Brownlow Predictions Round 24: Judd to win, but wait there is more

[Spite]

Didn't they also pay out for Gold Coast finishing bottom?

Yeah I am quite sure they did after they got thumped by like Essendon or something, reeeeeeeaaaaalllly early in the season!!!!

[2 large cokes]

really interested to see how Mitchell polls in the brownlow this year. has been I'n ridiculous for this season. almost every win barring a couple of early games from hawthorn he has been a standout best. i no he can't win and will be a hard task to get close to juddy but imagine if he won and was dq'd for a bloody reprimand. what an embarrassment that would be to the stupid joke of a system the call the match review panel.

[Holz]

Didn't they also pay out for Gold Coast finishing bottom?

Yeah I am quite sure they did after they got thumped by like Essendon or something, reeeeeeeaaaaalllly early in the season!!!!

i wish they had an optino for GC not to finsh bottom. As soon as they paid that out i wanted ot bet against it.

[Usman]

Usman's Rd 20 votes
StK v Fre
3   Dal santo
2   Mzungu
1   Koschitzke
   
Geel v GC
3   Johnson
2   Selwood
1   Christensen
   
Carl v Melb
3   Judd
2   Gibbs
1   Scotland
   
Coll v Port
3   Beams
2   Swan
1   Blair   
Ess v Syd
3   Goodes
2   Watson
1   Ryder
   
Adel v BL
3   Thompson
2   Rockliff
1   Van Berlo
   
Haw v Kang   
3   Ziebell
2   Mitchell
1   Sewell
   
WCE v Rich   
3   Natanui
2   Shuey
1   Kerr

Usman's Leaderboard

29 Judd
28 Mitchell
25 Pendlebury
23 Murphy
22 Dal Santo
20 Boyd
19 Ablett
19 Thomas
19 Selwood
18 Priddis
18 Swan

*Denotes ineligable

[Hippo]

Hey Usman i think yo have the Pies and the Hawks game wrong somewhat

as much as i want Pendles too poll i don't think he will, change Pendles too Blair and i think that would be right

I did not watch the game but whats the reasoning for Zeibell to get the 3 votes? McMahon had more possies and 8 marks.... Z had 0 marks + the 3 votes will come from Hawks... i think he would get 2 MAX

i agree with the rest

[Usman]

there are a lot of high polling players in my predicted medal count this year but its hard to argue against why they should poll any lower. of the top 5 all Judd, Mitchell, Pendlebury, Murphy and Dal Santo have had stellar seasons and all have at least one season of promising polling history.

Judd:
has polled 30 twice in his career both times taking home the Brownlow and he seems set to do this again with a season few could argue as his best. Last year he missed 3 games through suspension and still polled 30 this year he has been even better and Carlton have won more games, why shouldnt he poll as highly or even higher than last year.

Mitchell:
Cant win it due to a reprimand earlier in the year that cost him brownlow eligability. Many beleive the umps wont give him votes cause they know he cant win it. I say you have to give him the votes if he was in the best 3 on the field and that he has been regularly. Arguably Hawthorns best season since his career began and he has polled 13 or more votes for the last 5 seasons in a row. He is a machine and will finish in the top 5 this season its weird to say but hopefully he doesnt poll anymore or he could be moaning WHAT IF!! ...... (the match review panel werent so stupid) on brownlow night.

Pendlebury:
Polled 21 votes last year. This year however Collingwood have been even more dominant, and he has not had to contend with the same Swan as last year. I have him polling on 12 seperate occasions beaten only by Judd's 13 ocassions. Why Shouldnt he poll higher than ever?

Murphy:
started the season SO well, i was almost convinced he was going to win by round 13 were he had 22 votes. Since then he has polled only one vote in the last 7 rounds and has a bye coming up (with Judd) which makes it hard for him to come back and win it. but should almost be garuanteed a top 5 finish despite this. Carlton has had by far tis best season in his career and he was able to poll 15 votes in 09 when Carlton won 13 games. A very interesting stat from this years predictions is he has only 2 (3) votes, the lowest of any of the top 16 players. However he does have by far the most 2 votes with a total of 8 3 more than any other player. For those on the Murphy Bandwagon im not sure if this is a good thing or not, 2's can mean he could poll even higher than i predicted or he has been good but may poll less or not at all, as 2 votes are harder to predict than 3 votes.

Dal Santo:
A traditionally high poller Dal Santo has polled over 16 votes on three ocassions with a high of 18 in 05 for a top 3 finish. hes form in the last 11 has been nothing short of exeptional polling a potential 20 votes in this time. For me he is the main reason St Kilda have found winning form. one upside for Dal Santo this year is most of St kildas stars have not been playing well as well as Lenny Hayes being out for the entire season, meaning he is winning games of his own classy boots and is coming home like a rocket just like his team. Expect him to be a late bolter and if he and St Kilda keep up this form anything could happen currently in the beest form ever over the past 6 rounds if my predictions come true, with 16 votes from the last 6 rounds. ASTONISHING.

