Ask Ziplock Week

[thanme]

It's on the cards, just not this week :P My last 2 upgrades have been Selwood and Goodes who were a little higher priority for me.

Thanks for that btw. Sounds like a plan.

[FLOPITOUT1]

woooah, nice question, I'm going to ignore byes as well, and go by how players SHOULD be scoring, not how they are. And my bench players are going to be rookies from this season ftr and I'll be mpping as well

Def: Goddard, Gibbs, Deledio, Adcock, Suckling, Scotland, Enright, Carrazzo (Heppell, Stanley, Jacobs)
Mids: Swan, Pendlebury, Selwood, Boyd, Mitchell, Watson, Rockliff (Swallow, Mzungu, Hibberd)
Rucks: Sandilands, Cox (Smith, J Tippett)
Fwds: Chapman, Franklin, Goodes, Pavlich, N Riewoldt, Sylvia, Fyfe (Krakouer, Petrie, Darling)

I know I put petrie in my bench, but hey, dpp purposes... just in case :P

I really like your team especially the 7 man midfield  :D

oh serious lol. Fine, keep rocky drop watson :P

All good just mucking around  :P  good advice Ziplock

[the wizard]

I've seen a few rookie coaches in my league make some dud upgrades in the past few weeks. The likes of dal santo and j riewoldt etc. are there any other players traps people should be aware of?

[Ziplock]

... I traded in jack riewoldt and dal santo as well...

Let me explain my logic though, with riewoldt, I have correctly predicted (since I got him when bottomed out) his score every week to within 5 points. So why did I pick him? Purely BECAUSE he depends on goals to score big, and with his finals draw + richmonds growing team strength, he's going to be smashing them out come round 22-24. Tasty north melbourne for grand final anyone?

As for dal santo, I wouldn't call that a rookie mistake either. If you got on after his carlton game, it was actually a pretty logical thing to do, except for the 60 odd (everyone has bad games), his second lowest score was 97, giving him an average of about 103, and as for his last couple of games, well, in 2010 he only dipped below 70 once, and rarely below 80. Honestly, for under 400k, and a player who discounting one bad game, was averaging 110, he looked excellent as the only performing saint. However, his last two games he has been absolutely dominated. Dal Santo is a player I for flowers sake do not want to talk about. SOAB.

Now I've covered my own bases, this season honestly, it's all up in the air. First rule of thumb, don't skimp on premiums like I did with Dal Santo. For instance, shiels is still ridiculously low priced for a player avging 100, however, I wouldn't be touching him. You want premium mids to at minimum being close to a certain 105+ which is no guarantee from a player like shiels.

Obviously other players such as higgins are going to take severe price drops over the next few rounds. Don't jump on higgins, he's an asshole and as many on this forum put it, the softest cock of them all. Heath Shaw- showed last week why I didn't pick him, as Higgins emulates soft cockness, Shaw wrote the book on DT rollercoasters. Many questions were asked- can heater keep it up? if last weeks game was any indication- no, he had a good 3rd quarter, the rest were showere. Keep off imo, he's a team maker or breaker.

Apart from that, the way scores have been going recently, with players like Goddard, broughton, riewoldt etc. etc. wway down on their averages, and players like suckling shiels stepping up to the plate, it's pretty hard to tell you specifically what players to avoid.

[bomberboy0618]

Hey zip, what would you say the most important part of the field to get fully upgraded first would be out of mids, backs and fwds. Also would you say Watson is a good upgraded if I only have 1 essendon player?

[Ziplock]

I'll answer the watson question
basically, no. Sure, his price'll take a dip, but bye the time you can fully utilize the deficit, it's going to be getting close to essendons second bye... you might only have him for like 9 rounds before needing to trade him, + his scoring potential could be seriously down coming back from injury.

And the answer is imo, mids. This is why

Backs: Many performing rookies, by fielding someone like stanley, hibberd, jacobs or heppell, you're only really losing 10-20 points max per week
Forward: the plethora of performing mid pricers such as petrie/ knights, which many people have, mean that for immediate upgrades they only have one or two rookies... and a lot of those spots are taken up by darling, who isn't in serious need of upgrading. Only another 10-20 ppg lost there

whilst your mids: Cream of the crop is really libba + swallow and maybe harris, averaging mid 70s/ 80s. Whilst you have players like pendles, boyd, swan, selwood all averaging 120.  40-50 point loss per week per rookie.

Need I say more? 

[Ziplock]

and, questions are open again :)

[Chopps]

need another back will be able to afford anyone

have gibbs, goddard, gram, adcock & deledio who would u get as the next best defender dont worry about byes and the like

[lnugawela]

Ziplock! Im reconsidering getting in T Lynch, just thinking he isnt capable of these big scores he has already got and has a big price tag, is he really worth it? Sure he will make maybe $200k or so but thats only like 80k profit. I know there is I Smith but not sure on his JS. Is there anyone else I could look to downgrade my forward line to?

