LaHug's Captains - Round 17

[LaHug]

Sorry it's so late! I'm very busy and about to go out again. I won't have time to do requests this week so I'll just be looking at the guys I think will score highly. Sadly, there are not a huge number of good options this week and I'm sure I have missed some of them (my top 3 are always midfielders as, bluntly, I find they're the only safe options).

The facts:

Swan
Last 3: 148, 130, 125 (134 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 116, 114, 140 (123 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 148, 130, 83 (120 avg)

Boyd
Last 3: 119, 93, 136 (116 avg)
Last 3 against North: 148, 108, 79 (112 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 119, 93, 70 (94 avg)

Selwood
Last 3: 108, 92, 116 (105 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 162, 110, 84 (119 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 110, 84, 97 (97 avg)

The thoughts:

Swan
His last two against Carlton have been mediocre by his standards and, frankly, that's because Carlton have become a good side. Still, if mediocre means scores around 115, you're looking at a reliable option. His last three games (since he came back from Arizona) have reminded us why this guy used to be the perma captain of choice. Surely he'll give us another good game. Are the Blues good enough to slow him down though? Unlikely! Despite his recent scores, the Blues are Swan's second favourite team. I wouldn't expect this to be Swanny's best game, but he seems to be a safe bet. Prediction - 130

Boyd
Despite the averages not looking too special, that 148 last time against North looks delicious. Add the facts that the Doggies are back, North are crap (giving up 12 tons in the last two weeks and even giving up a couple against an awful Port side), and Boyd is well overdue for a 140; this is the week! There comes some risk with this decision as Boyd has been a disappointment more than once this year. Still, I can feel an eruption coming. Prediction - 140

Selwood
Surely, after many weeks off, Selwood is raring to go! Whether you consider his rest a good thing or a bad thing, it's hard to deny one of the greatest young DTers of the current era. His last score of 162 against the Lions was, sadly, not at the Gabba, and he's only played their three times in his entire career. Still, the Lions are one of those teams that are usually good to score against (giving up approximately 3-4 tons a week and often one or two around 125-135). With the Cats on a two game losing streak, you'd expect Selwood to give it his all to turn that around. However, be warned, there is still a lot of risk with this decision. Prediction - 125.

The verdict:

1. Boyd (140)
2. Swan (130)
3. Selwood (125)

The others:

Ablett
Too much risk of not being 100%, being subbed after another knee knock or just playing it safe. That being said, if he is fine I'd predict a 130 from him. Prediction - 130 or 70

Pendlebury
Last time he played Carlton, Bryce Gibbs shut him out of the game entirely. Expect much of the same as it was a real positive for the blues. Prediction - 80

Murphy
Last two against the Pies: 69, 67. If that's not enough for you, good luck! Prediction - 70

Richmond players
With Deledio being the only Tiger most teams would have, it's always good to look at someone against the Gold Coast. Recent form and scoring potential screams no! Playing the Gold Coast screams possibly... Not very promising but I have a feeling he'll still do well. Martin seems to have the highest ceiling of the Tigers but his recent form is even worse. Cotchin looks like the best option of the bunch with a good score (119) last week and a decent score (102) last time he travelled to Queensland. Others aren't really worth looking at. Predictions - Lids: 110, Martin: 100, Cotchin: 115

Goddard
He looks like he might be back and he scored 124 against West Coast last year with an 85 and 134 in 2009. Out of those three, the 134 was the only one at Etihad which is where he plays this week and hasn't dropped below 119 in the last three. A good option if you're looking for a unique captain choice in a week without Mitchell and where Ablett isn't a safe option. Prediction - 125

Hope this week's one is good. Sorry if it's a bit rushed, only had an hour to do it. Please yell out if any of the stats are wrong!!!

LaHug

[Master Q]

I was gonna go Swan...

You say Boyd. Haven't decided yet...

[LaHug]

I was gonna go Swan...

You say Boyd. Haven't decided yet...

To be fair, it's a coin flip.
Carlton may well play a lock down game to try and strangle the Pies like they did last time.
On the flip side, Boyd might score poorly just to piss people off again...

[Zarts]

I'm with swanny.

Incidentally  LH, how were your predictions last week? (with the except of GAJ)

[thanme]

Thanks LaHug!

Last time I flipped a coin between Boyd and Swan, it turned out horribly wrong for me. Swan it is!

[LaHug]

Incidentally  LH, how were your predictions last week? (with the except of GAJ)

Player - Predicted - Actual
Ablett - 140 - 23
Mitchell - 130 - 119
Swan - 130 - 148
Judd - 85 - 120
Boyd - 110 - 119
Pendlebury - 120 - 107
Goddard - 80 - 105
Murphy - 125 - 116

Fairly average, but I never thought DT was a predictable game.

Also, I'm off now. Won't be able to answer anything else til late tonight/tomorrow.

[Windigo]

I think Murphy will get more than 70. I reckon 100+. In brilliant form...Bit I wouldn't have him as C....Just might fail.

[Flame]

Great write up La Hug...you almost convinced me to go Boydy..but I'll stick with SWAN..

[bob321]

Great write up La Hug...you almost convinced me to go Boydy..but I'll stick with SWAN..

+1

[Master Q]

Great write up La Hug...you almost convinced me to go Boydy..but I'll stick with SWAN..

+1

Yeah I was thinking the same.

[TMurphBROWNLOW]

very good job la hug! excellent! :)

[LaHug]

Swan is probably the safer choice. I went Boyd though. Hopefully neither will do anyone any wrong!

[LaHug]

Eep! Hoping some people listened to me and took a punt on Boyd (not that he's a certainty to outscore Swan with this year's DT rollercoaster). Couldn't have predicted that low a score for Swanny though.

[Windigo]

I'll take it. Better than 23.

[Zarts]

or 67 :P