LaHug's Captains - Round 18

[LaHug]

Howdy guys and gals. If you hadn't noticed yet, I've been doing a weekly write up on who you should put as captain. I'm back again this week and less busy than last week so I have time to take requests. Feel free to ask for reasonable requests in case you want some stats and thoughts.

The facts:

Pendlebury
Last 3: 123, 107, 105 (112 avg)
Last 3 against GC: N/A
Last 3 at Metricon: N/A

Daisy
Last 3: 135, 113, 124 (124 avg)
Last 3 against GC: N/A
Last 3 at Metricon: N/A

Swan
Last 3: 101, 148, 130 (126 avg)
Last 3 against GC: N/A
Last 3 at Metricon: N/A

Mitchell
Last 3: 119, 137, 128 (128 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 110, 90, 112 (104 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 137, 128, 110 (125 avg)

Boyd
Last 3: 102, 119, 93 (105 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 134, 91, 110 (112 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 110, 73, 51 (78 avg)

Ablett
Last 3: 101, 23, 175 (100 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 122, 108, 105 (112 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 23, 118, 146 (96 avg)

Murphy
Last 3: 93, 116, 97 (102 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 86, 103, 78 (89 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 93, 97, 145 (112 avg)

The thoughts:

Pendlebury
Pendlebury is the champion of big games and is Mr. Consistent the rest of the time (hasn't dropped below 100 since round 8 ). You wouldn't say this is a big game but it is against the Suns; a team that doesn't tag anyone and often gives up big scores. No chance of a score below 100 and a good chance of a big score. A good, safe choice this week. Prediction - 120

Daisy
Surely the inform player at Collingwood, Daisy is a unique superstar and a DT (and SC) slut! Although he can attract a strong tag, the Suns don't tag people and Daisy loves playing against mediocre sides (see his first half against the Kangaroos). The only risk with captaining this bloke is IF (and that's a bloody big IF) he somehow scores poorly, it'll be a unique mistake. Probably not the safest pick but I think the best pick. Prediction - 140+

Swan
You know the King of DT is back when people are moaning about a 101. Swan loves big scores, loves crap teams and is playing the Gold Coast. The only downside is that just about everyone will have him captain this week. No risk but no reward if he doesn't fly (don't worry, he will). Prediction - 135

Mitchell
Playing very well this season and is enjoying the MCG too. In the unlikely case that you don't have one of those three Magpies, he looks like a good choice. It is important to note that Melbourne are giving up good scores recently (11 tons in their last three games against such poor teams as Port and Richmond). The Dees also gave up 5 tons the last time they played Hawthorn. Prediction - 120

Boyd
Firstly, ignore those SCG scores because they go as far back as 2006. Then, remember that Boyd has been very average recently, is playing the Swans and that you should definitely have Collingwood players to choose from. Don't captain this bloke, he's not worth the risk. Prediction - 95

Ablett
Ablett's averages include that injury affected 23, so you should just ignore those. Notice that he likes playing Collingwood and he probably gets a bit more protection with the GC because he's their captain and they need to give him the ball. I think he'll bounce back after the injury this week, but there are better and safer options. Prediction - 120

Murphy
He didn't do well against Essendon earlier in the year, Essendon look to be in form again and his recent form has been down. It's hard to get that 145 out of your mind but Murphy's days of go-to-captaincy seem to be up. Potential to do well but not worth the risk. Prediction - 100

The verdict:

1. Daisy (140+)
2. Swan (135)
3. Pendlebury (120)
4. Mitchell (120)
5. Ablett (120)

Requests:

Scott Thompson (ADE) Requested by Cicjose
Last 3: 104, 92, 101 (101 avg)
Last 3 against St. Kilda: 103, 105, 74 (94 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 116, 75, 108 (100 avg)

Not the best scoring premium in the game but a reliably consistent one. Shouldn't let you down but not the player to get you over the line. Wouldn't consider him captain unless I was very desperate for a unique option. Prediction - 100

Buddy Franklin Requested by G()D
Last 3: 109, 55, 108 (91 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 87, 103, 94 (95 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 55, 86, 125 (89 avg)

If those low averages don't tell you he's not captain material, the fact that he'll have Frawley should. Frawley has held his last three opponents to a COMBINED score of 170. That's an average of 57. And that's while the Dees have being giving away ton after ton. I was at the last Melbourne vs. Hawthorn game and thought Buddy was playing very well and he still only managed to get 87. I don't like his chances against Frawley so he's not an option this week. Prediction - 80

Montagna Requested by Chelskiman
Last 3: 124, 78, 105 (102 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 70, 112, 151 (111 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 124, 105, 151 (127 avg)

Joey's been a bit of a rollercoaster this year and captaining him is full of risk. However, he is an Etihad specialist with only score below 100 there this year (99 in round 3). His recent form is as much of a rollercoaster as his season has been so there's just as much potential for a blinder as a flop. Adelaide have been relatively restrictive recently with only two scores above 110 (although they've been 132 and 153) and some great shut down roles on some key players (see Boyd's 70). They shouldn't destroy Montagna's score but they won't let it be huge either. There are better choices this week. Prediction - 105

Cox Requested by Chelskiman
Last 3: 119, 94, 87 (100 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 91, 79, 93 (88 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 94, 91, 145 (110 avg)

Whether in Perth or not, Cox is a fair bit down on his perma-captain form. Last week's disappointment and the fact that it's the showdown should fire him up and I actually expect a good score from the big Cox. However, with so many better options and the fact that we should have learnt not to captain a ruckman by now (many of us have been disappointed by a 90 or 80 something from captain Cox this year), it's probably not the week to take a punt on the big fella. Prediction - 115

