Just a reason...

[masterjudd]

Ok.. now here's an interesting point of view..

Chris Judd's avg at Etihad this season: 95.66- 9 matches
                 avg at MCG this season: 140.13- 8 matches

This week he has St kilda i know, BUT, how can you argue with these figures? and WHY the HUGE difference?!

I have it down to his ability to run his taggers ragged at the much bigger MCG and therefore more area to work with.

My choice of captain in the GF for sure.

[charliesheen]

For the GF, I think there will be a lot of good options this week.  Judd/Swan/Pendlebury/GAJ/Boyd/Goodes all make strong cases given their current form.  If you take out the block buster games (which many prefer to dodge), this will eliminate at least 3 of the options.

There is no doubt, that the blues prefer to play at the MCG.

However, if you take out the blow out games, Melbourne x 2, Bombers (missing hocking/welsh/watson...), Richmond, the stats become slightly inflated and skewed. 

Its also really hard to say how the points are going to be distributed for these block buster matches.

Note, he has a highest score of 123 against the Saints in his entire career, so basically your expecting him to beat his previous best by quite a big margin.

Also, the highest mid field scores against the Saints are, M.Boyd 164, D.Swan 156, S.Pendlebury 149, then it really drops off, and scores from opposition defenders rather than midfielders tend to dominate (think harry taylor, deledio, guerra, newman, duffield, shaw, bock, davis, a LONG list of defenders.....).

Right now I'm leaning towards Boyd in a huge blow out at ES OR Adam Goodes who has shifted into the midfield and should dominate Brisbane Lions.   Adam Goodes probably has the most to play for out of all these Captaincy Options I would think.

With Goodes and Boyd there is already sample data, as both have player their opposition in earlier rounds.

-- Boyd 162 in Round 4 2011, against a much much stronger Freo side.   Averages ~130 at ES in 2011.
-- Goodes 144 in Round 11 2011, against BL.

[CFC 1979]

nice write up guys

food for thought ;)