LaHug's Captains - Round 20

[LaHug]

In lieu of the weather in Adelaide, I have moved Selwood to a sole number 1 option and Swanny down to 3. I have also edited predictions of Collingwood players due to weather. Please let me know if you want me to check someone out for you!

The facts:

Pendlebury
Last 3: 141, 124, 123 (129 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 121, 92, 99 (104 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 92, 87, 75 (85 avg)

Swan
Last 3: 171, 118, 101 (130 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 137, 141, 154 (144 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 141, 103, 82 (109 avg)

Mitchell
Last 3: 100, 113, 119 (111 avg)
Last 3 against North: 73, 112, 141 (109 avg)
Last 3 at Aurora: 119, 132, 129 (127 avg)

Cox
Last 3: 155, 137, 119 (137 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 103, 98, 152 (118 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 137, 94, 91 (107 avg)

Murphy
Last 3: 103, 118, 93 (105 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 145, 98, 122 (122 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 118, 93, 97 (103 avg)

Joel Selwood
Last 3: 178, 108, 70 (119 avg)
Last 3 against GC: 116 (116 avg)
Last 3 at Skilled: 178, 92, 124 (131 avg)

Stevie J
Last 3: 171, 74, 94 (113 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 171 (171 avg)
Last 3 at Skilled: 171, 66, 143 (127 avg)

Goddard
Last 3: 152, 115, 109 (125 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 41*, 120, 130 (97 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 115, 109, 130 (118 avg)
*Injury affected - subbed off after 41 in Q1.

Dal Santo
Last 3: 154, 140, 101 (132 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 112, 121, 130 (121 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 140, 101, 120 (120 avg)

The thoughts:

Pendlebury - Edited due to bad Adelaide weather
Pendlebury's recent form is fantastic and he has now recorded 10 straight 100+ scores! Sadly, he has never recorded a ton at AAMI in his four games there (82 avg) and that alone is a good reason not to make him your captain. He'll likely be tagged by one of Thomas or Cornes and that will limit his scoring. However, we must remember that Port are "not up to AFL standard" so he will probably break his ton drought at AAMI. Prediction - 95

Swan - Edited due to bad Adelaide weather
Recent form - amazing! Form against Port - amazing! Only problem is... will he be tagged? He looked effective in the second half last week and got way too much of the ball. Either way, I'm still backing a huge one from him. Swan is back to perma captain. Prediction - 130

Mitchell
Only one behind Pendlebury, Mitchell has score 9 consecutive tons and will be looking for his 10th this week. That form looks good but so does his form at Aurora. Mitchell has 6 straight tons in Launceston which spans all games there in the last two seasons. The one thing worrying me is that he hasn't played against the Roos since 2009 and his 141 was back in 08. Still, hard not to back Mitchell for a good score with his consistency and season form. Prediction - 120

Cox
Cox is a ruckman and has let people down before this season (including me) but it is very hard to look past his recent form. It worries me that his last two against the Tigers (who were even worse the last two years) were only around the 100 mark. I know people will say "but Richmond has no ruckman" but Richmond didn't have a ruckman last year either... There could be something about match ups but the two teams are quite different this year than last. Hard to predict but probably risky. Still, it's Dean Cox against the Tigers so it can't be that disappointing. Prediction - 120

Murphy
The main reason that Murphy is being looked at is that Melbourne gave up 9 tons last week. The Dees gave up a massive 2236 DT points that game (that's over 100 per player including those affected by the vest). Murphy's recent form hasn't been amazing but he smashed the Dees earlier in the year and the Blues will be fighting hard for that spot in the top four. The biggest question is what Melbourne will be like with a new coach. Prediction - 120

Joel Selwood
I was going to say something like "don't expect the same as last week because the Gold Coast will put up a strong fight" but then I heard the news that Ablett was out. Expect another absolute smashing down at the cattery with a lot of big scores. Considering the lack of tag by the Suns, you'd expect Selwood to have an absolute field day. Prediction - 140

Stevie J
I heard someone say that Stevie J only scores big when he kicks a bag, e.g. 171 from 7.1 and 171 from 7.3. But then I looked into his next best score, 143 against the Bulldogs, and saw he only kicked 2.2 (27 disposals, 11 marks, 6 tackles). With roller coaster scoring, I'd usually say Stevie J is not a reliable option, but if you read what I wrote about Selwood, an Ablett-less Gold Coast team should be a pushover for the Cats. For Johnson, a pushover likely means lots of goals and lots of stats. Expect a big one! But NOTE: there is always a big risk with Stevie J. Prediction - 135

Goddard
Firstly, that 41 was when he was subbed off after quarter one with neck convulsions, so ignore it. Excluding that score, Goddard has scored tons in his last 3 against the Dockers. BJ is definitely back with his 152 making owners reminisce of previous seasons when he was a good captain choice week in and week out. He likes playing against Fremantle, likes playing at Etihad and is in very good form. Definitely worth a look. Prediction - 120

