Defensive Pressure and the Downfall of the Running Defender

[Bluke]

Defensive Pressure and the Downfall of the Running Defender
Written by Bluke

Over the last few weeks we have seen the downfall of a number of blue chip premium defenders, notably Brendon Goddard, Paul Duffield, Greg Broughton, Nathan Lovett-Murray, Graham Johncock, Andrew Mackie, and Sam Gilbert. With such an array of talent well down on last year’s average points per game (PPG), we have to consider what underlying causes may be to blame?

While we can attribute some of these players loss of scoring potential to positional/role changes as well as to injury, I feel that we can posit a large proportion of the blame on the advent of the ‘defensive press.’ The defensive press sees forward players zoning off their opponents and then getting numbers around the ball at kick-ins and inside 50 movements in order to lock the ball into the sides forward 50. This is achieved by applying tackling pressure in order to create a turnover.

At first thought, one would think that more play in the forward 50 would mean more scoring opportunities for defenders; however such a hasty conclusion can be considered incorrect and lacks foresight. If we consider the strategy now being employed by a number of clubs to beat the defensive press, then we can begin to see why this is the case. Quite often, rather than run the ball out of the defensive 50 using multiple handballs and kicks between running defenders (or a ‘quarterback’) teams are electing to kick the ball long and down the line, or long through the corridor to a tall marking option. The reasons for this are twofold; first, if a team attempts to run the ball out of their defensive 50 they expose themselves to the other side’s defensive press. Second, the more possessions employed to clear the ball, the more chances there are of a defender turning the ball over.

In essence, long kicks out of defence are therefore the most efficient way of clearing the zone. Over the weekend a number of teams employed this tactic to beat the zone (Shannon Hurn kicked long through the corridor to Cox with effect). So, what then does this mean for our premium running defenders? I believe the proof is in the pudding, clearly their scoring potential is down on last year because they are being utilised less in an offensive role. Rather, midfielders and high half forwards (Jack Darling, Buddy Franklin, Nat Fyfe, Andrew Embley) are being utilised up the ground to take big marks, or break the pack in order to beat the defensive press and push the ball forward.

What does this all mean? I think we can draw two main conclusions from the advent of the defensive press in 2011. Firstly, running defenders output has suffered, and; secondly, forwards are scoring more consistently without kicking bags of goals. With the ball locked into the forward lines of clubs employing the defensive press, it is obvious that tackling forwards (Dawes, Kennedy, Darling, Mayne, Ballantyne) are going lift the bottom end of their scoring potential off of the 50 - 60 mark and up to the 70 - 80 mark, because no longer are they solely relying on goals to score their points. Obviously their output will be higher if they do score goals, but I believe we will see a lot less fluctuation in the prices of forwards than we have seen in the past due to the forward press.

Nb. Apologies for the overabundance of Eagles and Dockers players as examples, I only managed to watch two games on the weekend so those examples are fresh in my mind.

[Archer11]

I wish I got a dollar for every time I saw a long bomb down the corridor to Sandi on the weekend.

[nostradamus]

Great write up Bluke, l think your absolutely spot on. lt'll be interesting to see how tactics evolve to counter this......must admit that l'm loving the return of the long kick, and the increase in contested marks and possessions

[Bluke]

Yea, I think its slightly amusing amd ironic that the AFL has brought in so many rules to try and bring back positional man on man battles and the classic pack mark, and yet its a coaching strategy that seems to have achieved what their rules could not. 

[whit0774]

top post bluke, keep up the good stuff

[ronl]

Great write-up, Bluke, a lot of merit in what you say.  Dustin Fletcher may now play until he's 50!

[Chelskiman]

Dustin Fletcher may now play until he's 50!

Kill me now. :|

[nostradamus]

bang

[deekay]

nice bluke! spot on i think... hurts when you have those defenders aswel!!

[Bluke]

Yep, or you spent extra coin on your defenders this year over other areas of the ground.

[TMurphBROWNLOW]

Dustin Fletcher may now play until he's 50!

Kill me now. :|

that tackle he laid on garlett brought tears to my eyes ;')

[Memphistopheles]

So the idea then is to buy players listed as defenders who play in/get time in the midfield (God/Gibbs/Grimes) or as forwards?

[j959]

great analysis Bluke, someone posted your post on DT Talk.

not sure why the first poster didn't acknowledge the source though??

[matt1985]

Awesome read Bluke! Good work!

[valkorum]

great analysis Bluke, someone posted your post on DT Talk.

Yeh I saw that as well
http://dreamteamtalk.com/2011/04/19/trade-talk-tuesday-2/comment-page-1/#comment-73786