My evaluation of deck of dream team atm

[Ziplock]

Probably a little too much to call this an evaluation, but basically, I'll be tossing in what Deck of DT's predicted avgs were for their players, and what the players actually got. This way, we have a frame of reference for next year :)

ftr though, for people who just got injured like brown, I'll just skip.
Basically it's going to go
Name              Expected Av.                 Current Av.                           Difference
Bartel-              112                             105                                      -7
A. Krakouer-      62                              69                                       +7   
Brennan-           95                              86                                        -9 
Rawlings-           96                              84                                       -12
Kerr-                 87                              73                                       -14
Montagna-         115                            98                                        -17
Hodge-             108                             81                                       -27
Redden-            87                              103                                      +16
Gilbert-              90                              66                                        -24
Goodes-             96                             97                                        -1
Deledio-             96                             91                                        -5
Broughton-         95                             62                                        -32
Rioli-                  95                              91                                        -4
Didak-                100                            79                                       -21
Grimes-              90                              90 ( excluding injury)               0
Chapman-          115                            102                                      -13
Knights-             85                             82                                         -3
G Ablett-           115                           102                                        -13
Boyd-                117                           119                                        +2
Stanton-            105                           110 (excluding injury)               +5
K. Jack-             102                            95                                         -8
Fevola-              80                             DNP                                       DNP 
Palmer-             90                             62                                         -28
McLean-            83                             DNP                                       DNP
Tambling-          87                             71                                         -16
Fraser-              75                             71                                         -4
Sewell-             98                             92                                         -6
Morton-            87                             50                                         -37
N Voldt-           105                            81                                         -24
Gibbs-              110                            103                                       -7
Cox-                101                            112                                       +11
Petterd-           82                              67                                        -15
Varcoe-            83                              65                                       -18
Foley-              84                              76                                        -8
Boak-              101                             87                                        -14
Petrie-             85                              81                                        -4
Otten-             82                              66                                        -16
Sandilands-       95                              105                                       +10
Everitt-            82                              58                                        -24
Beams-            93                              90                                         -3
Sylvia-             100                             104                                       +4
Ward-             88                               82                                         -6
Vince-            93                                73                                        -20
Duncan-         80                                80                                         0
Adcock-         82                                98                                        +16
Goddard-       120                               83                                        -37
Bruce-           100                               69                                        -31
Shuey-          85                                 71                                        -14
Walker-         90                                 65                                        -25
Rich-             92                                 85                                          -7
L. Anthony-  105                                84                                         -21
D Swan-       127                               123                                         -4

Ok, I've tried to align those statistics, and I'm just going to run a basic analysis of these 49 players (I removed brown due to injury, and wont be counting either fev or mclean).

So basically, any of these picks, that performed on or above their estimates, would have been great assets to your team
9/49

anyone within 5 points deficit of their prediction would have been still would have been a good pick
8/49

anyone within 10 points, isn't a bad pick, and could still be advantageous (depending on starting price)
6/49

so, 23 of those players would have been at least alright to have chosen, based on their predicted averages

More than 10 points would not really  have much advantage, if any and would be an average pick at best

7/49

More than 15 points would certainly be a bad pick
4/49

More than 20 points would be a very bad pick
8/49

and more than 30 points would be an atrocious pick
7/49
(special mention to -37 goddard and -32 broughton)

Now, before all the DTT fanboys have a whinge at me, I'm not trying to hack out of the DTT guys, they do a good job and provide pretty solid information for those chumps who cbf to research a lot themselves (like myself- I'll stat crunch, but flower anything else :P ), what this really shows, with only 22/49 (47%) of those players really getting a pass, is that DTT are pretty much as reliable as any other source.

So, to anyone who might get off over their articles, remember, they're only human,  and don't take their word/ advice as law, frankly, your own intuition, or any decisions you make based on their information, is probably just as good, if not better than their own.

Remember, they told us to pick Broughton. :P

Thanks everyone!

:-X

[elephants]

great work zip :)
they were off a few times, but they are human too!
good guestimates in the end.

[Nails]

You have a few minuses that should be pluses.

Sandi and Cox and there might have been a few others, I didn't check that hard.

[Ziplock]

damn, yeah, I'll fix that... I think I got so used to pressing - I missed a couple of +s :P

[jeffbutch]

good work zip

[bundyboy]

Zip - you obviously have WAYYYYY too much time on your hands...

but great stuff !!

I think it just confirms exactly what we might have expected...there are humans involved in all this..

humans who do the analysis and views, and then humans actually who play the game and generate the scores on ground...

human error variation x human error variation - makes it all a bit of an educated guess...and I'm not sure DTT is much better or worse than anyone else in prediction....

[Ziplock]

Yeah, I do have way too much time on my hands. But, it gives me something to do :P

[Bluke]

discluding... you mean excluding!

Otherwise well done!

[Ziplock]

damn, my hsc english teachers would shoot me for that, thanks bluke.