[Ziplock]

chopps-
for pure value, enright or suckling. For consistency has to be someone like scotland.

For the rollercoaster.... shaw.

IMO, I would be looking at enright or scotland- enright is ridiculously cheaply priced, and should come out of the gates firing soon, while scotland is just beasting it atm, uber consistent. The only thing putting me off him is his finals bye (+ gibbs)

[Ziplock]

Ziplock! Im reconsidering getting in T Lynch, just thinking he isnt capable of these big scores he has already got and has a big price tag, is he really worth it? Sure he will make maybe $200k or so but thats only like 80k profit. I know there is I Smith but not sure on his JS. Is there anyone else I could look to downgrade my forward line to?

Honestly, GC were very competitive against adelaide and they beat the lions. That being said, he picked up two goals only to supplement his scoring, which indicates he isn't really a Jvoldt type of goal dependent player. That being said, he needs supply to use the ball, for instance, I can't see him scoring much above 50/60 against geelong. However, a 70+ average is, imo (once you discount his goal points and subtract a few for supply) is reachable for him, and you could very well be seeing those 90+ games against the following opponents he has remaining-
rd 12- north melbourne
rd 14- bulldogs
rd 17- richmond
rd 19- st kilda (50/50)
Rd 21-Brisbane
rd 22- Adelaide
rd 23- Melbourne

A 90+ from half his remaining games for his price... I'd consider.

[Weagle]

Great advice all round Ziplock :)

I really want to get Chappy in this week (and play him over Harris or Rioli), and I could do it (only just.. $2900 leftover) after a Krak & McKenzie -> I.Smith & Chappy double trade... if Smith is named...

That said, I'm very open to suggestions on what to do this week (going for League & playing a strong opponent this week, but easy couple of games afterwards).

13 trades, $13900 banked.

B: Lids, Gibbs, Goddard, Enright, Enright, Lower, Jacobs // Pup, L. Thompson, Toy
M: Swan, Pendles, Cross, Jelwood, Swallow, Harris // Heppell, McKenzie, Prestia
R: Cox, Zsmith // Sandy, Derickx
F: Roo, Goodes, Fyfe, Buddy, Stevie J, Rioli, Didak // Krak, Matera, Richo

[BGK]

Hey Zip.

I'm not sure if you've already answers this but I'm trying to decide who will be my permanent 8th defender. Currently my backline is Goddard, Gibbs, Deledio, Shaw, Heppel, Adcock, Stanley, Lower, Puopolo and Jacobs. I'm going to upgrade one of Stanley or Lower to either Rawlings, Enright or Suckling and keep the other for the year. I have a couple of issues with each of them. Lower has a higher ceiling yet is just as likely to be subbed off. When injured Players return to the Freo line up will Lower get the ass. Where as Stanley looks set for the year but won't score as high.

Your thoughts are appreciated mate. Thanks
 

[Ziplock]

Great advice all round Ziplock :)

I really want to get Chappy in this week (and play him over Harris or Rioli), and I could do it (only just.. $2900 leftover) after a Krak & McKenzie -> I.Smith & Chappy double trade... if Smith is named...

That said, I'm very open to suggestions on what to do this week (going for League & playing a strong opponent this week, but easy couple of games afterwards).

13 trades, $13900 banked.

B: Lids, Gibbs, Goddard, Enright, Enright, Lower, Jacobs // Pup, L. Thompson, Toy
M: Swan, Pendles, Cross, Jelwood, Swallow, Harris // Heppell, McKenzie, Prestia
R: Cox, Zsmith // Sandy, Derickx
F: Roo, Goodes, Fyfe, Buddy, Stevie J, Rioli, Didak // Krak, Matera, Richo

I would be getting chappy. If Smith isn't named, go for mzungu, with freos injury list he should be good for games.

I would be looking at playing chappy over didak at this point in time, that being said your forward line is already pretty powerful (presuming dids + rioli return to form), and with enright, stevie J and jelwood, having 4 cats is REALLY pushing it for league. Working to finishing off your mids by trading in thompson (under 400k, averaging 108), or Ablett could be the way to go, (you've named enright twice in your backline?), or even upgrading a back and finishing off that line.

Honestly, I'm a little stumped atm as to what you should be doing. If you REALLY feel chappy is necessary, and are 100% confident you'll finish top 4 + win your first finals game, then it's worthwhile doing it. If you have a shadow of a doubt though, I wouldn't. 

[PowerBug]

When you say points lost, what do you mean and how do you determine how many points you've lost.