Project "Get Chapman"

[joshas182]

Hi, this is my first post and hope I can get some advice!

Am currently sitting 2nd in league, 3-0 start and going for league primarily with $23,100 banked.
I am playing a tough-ish opponent this week (Rd7) but a bottom-dweller Rd8, so no changes needed then.
Have made 2 trades this season and here is my team as it stands - I will be taking into account the Pies bye this week :

Backs: Gibbs, Deledio, Heppell, Goddard, Grimes, Duigan, Lower (H.Shaw, A.Otten, Toy)
Mids: Boyd, Curnow, Libba, Goodes, Swallow, Harris (Swan, D.Thomas, A. Kraks)
Rucks: Cox, Ryder (Smith, McCauley)
Forwards: Franklin, N.Roo, Tapscott, Pavlich, B.Harvey, O'Keefe (Matera, Prestia, Richardson)

My opponents team:
Backs: Gibbs, Deledio, Heppell, Goddard, Grimes, Duigan, Adcock (B.Smith, Lower, Batchelor)
Mids: Boyd, Curnow, Libba, Bartell, Redden, S.Thompson (Harris, Duncan, Atley)
Rucks: Cox, Smith (Fraser, McCauley)
Forwards: Franklin, N.Roo, Tapscott, Stevie J, A.Kraks, Petrie (Matera, McKernan, Richardson)

My proposition is trade D.Thomas --> Ellard and pick up $134,000, use the $$ to trade N.Roo --> Chapman and end up with $25,600. Ellard has a better AVG, is on the bubble of gaining $40k+ and no bye this week (Does next week but playing a bottom-dweller).
Will prob drop Duigan in the next few weeks as he get close to dropping below his BE.

Thoughts on this? Will it get me across the line?

[joshas182]

On an extra note...I was originally thinking Duigan --> Hibberd and then N.Roo --> Chapman, but would'nt get me the win this week.

[Ziplock]

So taking out common players, it comes down to

Lower v adcock       -20
goodes v bartel       -20
(A or D) swallow vs redden (either 0 or negative 20-40)
harris vs thompson    (-20-40)
ryder vs smith          (+50 if you're lucky)
Pav vs Stevie J         0
Harvey V Krak          30
Keefe vs Petrie        30

im not going to use specific averages, but I'll run estimates. So best case scenario it'll be close atm, but in your way by 50 points. Worst case and it'll be close and you'll lose.

But, considering you'll be subbing harris for ellard probably, you're picking up what, maybe 20-30 points? IMO not worth it. Take the loss this week worst case scenario. Neither is it worth it to trade out Nvoldt.

however, trading otten and upgrading duigan *may* be a viable option.

[C-Dogg]

just remember if your going to get chappy (which we all should be considering and congrats to whom have him ) you should allow 1trade for the i wont say it TWINGGGGGGGG or SNAPPPPPPP

[joshas182]

(A or D) swallow vs redden (either 0 or negative 20-40)

Harvey V Krak          30

I have D Swallow, so would be on the 20-40 disadvantage, but A.Kraks won't be playing so he'd be picking between Matera, McKernan & Cam Richo...so should get the wood on him there...
You don't think dropping N.Roo on a downward plunge is the right thing to do? The "get out while I still can" thinking is kicking in...I have been looking at the league teams I'm playing in the next 5-6 weeks and the all have N.Roo, so worst case scenario is our players cancel eachother out...

[Windigo]

People must be desperate if they're getting rid of Nick after just 5 games.

I'm keeping him, he was bought as a keeper and he will stay as a keeper for the rest of the season....Unless he really starts busting on 50 odds. But right now, wouldn't even contemplate it. But that's just me.

[joshas182]

Ok, so if I go without making the suggested changes, how does my team look (with my premo Pie players on)?
Obvious one's would be a change to Duigan as he's reaching his BE and A.Otten is out 1-3 weeks. Trade out for B.Jacobs/Hibberd/L.Thompson?
Cam Richo a dud, or if Krak's drops the ball again... trade out in a few weeks for Mzungu?
Any other tweaks?

[Ziplock]

Keep nick voldt. Yeah, those trades seem solid, imo, most people will be doign something along those lines.

[joshas182]

Alright...new angle...so keeping N.Voldt and knowing that Bulldogs/Sydney this week will tag, keeping Goodes and/or Keefe to possible low scores....trade one of them --> Chappy and still D.Thomas --> Ellard to get enough cash for it?

[Ziplock]

but... premiums... is it necessary to trade out a premium?