Dal Santo
NDS is in amazing form and is not slowing down. One of many to score over 150 last week, his scores have been phenomenal and it's not just his season form I'm talking about. Nicky Dal loves to play against Fremantle and also loves playing at Etihad. The thought of a tag shouldn't turn you away as he has been beating tags all season and should do so again this week. 5 of his last 6 have been 120+ and it should be safe to expect another score around that mark. Prediction - 130

The verdict:

1. Selwood (140)
2. Johnson (135)
3. Swan (130)
4. Dal Santo (130)
5. Mitchell (120)

Requests:

Rockliff - Requested by elephants
Last 3: 110, 117, 111 (113 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 103, 68 (86 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 117, 121, 103 (114 avg)

I would suggest ignoring those Adelaide scores because this is Rocky's breakout year. He seems like a safe bet for 110 every week but his ceiling is nothing special. He has never scored higher than 121 at the Gabba and his best scores are 134 and 132 (both at the MCG, surprisingly). Probably a safe pick against the Crows to get you 110+, but when there are as many good options as there are this week, I probably wouldn't bother. Prediction - 115

Redden - Requested by Ago97
Last 3: 119, 93, 130 (114 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 95, 53, 92 (80 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 93, 129, 118 (113 avg)

With very similar scoring potential to Rockliff, Redden is usually a safe bet for about 110 but he's had a few downers this year. Last time he played Adelaide, he ran with Douglas and didn't do badly for a 95 but was probably beaten (marginally) in the matchup. He probably won't be tagged so he will probably be in a similar role with the biggest difference being the Gabba instead of AAMI. Should be safe for a decent score but maybe not as captain. Prediction - 110

Goodes - Requested by charlesy11
Last 3: 150, 89, 111 (117 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 120, 72, 90 (94 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 91, 76, 116 (94 avg)

Goodes has been very up and down this season and, frankly, is not a safe pick. If you just want to go by most recent games, you could be confident with Goodes having 150 in his last and 120 in his last vs. Essendon. As there always is with Goodes, there's a good shot of a big score but there is way too much downside with the chance for an 80 or so. For the sake of this thread, I'll assume an average game. Prediction - 105

Scott Thompson (ADE) - Requested by thanme
Last 3: 71, 121, 104 (99 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 126, 72, 77 (92 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 72, 57, 59 (63 avg)

His recent form isn't bad but he has been up and down this season. He hasn't score a ton at the Gabba from 7 games but the Lions are fairly down at the moment so it is always possible. Don't expect a big score as his form against Brisbane isn't great either. His 126 against them in Round 10 was a very good 36 possession game but it is hard to rely on that one game as an evaluation of his potential this week. I wouldn't think he'll score highly this week, whether he breaks his Gabba drought or not. Prediction - 100

Judd - Requested by Spite
Last 3: 93, 138, 104 (112 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 133, 95, 95 (108 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 138, 104, 138 (127 avg)

Judd has very similar numbers to Murphy in terms of recent form and form against Melbourne. Judd likes the MCG and has scored 130+ three times at the MCG this year. Remember, Melbourne gave up 9 tons last week and are in fairly awful form at the moment. They'll probably have no answer for Judd and he should do pretty well. Prediction - 120

Franklin - Requested by Spite
Last 3: 68, 127, 109 (101 avg)
Last 3 against North: 98, 113, 74 (95 avg)
Last 3 at Aurora: 109, 108, 127 (115 avg)

I have a rule against putting Buddy as captain because he is very inconsistent. However, this year at Aurora, he is 3 for 3 with tons so he seems relatively "safe". I wouldn't expect anything huge from him as he hasn't really smashed it against North before but he should be safe for a ton. Not really captain material though. Prediction - 105

Shiels - Requested by peteerb
Last 3: 66, 80, 85 (77 avg)
Last 3 against North: 49, 80 (65 avg)
Last 3 at Aurora: 85, 114, 81 (93 avg)

His last three have been well down on his season form and I wouldn't feel comfortable betting on him bouncing back this week. Shiels hasn't done well in his only two games against North and he hasn't even been that great at Aurora. Probably not the week you want to rely on this young gun. Prediction - 85

Bartel - Requested by peteerb
Last 3: 127, 105, 120 (117 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 67 (67 avg)
Last 3 at Skilled: 127, 123, 91 (114 avg)

Jimmy is back in good form and did well last week (but so did most of Geelong). He was fairly average against the Gold Coast up there but it's hard to know how to judge that. Without Ablett, Geelong should have a fairly easy game and this will probably help Bartel, but I don't think he'll be the best from Geelong. Likely a good score but just as likely that there'll be better. Prediction - 120

ROK - Requested by Cicjose
Last 3: 87, 87, 97 (90 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 102, 102, 113 (106 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 88, 100, 103 (97 avg)