Chapman Requested by Chelskiman
Last 3: 71, 109, 128 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 140, 75, 119 (111 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 128, 110, 126 (121 avg)

Chappy likes Etihad because it's easier to score highly and move quickly at Etihad. It's also easy to score highly against Richmond; the team without a backline. Despite a 71 last week, Chappy should tear it up against a hapless Tigers but BE WARNED: Chapman is very good at letting people down. I put him in a category of "not worth the risk" alongside Buddy. If you have the guts and want a unique captain, however, Chappy is your man. I'd back him for a big one this week against a Richmond team in a form slump that makes them the worst team in the competition. The only reason he's not in my top 5 is because he's in the "not worth the risk" category. Prediction - 125

Selwood Requested by Spite
Last 3: 70, 108, 92 (90 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 126, 85, 115 (109 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 122, 113, 139 (125 avg)

So, his recent form has been everything short of good for someone of Selwood's calibre. If you held him and saw that 70 last week, you'd have been pretty frustrated (I know I was). Will this week be different? Richmond have given up 3 tons a game since that Port loss that caused a form slump and some of them have been fairly huge. However, despite the crap form, the Tigers have still been relatively restrictive in DT terms (likely due to two things: 1. a decent midfield still getting a fair bit of the ball, 2. a crap backline meaning the ball stays inside the defensive 50 instead of having more midfield play). I'd expect a good one from Selwood, but like many others, too much risk! Still, a good choice if you have nobody else or you're a risk taker. Prediction - 120

Cloke Requested by glam77
Last 3: 100, 97, 114 (104 avg)
Last 3 against GC: N/A
Last 3 at Metricon: N/A

Without Dawes, Cloke has been given extra attention from the opposition but still managed scores of 97 and 100. He's very unlikely to score horribly, but Nathan Bock loves playing on key forwards and will probably do a good job containing Cloke. This won't worry the Magpies as their midfielders love to kick goals, but don't expect a haul from the big man. Prediction - 90

Rockliff Requested by elephants
Last 3: 117, 111, 121 (116 avg)
Last 3 against North: 59, 116 (88 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 95, 91, 94 (93 avg)

Rocky has turned into a superstar of the competition and has only score under 90 twice this season. Once was an 86 against Gold Coast, the other was... well... a 59 against the Kangaroos. If you're willing to ignore that game (which you may well be), the rest looks great. Never scored below 90 at Etihad, is in ripper form and the Kangaroos continue their pattern of giving up tons. Wouldn't expect a huge score this week but there's always a chance and he should crack the ton. Prediction - 110

Petrie Requested by nostradamus
Last 3: 146, 24, 51 (74 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 125, 81, 104 (103 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 146, 51, 94 (97 avg)

With high highs and low lows, Petrie is a HUGE risk to make captain. However, with his good recent form against Brisbane and a high ceiling, Petrie could make for a very good unique pick. Last time Petrie scored above 140, his next three scores were below the ton. Those two scores before his 146 (24 and 51) are absolutely shocking but they're the kind of disappointments Petrie can surprise you with. Key forwards have torn it up against Brisbane in the last few weeks (Pods had 8 goals and a 115, Buddy 109, Schulz had 7 goals and 127, Pav had 5 goals and 132) and I'm backing Petrie to do the same. Just remember, the risk is high but the reward could be higher! Prediction - 130 with a high risk of 70

If you want me to look at another option, just ask in the comments!

[j959]

Cheers La, good luck for this round (and beyond)!  :D

[LaHug]

Cheers La, good luck for this round (and beyond)!  :D

Thanks :D

[97crows98]

Great research, I have Swan, Pendles, GAJ, Boyd & Mitchell, what a predicament. I'm going Swan though.

[Cicjose]

S Thompson any chance LA DT?

[nostradamus]

swan dt and pendles sc

[LaHug]

S Thompson any chance LA?

I'll have a look now!

[Weagle]

Will Swan get 50 touches?

[GoLions]

Will Swan get 50 touches?

thats just a stupid stupid question.

of course he will

[Flame]

I am going swan in the hope he gets 50 touches

[LaHug]

Will Swan get 50 touches?

I'd bet that Swan, Pendles and Daisy will have 100+ between them...

[Alka]

Can't see past Swan this week. There's very little potential for anyone to outscore him. The only two I'd consider are Daisy, who hardly anyone has, and Ablett. But Swan offers so little risk it's pretty much a no brainer.

[LaHug]

Can't see past Swan this week. There's very little potential for anyone to outscore him. The only two I'd consider are Daisy, who hardly anyone has, and Ablett. But Swan offers so little risk it's pretty much a no brainer.

I honestly think Daisy will score higher which is why I had to put him number one. But you're right, Swan is safer. Still, look out for anything upwards of 140 from Daisy.

[Flame]

Can't see past Swan this week. There's very little potential for anyone to outscore him. The only two I'd consider are Daisy, who hardly anyone has, and Ablett. But Swan offers so little risk it's pretty much a no brainer.

I honestly think Daisy will score higher which is why I had to put him number one. But you're right, Swan is safer. Still, look out for anything upwards of 140 from Daisy.

Stick to your guns and go with daisy La hug. Great read by the way!

[LaHug]

Can't see past Swan this week. There's very little potential for anyone to outscore him. The only two I'd consider are Daisy, who hardly anyone has, and Ablett. But Swan offers so little risk it's pretty much a no brainer.

I honestly think Daisy will score higher which is why I had to put him number one. But you're right, Swan is safer. Still, look out for anything upwards of 140 from Daisy.

Stick to your guns and go with daisy La hug. Great read by the way!

Well, I don't have him, so I'll be going Swan. But I would be going Daisy if I did and I will definitely keep him number one on my list. Thanks :)