scoring enough to be a definite keeper? Will Grima get back to his 2010 form? How will Suban be used with a new coach?
Mid - I like it.
Ruck - West could make or break you here.
Fwd - Good.

Team 2
Def - 4 Tigers and Goddard with the round 13 bye. Houli looks to be a good pick though.
Mid - Nice. Rich and Barlow should get back to their best form.
Ruck - I'm a fan of the 1-3 ruck structure so can't fault this.
Fwd - Good.

IMO, Team 2, less unique picks but just looks to be a team that could score more consistently. Team 1 to me has too many players that could either be a great pick or a dud.

[DCAK]

Hey Ringo, before I comment on either of your teams I wonder if yopu can tell me what exactly your objective is? ie League win, weekly high scores, overall win? Don't you think that by going in so light on in the ruck department that you'll bleed points to an opponent with a more heavy duty ruck combo? It may well be that difference that costs you a win or two early on. I am assuming that your intent is to achieve maximum financial return through selling off 3 or even 4 ruckmen during the season and upgrading. Last year I picked my team along the lines of the G & R theory.  My idea being to utilise three premium MID's and three rookie MID's, in the belief that the midfield is where a younger body is most likely able to be utilised to best result (as opposed to DEF/FWD). Although I picked good rookies, it wasn't enough and I lost, in fact I lost the first few rounds. My league is quite a competitive league so as it turns out I took too much of a risk. Remember a loss or two early on may be what keeps you from the finals in a quality league. There endeth the sermon.

[Ringo]

Basically this year I am setting myself 2 Goals this year - Win Leagues which I am yet to do even after 3 years although have made grand finals and lift overall rating to the top 2%.  Just trying to decide on which Ruck structure will help me achieve goals.
Had a Team constructed with Berger and Sandilands in Ruck but found that by using theses different strategies you can increase prems in other lines. If all prems and risks fire as I see it from Team 2 only need to add additional 6 prems 12 trades maximum. (have an upgrade prem target list eg  Franklin, Pendles)  Leaves me a further 12 trades to use for  injuries removal of non performing etc.
It was the trades issues that started investigations into this strategy.  However all best plans can fall apart as we know. Thank you and Samcro for comments.

[PICCOLLO]

I'd think about having a premium ruck and rookies.  Reasoning there would be that one of the three will likely shine like Zac Smith but which one?  By having four rookies, one may go well but 2/4 getting big scores is unlikely.  Then your rucks are churning out 180+ each week.  Consider also avoiding the 8/11/11 by selecting 2 weeks of the three and having a bench etc so you definitely win those and just have a loss in the third game. (as you are going for league and not overall points)

[charliesheen]

I would probably lean to the 2nd one.

But.  I think you are falling into the trap of too many 50/50 picks (like Grima, Hanley, Varcoe, Suban, etc), because you keep changing your team quite a bit.  This suggests to me you don't have confidence in the pick.

Unless you have seen something in the preseason that has caught your eye, don't risk it.  OTherwise go proven premium:rookie.

[Ringo]

Thanks CS - Just put out for comment on the different strategies for Rucks - Also have put a few other unique teams out there radically different to stimulate comment. You will notice that in all teams there is basically a core of 12 prems.
With the abundance of possible rookie rucks this year am tossing up whether I can get a better premium Team with one Prem Ruck and three rookies which is basically what I am contemplating,  Do not see me going down the 4 rookie Ruck Strategy
With the one prem Ruck strategy and in Team 2 think I have 15/16 keepers 
This being the case barring injuries only need upgrades for trades and I have targets in mind. Went Varcoe over Porplyza but will be watching both pre season. So may need maximum of 14 trades for my upgrades leaving 10 trades for LTI's loss of form by prems etc.
Did some analysis and asked will Barlow or Rich score more than second prem Ruck as this is where I created the extra prem.

I Think Team 2 will be the base strategy I will end up going with.

[Colliwobblers]

Wow ringo, 2 well constructed and brave teams, counting a lot on your ruck rooks performing and scoring enough not to lose you league games either team. I like team 1 the best greatndepth and if allnyour mid priced players pay off you will be miles ahead of the field if they don't who knows. But for me team 1 and I like it a lot

[charliesheen]

SJ has an interrupted preseason, just so you know.

I would actually go Newman instead of Houli.  But if you see something in Houli maybe worth the risk.

Also you need to take into account, if there are enough back up options in Varcoes price range, if he turns out to be a dudd.

What are your expectations on Rich & Barlow's averages?  The problem with these picks if they don't explode straight from rounds 1-13 you are in big trouble.

For example... let me say you expect barlow to average 110.

