GAJ Predictions...are you taking the risk?

The Grundles · May 24, 2011, 06:58:26 PM

So GAJ plays the Cats this week and has a B/E of 71. Priced at just over 400k ppl are thinking this is the lowest GAJ will be all year.

I do however feel that he won't have such a good week as he will be getting so much attention from the cattery. This is not only because its his old team and they wanna rough him up, but because they know exactly how he plays and will be able to read him like a book.

Any other team and I would have snapped up the chance to get him in...but I won't be this week for the above reasons.

Thoughts?

Chelskiman · May 24, 2011, 07:02:34 PM

Starting to think the same as you. I always wanted to get him in this round but the Cats are hot right now, and although it's a low BE for Gazza, I think if he beats it it won't be by much. I think he'll score around 80-85 this week. It's this reason I won't be jumping on just yet. Might get in Fyfe/S. Thompson this week and then jump on the Gaz train.

Fenno · May 24, 2011, 07:02:57 PM

B/E is 76 not 71. Will be the cheapest he is all year but I will wait a week before I jump on him.

The Grundles · May 24, 2011, 07:04:07 PM

Quote from: Chelskiman on May 24, 2011, 07:02:34 PM
Starting to think the same as you. I always wanted to get him in this round but the Cats are hot right now, and although it's a low BE for Gazza, I think if he beats it it won't be by much. I think he'll score around 80-85 this week. It's this reason I won't be jumping on just yet. Might get in Fyfe/S. Thompson this week and then jump on the Gaz train.

Exactly what I am doing...Fyfe in this week and GAJ next week.

gerco · May 24, 2011, 07:05:13 PM

Quote from: Chelskiman on May 24, 2011, 07:02:34 PM
Starting to think the same as you. I always wanted to get him in this round but the Cats are hot right now, and although it's a low BE for Gazza, I think if he beats it it won't be by much. I think he'll score around 80-85 this week. It's this reason I won't be jumping on just yet. Might get in Fyfe/S. Thompson this week and then jump on the Gaz train.

That's literally exactly what I'm thinking

The Grundles · May 24, 2011, 07:11:33 PM

Quote from: Fenno on May 24, 2011, 07:02:57 PM
B/E is 76 not 71. Will be the cheapest he is all year but I will wait a week before I jump on him.

Yeah 76...sorry about that.

Genie has him as an estimated increase of 9300...I can afford to wait

BillMurray · May 24, 2011, 07:32:40 PM

Quote from: The Grundles on May 24, 2011, 06:58:26 PM
So GAJ plays the Cats this week and has a B/E of 71. Priced at just over 400k ppl are thinking this is the lowest GAJ will be all year.

I do however feel that he won't have such a good week as he will be getting so much attention from the cattery. This is not only because its his old team and they wanna rough him up, but because they know exactly how he plays and will be able to read him like a book.

Any other team and I would have snapped up the chance to get him in...but I won't be this week for the above reasons.

Thoughts?

I think you guys are grossly underestimating how good Gary Ablett is. His fitness has been steadily increasing since his first game and was always going to take a while this year till he felt back to 100%. Doesn't matter who he's playing against or with, when he's on he literally cannot be stopped. You really think an aging Cameron Ling can curb Gazza? I'm not only bringing him in this week but very seriously considering him for captain over Swan... :o

Windigo · May 24, 2011, 07:50:22 PM

It will interesting to see how he goes.

He is a star and will get a ton. 8)

swedishhmafia · May 24, 2011, 07:58:48 PM

He simply isn't worth it, in a poor team it clearly effects his scoring ability, couple that with his injury concerns, no go for me especially at such a high price!

BillMurray · May 24, 2011, 08:02:17 PM

Quote from: swedishhmafia on May 24, 2011, 07:58:48 PM
He simply isn't worth it, in a poor team it clearly effects his scoring ability, couple that with his injury concerns, no go for me especially at such a high price!

'High Price' LOL. He's almost 90k under starting value and as good as any option around that price (with potential to be miles ahead). It's plain foolish to write a champion like Gablett of your list completely imo...

The Grundles · May 24, 2011, 08:24:56 PM

Quote from: BillMurray on May 24, 2011, 08:02:17 PM
Quote from: swedishhmafia on May 24, 2011, 07:58:48 PM
He simply isn't worth it, in a poor team it clearly effects his scoring ability, couple that with his injury concerns, no go for me especially at such a high price!

'High Price' LOL. He's almost 90k under starting value and as good as any option around that price (with potential to be miles ahead). It's plain foolish to write a champion like Gablett of your list completely imo...

100% agree...but if any team knows Gary then its gotta be the cats. Besides GC will get pumped this week and disposals will be heavily in the Cats favour...its not about doubting his ability its about how many possessions will GC and Gary get this weekend.

BillMurray · May 24, 2011, 08:33:18 PM

100% agree...but if any team knows Gary then its gotta be the cats. Besides GC will get pumped this week and disposals will be heavily in the Cats favour...its not about doubting his ability its about how many possessions will GC and Gary get this weekend.
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Valid point though sometimes you get surprised by the games where it should be stupidly one sided but the team with nothing to lose actually does better than expected. Such as the Pies v Adelaide last week for example...

TMurphBROWNLOW · May 24, 2011, 08:36:52 PM

GC will get pumped most weeks so there shouldn't really be a difference between the cats and the other opposition he plays. scores of 80-85 last three rounds before the 156 needs to be considered very heavily.

Master Q · May 24, 2011, 08:46:55 PM

No.

BillMurray · May 24, 2011, 08:51:19 PM

Quote from: TMurphBROWNLOW on May 24, 2011, 08:36:52 PM
GC will get pumped most weeks so there shouldn't really be a difference between the cats and the other opposition he plays. scores of 80-85 last three rounds before the 156 needs to be considered very heavily.

True but keep in mind wasn' nearly 100% match fit during those earlier games. Yes, he won't smash out 150 every match but his average will very likely keep improving as he finds rhythm and the team mature.