[Usman]

Hey Usman i think yo have the Pies and the Hawks game wrong somewhat

as much as i want Pendles too poll i don't think he will, change Pendles too Blair and i think that would be right

I did not watch the game but whats the reasoning for Zeibell to get the 3 votes? McMahon had more possies and 8 marks.... Z had 0 marks + the 3 votes will come from Hawks... i think he would get 2 MAX

I only watched a small portion of the Hawthorn v Kang game (10 mins) so i had to go by my scoring and Ziebell was easily the highest scorer with 191 over Mitchells 158. How you ask? Ziebells 13 clearences says it all. 13 times he cleared the ball from a pack under the umps noses. as for Mcmahon he was next in line for votes actually equal with 121 with sewell i gave it too sewell basically because he played for Hawthorn and they won and i had already given the 3 to Ziebell (but dont tell anyone that ;)) Mcmahons 8 marks are misleading only 2 were contested and because i didnt see the game i assumed they were marks running off his oppenent in the back half possibly when the Kangas were going backwards. Couldnt give him the votes even though his 183 SC score would suggest otherwise we will wait and see if it was a mistake.

the coll v Port game needs to be adjusted unfortuanately for you pendles supporters (me ::)). Blair's 4 goals are probably going to get him over the line i had originally put pendles down with the 1 but then changed it to Blair on another part of the spreadsheet but forgot to finalise it leaving pendles there SORRY GUYS my bad. Thanks everyone who has challenged the votes too, it helps me to go over the games analyse some that i may have not focused on hard enough. Usually i have reasoning this time it was an error on my behalf.

[Hawka]

Mitchell win finish a top i reckon i mite b a bit biast but so many BOGs and not many hawks week in week out would steal votes such as judd and murphy would and pendles,swan.. just rely pissed of he is inelegible :(

[madskill55]

Madskill's Rd 20 votes
StK v Fre
3   Dal santo
2   Mzungu
1   Koschitzke
   
Geel v GC
3   Johnson
2   Selwood
1   Podsiadly
   
Carl v Melb
3   Judd
2   Scotland
1   Gibbs
   
Coll v Port
3   Beams
2   Swan
1   Blair   

Ess v Syd
3   Goodes
2   Watson
1   Ryder
   
Adel v BL
3   Thompson
2   Rockliff
1   Van Berlo
   
Haw v Kang   
3   Mitchell
2   Ziebell
1   Sewell
   
WCE v Rich   
3   Kerr
2   Nic Nat
1   Shuey

Madskill's Leaderboard

26-27 Judd
26-27 Mitchell *
25 Pendlebury
20 Boyd
19-20 Murphy
19-20 Selwood*
19-20 Goodes
19-20 Dal Santo
18-19 Cox
18 Ablett
18 Swan

*Denotes ineligable

[madskill55]

Apparently, Champion Data released their brownlow predictions.
All I know is according to their data Judd is leading on 24, Pendles on 23 and their is a distant gap with Swan and Cox rounding the top 4 out...

If anyone could find the results of the top 10 leaders according to Champion Data, please post them in the discussion. Thanks

P.S- Like I said a couple of posts ago, if you haven't got onto it. Pendles. Place. 2011 Brownlow. Get on it, before its tooo late!!!

[Usman]

Apparently, Champion Data released their brownlow predictions.
All I know is according to their data Judd is leading on 24, Pendles on 23 and their is a distant gap with Swan and Cox rounding the top 4 out...

If anyone could find the results of the top 10 leaders according to Champion Data, please post them in the discussion. Thanks

P.S- Like I said a couple of posts ago, if you haven't got onto it. Pendles. Place. 2011 Brownlow. Get on it, before its tooo late!!!

I saw that, not sure if i agree with thier system though. They give more than 3 people votes per game depending on thier polling history etc... For eg 2.7 for best on 2.2 for the second best etc??? i dont really know how they figure it out it seems wierd though. i know their top 4 was Judd 24 Pendles 23 and Cox and Swan were 16 but dont know the rest either

put your house on pendles to finish top 3 i reckon

[madskill55]

Apparently, Champion Data released their brownlow predictions.
All I know is according to their data Judd is leading on 24, Pendles on 23 and their is a distant gap with Swan and Cox rounding the top 4 out...

If anyone could find the results of the top 10 leaders according to Champion Data, please post them in the discussion. Thanks

P.S- Like I said a couple of posts ago, if you haven't got onto it. Pendles. Place. 2011 Brownlow. Get on it, before its tooo late!!!

I saw that, not sure if i agree with thier system though. They give more than 3 people votes per game depending on thier polling history etc... For eg 2.7 for best on 2.2 for the second best etc??? i dont really know how they figure it out it seems wierd though. i know their top 4 was Judd 24 Pendles 23 and Cox and Swan were 16 but dont know the rest either

put your house on pendles to finish top 3 i reckon

theres an article on afl.com.au about pendles may get rested, its all speculation he may he may not, so thats the only thing but take into account that mitchell is ineligible, judd has a bye to come, the only who could come close is boyd,murphy,dal santo and goodes..

i dont see any other profitable bet to be honest,with the amount of deadset certainties for team votes there wont be much value unless you put in port/north/rich in there...like money will be won there no doubt but not as much as for place i reckon...

at this stage who do we all think will finish top 5 (can include ineligible candidates as well)?

[2 large cokes]

1-5 I'n no particular order

pendles
judd
mitchell
dal santo
murphy

really love the work usman and madskill! i went and chucked a couple of hundys on Pendles for a place today. this next 6-7 weeks is gonna feel like forever now! haha

[ossie85]

http://www.fanfooty.com.au/forum/index.php/topic,42618.0.html

Guys might be interested in this

[cortez]

Geelong has only lost 2 games, could there be a smokey there or just the fact that with Selwood being injured and suspended. That the votes will be shared around. Maybe stevie j as a smokie?