Underperforming premiums that will 'bounce back' in 2012

charliesheen · October 21, 2011, 03:30:57 PM

Who are on your short lists for pulling off the Leon Davis of 2011?

I am a bit hesitant about all Saints players & A. Didak.

Cruiseon · October 21, 2011, 03:52:06 PM

For mine here a few I would keep an eye on:

- Goddard & Hodge are absolute premiums who were not at their best last year & have upside.
- N Riewoldt had a shocker but I don't think will bounce back.
- Jobe Watson is definitely a strong consideration.
- Brian Lake, who knows, but imagine if he came back to even 85% of his best.
- Lenny, never discount Lenny!
- The entire Adelaide football club.

charliesheen · October 21, 2011, 04:14:07 PM

Out of all the fallen premiums, I like J. Brown the best out of the lot. Jack Riewoldt is another interesting prospect, who was playing most of the year injured and still averaged 85.

Didak, I just don't know where he fits into things. If he gets back to averaging 100, someone else from the Pies will surely take a hit. Given, Beams, Sidebottom, Thomas, etc still have some improvement, I don't know if there is going to be enough points to go around. Then there is the Fasolo factor.

It will be interesting if Goddard does not get Back Classification. If he is listed as a back, he is a certain lock for mine, but if not I would be very hesitant to pick him.

In terms of Saints, Nick Riewoldt, Montagna, Gilbert, etc, is a bit ughhhh for me. LOL.

I think Watson has potential but fits into one of those awkward price ranges. I think I would prefer D.Mundy at that price range who averaged close to 125 before he did his leg, and is in a much stronger team.

Another interesting pick is Winderlich. Not quite a fallen premium, but will be given a very appealing discount, so role & preseason will need to be monitored.

Ultimately, it is going to be a balancing act of getting the right amount of premiums, the right amount of fallen premiums, and nailing the rookies & mature age recruits. If your extremely lucky, you will also nail 'unproven' mid-pricers like Fyfe, who don't quite fit into any of the above categories.

If you look at 2011 and previous years, there is really only a handful of fallen premiums that are going to be able to bounce back (Leon Davis, Adcock, Petrie, etc).

You just happen to remember the ones that succeed, and forgot about the dozen other failures!

4820 · October 21, 2011, 05:10:29 PM

That's a fairly accurate summary Charliesheen !

C-Dogg · October 21, 2011, 06:40:56 PM

j.watson will be very tempting

t.boak will bounce back to a premium (some might argue he never was one yet )

n.foley, hmmmm interesting one

a.cooney, gia, could be great value (lake also)

heath FOR shaw?? i think so

and for last my favourite one KIEREN JACK!!!!!!!!!!!

Ringo · October 21, 2011, 06:47:15 PM

Agree with you CS on your Mundy observations but will Barlow take some of his points. Am tossing up which way to go with these two as Barlow looked good after his comeback.
But a couple of others to look at:
Daniel Rich - He may not be as tagged severely after Rockcliffs stellar year. And J Brown definitely a lock.

With Mitch Clark going to Melbourne how about Brad Green and to a lesser extent Sylvia.

And finally dare I bring the name up Missie Higgins what to do with him quite a few have been burnt over the last 2 years but if he stays injury free has potential.

Kieran Jack another coming back from injury may also be worth a look

charliesheen · October 21, 2011, 07:39:19 PM

Can't see Barlow impacting Mundy's scoring ability, because Barlow back just means Pavlich returns to the forward line. If anything, I actually think Barlow would help Mundy, as teams incorrectly perceive him as more damaging. I think a lot will be predicated by how many games Freo notch up. Personally I really rate this Freo side, but that's just me.

I also think Rockliff is going to be a huge beneficiary if D. Rich makes strides in 2012. Teams are going to continue to tag D. Rich in 2012, and I can't see it changing. I remember when they interviewed someone from the WCE, and they asked what they thought about Rockliff's game. They didn't even know who Rockliff was!!

Mitch Clark is an interesting one, and I agree someone is going to profit from it. Is it Sylvia, Brad Green, or could it be a smokie like Jack Watts?

So I guess you could make some decision based on a dependencies standpoint and how they impact each other.

Like I said, there's only really a handful of mid pricers that turn out to be successes, so keep that in mind.

The thing with mid pricers, is that if they don't fire until mid-season, you lose the POD as teams are fully upgraded. There are quite a number examples of this. Picking the ones that come out firing is not exactly easy (think Adcock), so you need to be careful you don't over do it.

