Brownlow Predictions Round 24: Judd to win, but wait there is more

[Usman]

For those thinking that the polling is fairly high i am doing a cross analysis of best and worst case scenario for each of the top 20 players on my list it takes a while so far i have done Judd with a worst case of 24 and a best case of 37 bringing his vote tally down to 30 (30.5). this is how i decide my final votes as it accounts for all possibilites. So even though i have Judd on 34 votes (32 on this thread, due to 2 games votting being altered today were i gave him one vote extra v coll rd 17 and stk rd 7) in years gone by this analysis has been far more accurate at predicting overall votes than just prediciting votes.I think we can all agree 30-31 votes is more realistic than judd getting 34 by round 21. Cant wait to post a full list of results at seasons end. Cheers

[Usman]

VERY INTERESTING NOTE!!

Just finished Murphy's best and worst case scenario (as it was easy to do alongside Judd's) and it has moved his tally UP to 27!!! with a worst case of 19 and a best of 35 :o. first time ever someone's tally has gone up after using this method. A top 3 bet may provide some value here.

[upthemaidens]

out of interest  usman  do you take into account  umpire relationships with a particular player when giving your votes?
  i.e. black being a umpires pet compared to lets say milne who is just an arsehole :) 
or do you just go on the stats as they stand
  and again thankyou on your work

[Usman]

the stats are usually a good indicator and i watch games when i can to get the best idea of who should get votes. in terms of player relationships i wouldnt say that the umpires love the players characteristics its more how good they look to them in terms of playing ability. Because players like Black and Goodes always seem to poll in matches were it might have been a surpirse, i always check to see if their scores are close (within 10 points) to those that on my system is close to others that 'should' poll and i tend to put these players ahead. On the weekend officials at the Q clash did the hard work for me giving Black BOG when he probably didnt deserve it through my scoring system, but thats the sort of player he is, eye catching and classy.

[Usman]

here is an up to date leaderboard with both my progressive votes that i have posted on this thread and the votes analysed with best and worst case scenario then re-adjusted. (for the record i use the adjusted votes for the final count but i wait till the end of the year to do it in baulk as its easier) the left column of votes is the adjusted compared to the right column which the leaderboard from this thread. (On the Thread votes You may notice a few changes like Murphy going from 23 votes to 25 this is because when re-analysing each game i have awarded him 1 vote more in 2 seperate games where i felt he deserved it.
          Adjusted      Thread
Judd    32   34
Mitchell   29   29
Murphy   26   25
Pendlebury   25   25
Dal Santo   21   22
Boyd   21   21
Swan   21   20
Priddis   19   21
Ablett   19   19
Selwood   19   19
Thomas   17   18
Cox   16   19

[korza]

Great work Usman and the mad one.

[Hippo]

So what i got out of the wend just briefly is:

• Pendles is no longer a lock, Swan keeps on keeping on
• Goodes is now a lock after a massive last qtr
• Swallow is looking better and better each week, one more of those games and imo he is a lock
• Another polling game too Priddis.
• S Thompson is a freak
• Boyd cannot lose his team votes
• Martin and Cotchen could be neck and neck now

[Usman]

Summed it up well hippo I'll have the votes up by tomorrow. If pendles get rested it could be a worry but I'm still fairly confident he will beat swan

[upthemaidens]

centrebet have thompson at $81 to win overall, doesnt that seem like a really good price?
no one at the crows to take votes off him,  ofcourse adelaide didnt win many games, but still 80/1

[Usman]

culd make top ten dont think he is in contention for the brownlow though. he gathered 44 touches in a game last year and didnt poll from memory

[upthemaidens]

culd make top ten dont think he is in contention for the brownlow though. he gathered 44 touches in a game last year and didnt poll from memory

yeah i dont think he has much chance either,but sometimes the odds can be to tempting ;D
i did back brad johnson a few years back to get top 3, he was at like $501 or something massive....
  ...he ended up not polling any votes  lol

nah i think  judd will take it out, just like to see if theres some good odds.
  maybe top 3 i'll drop a penny on thompson and dal santo, other than that stick to team and group votes

[Usman]

i have not checked this week but priddis was $21 to place last week. You never know?

[bisazc887]

 Some nice work above

Gee its going to be a year for the big outlayer though IMO. (Quite) Alot of the team winners are already well below $1.40 and if they get anymore BOG's, then the value will keep deteriating. Still value in the teams with it between 2 but cant see it being quite like last year which is fine if the locks all come in :(

[upthemaidens]

Some nice work above

Gee its going to be a year for the big outlayer though IMO. (Quite) Alot of the team winners are already well below $1.40 and if they get anymore BOG's, then the value will keep deteriating. Still value in the teams with it between 2 but cant see it being quite like last year which is fine if the locks all come in :(

there might be some good value in group bets,, a couple of years ago when mitch clarke had a good season, he was in a group of 2nd string rucks; like hille,ottens(them type) and he was around $3..  that was a good bet, pity i didnt put more on it

[madskill55]

Round 21

Stk v Coll
3   Davis
2   Swan
1   Montagna
   
Carl v Fre
3   Judd
2   Gibbs
1   Betts

Haw v Port
3   Rioli
2   Franklin
1   Mitchell
   
Ess v WB   
3   Stanton
2   Hurley
1   Ryder
     
BL v GC
3   Black
2   Leurenberger
1   Rockliff
   
Melb v WCE
3   Embley
2   Priddis
1   Gaff
   
Rich v Syd   
3   Houli
2   Cotchin
1   Deledio
   
Adel  v Geel
3   Sloane
2   Kelly
1   Corey

Round 22

Carl Vs Hawks
3   Lewis
2   Simpson
1   Gibson
   
GC Vs Ade
3   Thompson
2   Jacobs
1   Ablett

WC Vs Ess
3   Kerr
2   Kennedy
1   Shuey (maybe Priddis here)
   
Coll Vs Bris
3   Swan
2   Cloke
1   Rockcliff
     
NM VS Freo
3   Swallow
2   Harvey
1   Wells
   
Syd Vs Stk
3   Mumford
2   Goodes
1   Shaw
   
Port Vs WB
3   Boyd
2   Tutt
1   Hall
   
Melb Vs Rich
3   Sylvia
2   Martin
1   Foley

Leaderboard
judd   29-30
mitchell   28
pendles   25
swan   23
boyd   22
murphy   21-22
goodes   20-21
ablett   19-20
selwood   19
dal santo   19
cox    18-19
thompson   18
priddis   17-18