Brownlow Predictions Round 24: Judd to win, but wait there is more

[madskill55]

Like Usman, Im doing a range for best case and worst case scenario for most of the top place getters and here is what ive come up with so far... I think 2nd and 3rd will finish between pendles, murphy, swan and boyd imo

Eg...Usman 20-35 (28)         * First number relates to the minimum amount of votes this player can poll whilst the second number relates to the maximum number of votes. The number in the bracket is the average of the numbers (so what the player should be roughly on)

LEADERBOARD
Judd      26-36 (31)

Mitchell   23- 32 (28)

Pendles  20-31 (26)

Swan      18-29 (24)

Boyd      19-27 (23)

Murphy   16-28 (22)

Ablett      15-25 (20)

Selwood   15-24 (19.5)

Priddis      15-24 (19.5)

Dal Santo 15-23  (19)

Goodes    16-22 (19)

Cox         16-21 (18.5)

Thompson 15-22 (18.5)

[Usman]

Sorry guys a bit late this week

Round 22

Haw v Carl
3   Lewis
2   Simpson
1   Hale

WCE v Ess   
3   Kennedy
2   Priddis
1   Shuey
   
Adel v GC
3   Thompson
2   Ablett
1   Tippett

Kang v Fre
3   Swallow
2   Wells
1   Pederson
   
Coll v BL
3   Swan
2   Cloke
1   Redden
   
Syd v StK
3   Mumford
2   Kennedy
1   Goodes

WB v Port
3   Boyd
2   Hall
1   Tutt
   
Rich v Melb
3   Sylvia
2   Martin
1   Tuck

Leaderboard
32 Judd
29 Mitchell
25 Pendlebury
25 Murphy
24 Boyd
23 Priddis
23 Swan
22 Dal Santo
21 Ablett
20 Swallow

[LaHug]

I know Sylvia had a great game, but do you think the fact that he has reported during the game will cost him votes? It is a "Best & Fairest" award and the votes do come from the umpires. Just wondering if that has affected vote getting in the past and whether or not you think it will now?

[plugz19]

I know Sylvia had a great game, but do you think the fact that he has reported during the game will cost him votes? It is a "Best & Fairest" award and the votes do come from the umpires. Just wondering if that has affected vote getting in the past and whether or not you think it will now?

imo he was a clear standout as best on ground
maybe the umpires would side to the player who wasn't reported if it was a line ball decision, but think sylvia was easliy the best player on the field for that to make a difference

[2 large cokes]

pendles or swan the 3 tonight?

[bisazc887]

 Swan seemed more damaging to me and just blw the game appart at the start, yet Pendles finished with more stats....Mmm Swan for for me but you never know

[Spite]

swan was the game changer it seemed...
Maybe something like
3. Swan
2. Pendles
1. Krak?

[LaHug]

swan was the game changer it seemed...
Maybe something like
3. Swan
2. Pendles
1. Krak?

Aside from the fact he was subbed, I'd give Leon the 1.

[Usman]

its a tough one because the umps generally like Pendlebury better and so do i, and on this occassion the scoring system does aswell. Which is rare because it usually suits Swan down to the ground.

3 Pendlebury
2 Swan
1 Beams

[bisazc887]

 Silly old CB seem intent on recking the odds even though they dont even allow multi-ing,...Probably there way of tring to get the punters who wiped them out 2 years ago back by determing the odds tab open at because i cant see too many putting huuuge amounts on someone 1 out at 1.05 and if they do bank interest is far less risky. Been sly in my books 

[upthemaidens]

Silly old CB seem intent on recking the odds even though they dont even allow multi-ing,...Probably there way of tring to get the punters who wiped them out 2 years ago back by determing the odds tab open at because i cant see too many putting huuuge amounts on someone 1 out at 1.05 and if they do bank interest is far less risky. Been sly in my books

who dont allow multi? all bookies?
also $1.05 or 5% would be per year for bank interest where as the bet would be per that one night,  but yes would be a pretty silly bet to back someone at $1.10..
 
side note; i was at the port vs gold coast game this year and a punter in the bar put a $1000 bet on port to win at $1.04
so 1k to win 40 bucks,, and as we all know they lost.   if u have 1k spare  whats the 40 bucks gunna do? buy a steak dinner? some people have more dollars then sense

[bisazc887]

Silly old CB seem intent on recking the odds even though they dont even allow multi-ing,...Probably there way of tring to get the punters who wiped them out 2 years ago back by determing the odds tab open at because i cant see too many putting huuuge amounts on someone 1 out at 1.05 and if they do bank interest is far less risky. Been sly in my books

who dont allow multi? all bookies?
also $1.05 or 5% would be per year for bank interest where as the bet would be per that one night,  but yes would be a pretty silly bet to back someone at $1.10..
 
side note; i was at the port vs gold coast game this year and a punter in the bar put a $1000 bet on port to win at $1.04
so 1k to win 40 bucks,, and as we all know they lost.   if u have 1k spare  whats the 40 bucks gunna do? buy a steak dinner? some people have more dollars then sense

They dont allow multi-s and your last line is my exact point. I can understand those odds with a agency that allows you to multi up to a bigger divy (even though you have an all up bet/risk) but for a company that offers 1 outs at those odds is going to be holding alot of $ for it to be even worth anyone having a go....Not saying the bets are unrealistic that they should be hot hot favs and yes i know if i dont like them dont bet and as i said i wont at those odds 1 out, but they are bookies odds in more ways than 1

[madskill55]

has anyone been doing any reading/browsing over the web? other sites have said that multibets for team votes will not be happening this year over any agencies whilst otherse have said the CEO of TAB will make a decision come friday regarding the nature of being able to make multibets? Before everyone starts making their own locks and own punts, make sure they allow multibets!!!

[bisazc887]

has anyone been doing any reading/browsing over the web? other sites have said that multibets for team votes will not be happening this year over any agencies whilst otherse have said the CEO of TAB will make a decision come friday regarding the nature of being able to make multibets? Before everyone starts making their own locks and own punts, make sure they allow multibets!!!

I reckon Tab will. Theres very few bets that they dont let you multi... No doubt they got cleaned in some of the multis last year because all favs pretty much came in (thats not always a guarentee to happen and if it didnt they would make big $),They also made a stack off everyone backing swan which would have made their bottom line a bit better. Also there are plenty on other sites that think they are rocket scientests by some of their picks (which are already sub 1.30  ::) )  and they are happy to spin garbage untill they have their bets on. Id say 90% they will,....if not there would have to be some very attractive bets for me to even look as i dont back dogs or horses at $3 so im not about to start taking $1.40 1 out

[Usman]

Getting through rd 23 as i form a new scoring system for next year. The system is likely to incorporate efficiency and value outliers. eg: Gibbs kicking 4 in a low scoring game against the roos this year, the 4 goals would be valued highly, as there were not many goals kicked. It will also value kicks over handballs as there is a strong correlation between efficiency and type of disposal. Im still tinkering with efficency and contested posessions as there is quite a strong correlation between a higher contested possession count meaning a lower efficiency. I am trialing the system on rd 23 results and so far its looking pretty good. This system should help defenders and outside midfielders to become more prominent in my voting which is one of the goals of establishing a new formula.