Ziplock · October 22, 2011, 04:52:34 AM

If your midpricers don't come out firing you can always burn a trade on them :P

charliesheen · October 22, 2011, 09:36:42 AM

Quote from: Ziplock on October 22, 2011, 04:52:34 AM
If your midpricers don't come out firing you can always burn a trade on them :P

Trading the failed pick is not the issue, the issues comes when you leave the trade too late... Timing and trading is easier said then done.

This is also under the assumption, you have nailed the rest of your team, and you are not occupied making corrections else where.

Ziplock · October 22, 2011, 11:00:22 AM

of course, I always assume I've nailed my team :P

Yeah, it can be really hard to time trades. My trading of broughts to adcock (in DT) was an absolute shocking timing- I got a couple of good weeks from adcock, and then he screwed up, and I had broughts go on his tonning spree (facepalm)

Master Q · October 22, 2011, 12:23:30 PM

Quote from: Cruiseon on October 21, 2011, 03:52:06 PM
For mine here a few I would keep an eye on:

- Goddard & Hodge are absolute premiums who were not at their best last year & have upside.
- N Riewoldt had a shocker but I don't think will bounce back.
- Jobe Watson is definitely a strong consideration.
- Brian Lake, who knows, but imagine if he came back to even 85% of his best.
- Lenny, never discount Lenny!
- The entire Adelaide football club.

Agree with all of them, maybe not the last one though.

Football Factory · October 24, 2011, 08:39:01 PM

J.Brown.... if his face holds together :o

truBLUE · October 25, 2011, 12:49:22 PM

Quote from: charliesheen on October 21, 2011, 04:14:07 PM
Out of all the fallen premiums, I like J. Brown the best out of the lot. Jack Riewoldt is another interesting prospect, who was playing most of the year injured and still averaged 85.

Didak, I just don't know where he fits into things. If he gets back to averaging 100, someone else from the Pies will surely take a hit. Given, Beams, Sidebottom, Thomas, etc still have some improvement, I don't know if there is going to be enough points to go around. Then there is the Fasolo factor.

It will be interesting if Goddard does not get Back Classification. If he is listed as a back, he is a certain lock for mine, but if not I would be very hesitant to pick him.

In terms of Saints, Nick Riewoldt, Montagna, Gilbert, etc, is a bit ughhhh for me. LOL.

I think Watson has potential but fits into one of those awkward price ranges. I think I would prefer D.Mundy at that price range who averaged close to 125 before he did his leg, and is in a much stronger team.

Another interesting pick is Winderlich. Not quite a fallen premium, but will be given a very appealing discount, so role & preseason will need to be monitored.

Ultimately, it is going to be a balancing act of getting the right amount of premiums, the right amount of fallen premiums, and nailing the rookies & mature age recruits. If your extremely lucky, you will also nail 'unproven' mid-pricers like Fyfe, who don't quite fit into any of the above categories.

If you look at 2011 and previous years, there is really only a handful of fallen premiums that are going to be able to bounce back (Leon Davis, Adcock, Petrie, etc).

You just happen to remember the ones that succeed, and forgot about the dozen other failures!

nicely put cs, i agree with your points on didak had him in my team 2010 was scoring great not sure where he stands with so many quality players at collingwood ,but he is a quality player and has the ability to score big and play well but can he do it consistently 2012

Holz · October 25, 2011, 03:02:25 PM

Jroo and Brown are very likely for my team, i feel richmond will step it up a year and a fully fit jroo will be able to pull some monster scores against some of the weaker teams. Brown has always been a champ so you just need to worry about his injuries and Brisbane list is reasonable so once again they should improve.

I feel Freo had a very down year and i rate them as a top 4 team, from that i think Sandi, Mundy and Barlow should lift their scores as they were all injury effected (even though Mundy really didn't have a down season, just the one game he scored 6) With that PAV had an ok season but was down abit i think he will play forward next year and lift again.

Im thinking of starting Mundy, Barlow, Pav, Sandi and maybee Broughton.

newfreofan · October 26, 2011, 09:02:40 PM

I too am planning on loading up on Freo, but I think the good old sandi/cox lock has run its course. Quite a few up and coming ruckmen to choose from. Not touching Brown personally, I think he's set to decline a bit. Will pick up Lake if he's as cheap as fan planner says. HMac will be another I'm likely going to pick if he's cheap enough. One thing I know I won't be doing is picking premiums from teams playing GWS in the grand final round, don't feel like watching my prems get rested in my grand final again like the Hawks this year :P