If he averages 95 in first 10 weeks, but then explodes in 2nd half, you could potentially lose out, as the POD disappears as the longer the season draws out and teams fullly upgrade.

Diddn't explain that too well, but hope it kindof makes sense.

[Ringo]

Explained well CS
I will be watching both Barlow and Rich pre season.  My thoughts on Rich are that he will benefit from the extra attention now going to be given to Rocky and may enjoy the extra freedom. Risk but may pay off but otherwise upgrade. Rich and Barlow are M5/m6 in my final team rankings. Upgrade Target is Pendles.
With Varcoe I have a couple of options up my sleeve either downgrading to another performing rook if he is not or another Player.  One keeping an eye on is Fasolo who bucks has been talking up.

[charliesheen]

Your team probably needs Dylan Shiels, and put Luke Brown at the back.  You can always enable DPP later, because they added that new trading option where you can go

Dylan Shiels > Chris Newman, and swap Newman and Brown's position

My expectations are

D.Rich - 105 SC (including no 1 tag)
M.Barlow - 105 SC (including no 1 tag)

This would not put them under keeper status, so you will probably need to upgrade them at some stage. 
Assuming you use the remaining funds correctly, I think this is enough to break even based on the magic number and cost:performance ratio.  If they average below that in the first half of the season, you could potentially lose ground.

Conversely, if they become keepers (say top 10 mids), the ground could be made up from the slow start, because you save a trade upgrading.

Think Rockliff :D  Beast of a man.  Slow start, then proceeds to average 120 SC for the remaining of the season, which was on par with all the top 5 mids.

[Ringo]

Just about to head of overseas so thought I would post my team for comments.  Pretty close to the final prem list barring injuries.  Rookies will be finalised after the NAB Cup.

DEF: B. Goddard, B. Deledio, H. Shaw, J. Adcock, B. Lake, T. Mohr, S. Morris (B. Smedts, B. Wilkes)
MID: G. Ablett jnr, A. Swallow, J. Selwood, M. Barlow, S. Clifton, D. Shiel (L. Brown, D. Zorko)
RUC: A. Sandilands, M. Leuenberger (J. Redden, O. Stephenson)
FWD: M. Pavlich, D. Martin, L. Adams, S. Sidebottom, J. Brown, A. Treloar, H. Crozier (M. Panos, T. Couch)
CASH LEFT: $4,900

Upgrade targets I will be looking at depending on form:
Backs: Fisher, Heppell, Broughton, Suckling
Mids: Pendles; Rockliffe; Murphy/Judd/Gibbs; Mundy?
Rucks: No upgrade unless form or injury dictates. Would have liked Mumford over Sandi but a question of dollars.
Forwards: Franklin,Fyfe; Goodes; Johnson; Beams,

Picked a couple of Unique in Adams who I think will have a great year as will Andrew Swallow. Sidebottom still a question mark.

Please feel free to comment further but am reasonably confident with this team. Will worry about bye fixtures as I trade as this is 13/10/7 structure.

[Sabretooth Tigers]

 ;) ;)

Nice team Ringo and it obviously has the ability to score well untouched, and early, which is pivotal in getting anywhere this season.If you're right about Adams ( hope so ) and Swallow, Lake and Sidey you could end up with 13 to 15 keepers and that would be a monumental start. Don't like Adcock, which probably means he'll win the Brownlow. I could be wrong here
but it appears that this years midfield rookies  have more talent and scoring ability than other positions so how would you look upon 3 prems and 5 rookies there ? Hard to tell without seeing them play and guess it's only speculation at this stage. I don't see Lake as a risk coz you won't take him til he shows something. The 13/10/7  isn't far from what you want and upgrades and trades will address that. Mine is 14/10/6 at the moment but will try and do mine different from most and work it ( if I can ) to take the doughnuts during round 11 when GWS has the bye and nobody has the opportunity to pump them. Like your team and all the best for overseas. Won't presume to rate it I'm too new to the site. Cheers.

[jamesalex]

Really liking the new updated team Ringo,

Defence: Solid, but i'm not sold on Adcock. Him and Lake could be a bit risky, but you know a lot about Brisbane so you probably have a good reason for his choice.
Midfield: Flawless, and same structure as my team!
Rucks: Flawless again, I don't know why more people aren't going 2 guns/2 rookies in the ruck, the choice  of rucks are just as good as any other year.
Forwards: Very unique, and great choice in Adams. The POD in your team.

[charliesheen]

I find it interesting, that most of your intended def upgrade targets are actually under priced (assuming you consider them top 10 material).

Structure wise your mid field looks mostly nailed, but the backs/forwards will probably be dependent on how the rookies perform in the NAB and who is named for round 1.

Any reason you have avoided Giles?