Brownlow Predictions Round 24: Judd to win, but wait there is more

[Usman]

TAB now has multis on most team votes. However there is little to no value. Pathetic odds not even worth it.

[Hippo]

Are you sure Usman?

[upthemaidens]

i think it depends what state you're in,, SA tab doesnt have any multi's  atm

now just alittle advice for anyone betting on outright winner(on tab)  before placing your bet on have a look at the odds for which team the winner comes from;  for example  goodes is $6, but sydney is $6 aswell. i undersand that it makes little difference(cause goodes is probably the only one from swans that can win), but why not cover the whole sydney team for the same price as just goodes.  and this goes for boyd/WB both $13,   ablett/GC $15,  also judd is $1.85, but u can back the whole carlton team at $1.65.
  so just something to think about

[ossie85]

http://www.fanfooty.com.au/forum/index.php/topic,42618.msg550824/topicseen.html#new

Time is now guys :)

Put your votes to the test!

Some brilliant stuff this year

[Usman]

After much hard work i have finalized my second lot of brownlow predictions using next years scoring system. Extremely interesting results, the most notable Judd not in the top 3 which i find hard to beleive but im confident, and will stick by it.

28 Swan   
28 Murphy   
26 Mitchell*   
25 Pendlebury   
23 Judd   
23 Thompson
22 Franklin   
22 Boyd   
21 Dal Santo   
21 Moloney   
20 Ablett   
20 Cox   
19 Goodes   
18 Swallow   
17 Watson   

Reasons why i like this phantom brownlow better is from a historical stand point. from my first predictions the top 10 had a total of 258 while this one has 239 which seems alot more realistic. it also incorporates 8 more polling players and just as a whole seems more realistic. Thoughts?

2010
30 Judd
26 Ablett
24 Swan
21 Pendlebury
21 Selwood
20 Sandilands
20 Boyd
19 Hayes
16 watson
16 hodge
Total 213

2009
30 Ablett
22 Judd
20 Hayes
19 Black
19 Brown
17 Dal santo
17 Goodes
16 Selwood
15 Riewoldt
15 Murphy
Total 190

2008
24 Cooney
23 Black
22 Richardson
22 Ablett
21 Goodes
20 Franklin
19 Selwood
17 Harvey
17 Pavlich
16 Judd
Total 201

[upthemaidens]

usman, you havnt given goodes many votes, but the bookies basically have him 2nd favourite. is that something you have looked at?
also have you placed your bets yet and if so r u willing to share ;D

tab have opened a few more exotics and a bet im looking at is a 3-leg multi for H2H, 
mitchell to beat boyd
watson to beat martin
cox to beat black        all up pays $3.96   your thoughts on that?

also a group bet im looking at  ruck group (leuenburger,hille,mumford,sandi,naitanui)  mumford at $2.75
by your scoring that seems pretty safe
   most team votes, cotchin(richmond) $1.90
                            swallow(north) $1.50
                            westhoff(port) $3.00    and they ofcourse are all single bets

[PowerBug]

westhoff(port) $3.00    and they ofcourse are all single bets

You reckon he'll score more than Gray? Gray on of those players who could potentially steal a three in our wins, and he should poll either 2 or 3 in the Bombers loss.

[navy.blueANDwhite]

usman, you havnt given goodes many votes, but the bookies basically have him 2nd favourite. is that something you have looked at?
also have you placed your bets yet and if so r u willing to share ;D

tab have opened a few more exotics and a bet im looking at is a 3-leg multi for H2H, 
mitchell to beat boyd
watson to beat martin
cox to beat black        all up pays $3.96   your thoughts on that?

also a group bet im looking at  ruck group (leuenburger,hille,mumford,sandi,naitanui)  mumford at $2.75
by your scoring that seems pretty safe
   most team votes, cotchin(richmond) $1.90
                            swallow(north) $1.50
                            westhoff(port) $3.00    and they ofcourse are all single bets

where the hell did you find that???

[upthemaidens]

westhoff(port) $3.00    and they ofcourse are all single bets

You reckon he'll score more than Gray? Gray on of those players who could potentially steal a three in our wins, and he should poll either 2 or 3 in the Bombers loss.

the problem with backing anyone from port is that they wont get many votes full stop which in turn means theres more chance of 2 or more players getting the same amount of votes. which means the payout gets split up.
can westoff beat gray? i dont know, i looked at the games we (port) won and westoff was in our top 3 in a few of them. i wont be putting very much on it thats for sure,,  boak will be the other main contender aswell

[upthemaidens]

usman, you havnt given goodes many votes, but the bookies basically have him 2nd favourite. is that something you have looked at?
also have you placed your bets yet and if so r u willing to share ;D

tab have opened a few more exotics and a bet im looking at is a 3-leg multi for H2H, 
mitchell to beat boyd
watson to beat martin
cox to beat black        all up pays $3.96   your thoughts on that?

also a group bet im looking at  ruck group (leuenburger,hille,mumford,sandi,naitanui)  mumford at $2.75
by your scoring that seems pretty safe
   most team votes, cotchin(richmond) $1.90
                            swallow(north) $1.50
                            westhoff(port) $3.00    and they ofcourse are all single bets

where the hell did you find that???

navy that is at  TAB (SA)  dont know if its the same in other states

[Hippo]

Top Notch job this yr Usman!!!!

Hi have made my bets fwiw:

Pendles WIN
Pendles PLACE
Pendles TOP 5

Murphy leader after rd 12

One $100 multi bet:

Boyd
Priddis
NDS
Martin
Westhoff
Swallow
Selwood
Fyfe
Watson
Pendles

48/1

GOOD LUCK ALL

[The Silent Partner]

Hi Usman,
Good work buddy be interesting to see how your system new and old holds up. Have you been approached by any of the betting agencys re' your formulae.................

[upthemaidens]

Top Notch job this yr Usman!!!!

Hi have made my bets fwiw:

Pendles WIN
Pendles PLACE
Pendles TOP 5

Murphy leader after rd 12

One $100 multi bet:

Boyd
Priddis
NDS
Martin
Westhoff
Swallow
Selwood
Fyfe
Watson
Pendles

48/1

GOOD LUCK ALL

hippo  what site were you able to put on that multi-bet?   if it was TAB then what state?
cheers and good luck i see you have gone for a few tight calls there  martin/westoff/fyfe,  but if it comes in  oh baby

[Hippo]

Hey Upthe

I saw that IASbet were allowing multis on Monday so i quickly placed one on

but from what i can tell it only took a few hrs for IAS to cap the multi legs to 5 max, i got in with 30 min to spare before this time.

i just went with who i thought would get up as i had already spent my Brownlow stake so didn't have the funds to hedge all the 50/50 teams

Makes the night much more interesting than just following Pendles

[upthemaidens]

Hey Upthe

I saw that IASbet were allowing multis on Monday so i quickly placed one on

but from what i can tell it only took a few hrs for IAS to cap the multi legs to 5 max, i got in with 30 min to spare before this time.

i just went with who i thought would get up as i had already spent my Brownlow stake so didn't have the funds to hedge all the 50/50 teams

Makes the night much more interesting than just following Pendles

cheers thanks for that,  even a 5-leg multi would be ok
  i really think pendles for leader after rd.12 is too good to pass up, at like $7 or so.
im  having a hard time convincing myself that judd wont win it again, but hate his odds... oh the torture of it all   lol