How many trades to burn??

[Benloz]

I finished 4th in my league, and need to win this week against number 1 to skip next week (in which I will have Bartel and Joelwood on the bench with the cats bye). Ive still got Shaw in the backs who I need to swap for someone. My Mids are set. Ive got Cox and Smith (who is starting to wilt and may even be rested this week) in the rucks, with no backup. Cant play petrie in the ruck as he has the bye, as does boomer harvey. My forwards are weak this week which will include mzungu, I.Smith and Duncan (who all incidently all scored 100+ last week). This week I will be fielding:

Gibbs Goddard Fisher Deledio Broughton Heppell Lower (Shaw, McKernan, Buckley)
Swan Pendlebury Ablett Selwood Bartel S.Thommo (Cotchin, Boomer, Hibberd)
Cox Smith (Petrie, McCauley)
Fyfe Goodes Buddy Darling Duncan Mzungu I.Smith (Dawes, Tapscott, Tippett)

My options are:
- Ive got a team of starters, so be weak (or smart) and hold my 2 trades for later
- trade Shaw to boost my backs as a single trade ie. Suckling, Adcock (which isnt imperative as my backs are semi-okay)
- trade out Petrie OR Boomer OR Dawes for a decent Ruck/FWD to win this week
- go for the absolute jugular to win this week and trade Shaw and a FWD or RUCKMAN for guns who will play this week (considering Adcock, Suckling, Okeefe, Cloke, Pav, NicNat, Jacobs, McEvoy, Mumford).

[Ringo]

Think you need the conservative approach as if need be you can go for the jugular next week if you do not win this week.  I  have only 2 trades and am not trading hoping to hold on as long as possible before using.