Brownlow Predictions Round 24: Judd to win, but wait there is more

[Usman]

usman, you havnt given goodes many votes, but the bookies basically have him 2nd favourite. is that something you have looked at?
also have you placed your bets yet and if so r u willing to share ;D

tab have opened a few more exotics and a bet im looking at is a 3-leg multi for H2H, 
mitchell to beat boyd
watson to beat martin
cox to beat black        all up pays $3.96   your thoughts on that?

also a group bet im looking at  ruck group (leuenburger,hille,mumford,sandi,naitanui)  mumford at $2.75
by your scoring that seems pretty safe
   most team votes, cotchin(richmond) $1.90
                            swallow(north) $1.50
                            westhoff(port) $3.00    and they ofcourse are all single bets

Those bets all look good. However Martin is a major threat to cotchin and gray to westoff. I'm going to put my bets on to igbt and will the. Let you know what I did :)
Thanks to everyone for the encouragement.

[Usman]

Ok so if you didn't make sense of that message last night it was meant to say I was putting bets on last night. I did only on trifectas and quinellas as I think that is were the most value is if your bold enough. With trifectas tabsportsebet which I'd the agency I used only gives combinations for 5 different players Judd, pendles, Murphy, swan, and goodes. Ally he value is obviously in combinations without Judd in the top 3 so I placed a few bets on combinations involving pendles, Murphy an swan as I think goodeseys yearly be a tiny bit overhyped because he has been the in form player of the comp the last 5-7 rounds but before that he most Lilly won't poll too much. However I did place one bet with a goodes combination to come third at $501. In terms of quinellas I just went with really unlikely ones like Priddis winning Thompson second and stuff like that and put $1 on them why not they are paying $2001 and if priddis steals votes off cox, shuey, embley and Kerr who knows? He was very consistent and that always helps. Another bet that I didn't do but is very good value IMO is Thompson to finish in the top 5 at $11

[Justin Bieber]

Thompson should rack up the votes at Adelaide so good luck there 8). I'd love to see Priddis finish high with the Eagles performing once again.

Goodes should poll well later rounds but I can't remember earlier rounds :-[.

Good luck with the betting fellas, hopefully somebody wins big!

[upthemaidens]

yeah i like thompson aswell, not many crows players will take votes  even thought adelaide didnt win many games, it has to be worth a small wager.
  my concern with place bets(or more so top 5)  is that if lets say 4th to 7th(3-4players) finish with 21 votes than the bet doesnt get paid out in full, cause it will be split up depending on how many tie.
  murphy/swan quinella looks good(off top of my head) the odds are like $81 or so

[ScubaSteve02]

Did a quick 3,2,1 after each game this year and ended up with:

Judd           -27
Pendlebury - 27
Swan         - 26
Goodes      - 24
Boyd          - 24

HALFWAY:

Watson      - 14
Pendlebury - 14
Judd          - 13

VALUE BETS:

Rockliff - (Brisbane most votes) @ $5.50 (started @ $10)
Swan - (Top 5) @ $2 (surely!)
Pendlebury/Swan - (Quinella) @ $41 (possible)

[North Melbournes Finest]

Wow Scuba if we ended up with your points total that'd probably be the most exciting Brownlow in years. I hope it happens as well, Pendlebury and Judd are terrific footballers.

[Justin Bieber]

I prefer Boyd on top but will be hard :P.

Lets hope for a cracking count this season!

[madskill55]

Did a quick 3,2,1 after each game this year and ended up with:

Judd           -27
Pendlebury - 27
Swan         - 26
Goodes      - 24
Boyd          - 24

HALFWAY:

Watson      - 14
Pendlebury - 14
Judd          - 13

VALUE BETS:

Rockliff - (Brisbane most votes) @ $5.50 (started @ $10)
Swan - (Top 5) @ $2 (surely!)
Pendlebury/Swan - (Quinella) @ $41 (possible)

Scuba Steve, Where does Mitchell fit into your polling scheme mate?

Some other questions that could be answered:
1)Whats better value: Swan for top 5 @ 2.00 OR pendles at 2.25 for top 3?
2)If we bet $100 on pendles for the win at 7/1, and he ties it with juddy as shown in scuba steve's example, does that mean the payout is 350?
3) Say if we use the example of judd and pendles tie at 27 all, and swan comes 3rd.. the judd/pendles/swan trifecta is 13/1 whislt pendles/judd/swan is $26, does that mean that both the payouts will be halved and given out?

[ScubaSteve02]

I had Mitchell just outside this with 21 votes. As for better value it's pretty similar really I went $100 on pendlebury to place @$2.75 but swan should make top 5 I reckon mate. U will get half the amount if he ties and as for the trifecta I'm not sure?

[CrowsFan]

Can't join that cos of stupid firewall issues, but what do you think of this multi I made?

Most votes from their club: Fyfe, A. Swallow, Gray, Cotchin and Priddis. Gave me odds of 22.99

Am I in with a shot?

[MTTY]

Can't join that cos of stupid firewall issues, but what do you think of this multi I made?

Most votes from their club: Fyfe, A. Swallow, Gray, Cotchin and Priddis. Gave me odds of 22.99

Am I in with a shot?

You certainly are CF, i had all of them winning their teams votes bar Priddis.

[CrowsFan]

I'm guessing you had Cox?
I was thinking Cox, but for some reason he has never polled well at the Brownlow even when he was in his peak years so thought I would go Priddis instead.
I chucked 50 on that so could be in for a big gain :)

[MTTY]

I'm guessing you had Cox?
I was thinking Cox, but for some reason he has never polled well at the Brownlow even when he was in his peak years so thought I would go Priddis instead.
I chucked 50 on that so could be in for a big gain :)

Yeah i think it will go either way and Embley will also poll generously.

[upthemaidens]

ok well i did my quick count and this is my top 13, the way i do it its more of a guide than exact count...
1, swan
2, pendlebury
3,(tie) judd
          mitchell
          cox
          boyd
7, dal santo
8, priddis
9, murphy
10,(tie) thompson
            selwood
            goodes
13, watson

leader after rd.12 ..
  murphy
  watson
  selwood
pendlebury

[ossie85]

http://www.fanfooty.com.au/forum/index.php/topic,42618.0.html

Friendly reminder!

Go Pendles :)