ROK's recent form has been consistent but nothing special. His form against Essendon is equally consistent and marginally better. He rarely plays at Etihad so it's a ground that is fairly foreign to him. I don't feel we'll see a big score out of him this week but he should be solid for a forward - just not a captain! Prediction - 90

Gibbs - Requested by Chelskiman
Last 3: 144, 114, 107 (122 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 105, 53, 120 (93 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 114, 107, 83 (101 avg)

Gibbs is in pretty good form at the moment but has been fairly inconsistent this year. His 53 against Melbourne was last year when, interestingly, he played a full back role on Green for the first quarter before playing an uncharacteristically quiet game after being released. I don't expect that kind of game to be repeated this week and he should rack up a decent chunk of the ball. Just remember, Melbourne gave up 9 tons last week and they'll surely give Gibbs one this time. Prediction - 115

Corey - Requested by The It
Last 3: 164, 107, 91 (121 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 96 (96 avg)
Last 3 at Skilled: 164, 102, 77 (114 avg)

Corey has only score above 110 this season and that was in last week's whitewash. He's averaging below 95 and is fairly risky. That being said, he is playing against the Gold Coast without Ablett and should do fairly well. Still, not a good captain choice. Prediction - 110

If you want me to look at another option, just ask in the comments!

[JBs-Hawks]

Remember cox wasnt at his Dt slut self last year only averaging 84 so thats why his tiger scores are distorted so id expect a big one from him too

[elephants]

I'll have my weekly request of Rockliffe please HuggyBear :)

[Chelskiman]

Cox will destroy us, but I'm still going with Swan this week.  I was stupid and went with Montanga last week, so it's back to what I know best this week.

[LaHug]

Remember cox wasnt at his Dt slut self last year only averaging 84 so thats why his tiger scores are distorted so id expect a big one from him too

Cox will destroy us, but I'm still going with Swan this week.  I was stupid and went with Montanga last week, so it's back to what I know best this week.

Valid arguments for Cox but I don't like ruckmen and key position players because of the risk associated with them. Any bad stats (such as a not super flashy record against a particular team) is enough for me to not consider them at all. Especially considering there are better options.

[LaHug]

I'll have my weekly request of Rockliffe please HuggyBear :)

Done :)

I'm going to bed now and I dunno if I'll be able to do much during uni but I should be back to stats research and advice giving tomorrow afternoon. Feel free to pile up the requests and give me any thoughts and feedback :)

[Ago97]

jack redden my request please
thanks LH

[charlesy11]

Adam Goodes if you could please...cheers

[PowerBug]

I don't know La Hug, have you fallen for the Stevie J trap?

[wcarey]

Good work LaHug. I think you just surpassed Calvins Captains......are you a pirate too??

Crucial week for captain choices with this being the last game of the reg season. I have Swan, Johnson & Rockliff narrowed down as the choices in my side. Think I will go with Swan as I don't really need to take any risks.

I think Stevie J would be a great choice aswell though. My opinion is that he could score anywhere from 110(far from a disaster) up to 180. Should kick at least 5 goals and there is no Khunt to play a shut down role. Bokchoy should take mooney/pod/hawkins.

showere I think I've just talked myself into Johnson as captain. Johnson it is :D

[dale93]

Swan for me :)50 possestions :)

[PowerBug]

Swan for me :)50 possestions :)

Probably.

[thanme]

It's a toss up between the "safe" Swan and the potential of Stevie J against the Suns at Skilled. I have an easy win this week, so I might just take a punt.

Can you look into Redden and Scotty Thompson please??

[LaHug]

jack redden my request please
thanks LH

Adam Goodes if you could please...cheers

Done both. :)

[LaHug]

I don't know La Hug, have you fallen for the Stevie J trap?

I intended on writing something like "don't take a risk on Stevie J as he could let you down big time". Then I heard Ablett was out, I remembered how Geelong played last week, I didn't think Bock would take him, and I assumed there would be some midfield time for him. That was enough for me to figure he doesn't carry as big a risk as he usually does. I like him this week.

Good work LaHug. I think you just surpassed Calvins Captains......are you a pirate too??

Crucial week for captain choices with this being the last game of the reg season. I have Swan, Johnson & Rockliff narrowed down as the choices in my side. Think I will go with Swan as I don't really need to take any risks.

I think Stevie J would be a great choice aswell though. My opinion is that he could score anywhere from 110(far from a disaster) up to 180. Should kick at least 5 goals and there is no Khunt to play a shut down role. Bokchoy should take mooney/pod/hawkins.

showere I think I've just talked myself into Johnson as captain. Johnson it is :D

I like your thought process. No, I'm not a pirate, maybe I'll become something one day. Stevie J should be good. However, Swan and Selwood could also be considered as anywhere from 110 to 180. But I'd consider that 110 more of a 120...