Ablett or Swan Poll

[Ago97]

I didnt think that ablett would be good this year because he wouldnt have enough good players to give him the ball, but he has proved me wrong and is carving up. i was going to get swan when he came back from arizona but im thinking of going for ablett instead.

Who would you guys get?

[someguy]

I shared the same thoughts as you Ago but he has proved us wrong. Here's my thoughts on his form this year:

Scores over 100 (4 games):

• Ablett scored 146 against a relatively poor North Melbourne side who seemed content to let Ablett run free as opposed to trying to tag him out of the game
• Against West Coast he also scored well (132) which was impressive given the difficulty teams/players have had tonneing up against the Eagles and their forward press and the fact that he was being tagged by Scott Selwood (admittedly not the best tagger in the league though)
• Dominanted Adelaide kicking 4 goals and had 41 touches even though he was being tagged by Douglas (again probably not the tightest tagger in the league - he 'tagged' Moloney who managed to get 19 clearances)
• Against the Doggies he tonned up again (115) despite being tagged by Picken, one of the tougher taggers in the league

Scores under 100 (5 games):

• Against top 4 sides, Geelong and Carlton he struggled (DT wise) with scores of 92 and 96 respectively (struggle being relative to the high expectations we have of Ablett/elite premiums). He was tagged in both these matches (although the Geelong game was more of a team effort as opposed to a single player running with him).
• Port Adelaide, despite being one of the worst teams in the league, often manages to limit the effectiveness of the oppositions top players (Judd, Pavlich, Swallow spring to mind), so Ablett's 83 is not a huge surprise (he was also coming back from a minor calf injury)
• Against an in form Essendon side he battled again this time against, in my opinion, one of the better taggers in the league in Heath Hocking as well as picking up a few knocks during the game. Finished with 81. This was his second game back from injury.
• Against Brisbane he struggled (84) but this is most likely due to few knocks he pick up early in the game

As you can see Ablett has performed very well against teams who will probably not make the top 8 (North, Adelaide, Dogs with West Coast being the exception) and poorly against some of the better teams/taggers (Geelong, Carlton, Port Adelaide, Essendon). I would be more inclined to go Swan from here on in given the fact that: 1) he should return from Arizona fit and healthy; 2) he has a much better support cast around him and 3) he is more likely to still score well againt the top teams (mostly due to the support cast he has around him). In saying that though I don't think there'll be a huge difference between the two.

[Ago97]

thanks for the research mate

[Windigo]

Ablett will get either get 140 or 80-100.

[hardnut]

Good research but I see the issue as much simpler. Ablett had no preseason in a new team. He's had to build match fitness and the team around him so started slowly as expected. His graph is seriously trending up now and I think he will score very few <90 scores from here (if any).

Swan is injured and there not really saying what is wrong "i've got a few things wrong with me" was Swan's reply, you don't go to Arizona for a calf niggle you get rested for 1 week and your sweet. Soooo we need to wait and see if this treatment actually works. His last game before leaving he could easily have scored 60, a few seagull goals propped the score up big time.

Answer: Ablett looks the better choice right now and will for at least the next few weeks. Then we'll all have to take another look.

[Lobbus]

Also Ablett no more byes and Swan may be rested/ given easier games before finals

[plugz19]

traded junior in this week, but would still have more confidence in bringing in swanny after he gets back from las vegas

[elephants]

Ideally i would love both but i've only got swanny and i'm bringing in pendles after the bye. I'm still pretty happy with my descision to bring in marc murphy over Gazza in round 10.... for now.

[ImSoHood]

If you have neither, the price tag needs to be considered.. Swan is looking at being $80K less than Gaj in a fortnight, which may sway some bargain hunters toward him. If you wait much longer for Ablett, you'd want to be certain he's pumping out 110+ for the rest of the season

[Ago97]

yeah price is a big factor,
swanny will be sooooooo cheap but will he be back to his scoring best?
but right now Ablett is at 430k (with a B/E 56) and is playing some fantastic footy
I reckon ill go Ablett or i could wait and see what he does against the hawks (but by then he could be 445k) and if he doesn't go well ill go 4 swan