Brownlow Predictions Round 24: Judd to win, but wait there is more

[ossie85]

How about Griffen the Dogs? He has been quiet lately, but reckon he could be All-Aus this year

[Usman]

Great spot Hippo didnt know they had come out yet cant wait to get into it more money to be made  ;D (im not a addicted gambler by the way ::))

[Usman]

Griffen could pose a problem but boyd should be safe

[Usman]

Okeefe at $5.00 good odds wish we could multi  >:(

[Hippo]

How about Griffen the Dogs? He has been quiet lately, but reckon he could be All-Aus this year

Na i don't think so

The highest he has polled in his career in a single year is 10

Boyd has polled over 10 in the last 3 years: 2008 12 votes, 2009 14 votes, 2010 20 votes.... see a pattern here!?
I think Boyd is having his best year to date
add the captaincy of this year to the pros of Boyd
and i think he will poll in a few losing games also ala last week with 40d

and 2 games Griffen is expected to maybe poll 3 in are games were he has to beat Boyd

rd2 Griffen 33d 4t 3goals
rd2 Boyd   32d 3t 2goals

rd14 Griffen 28d 5t 3goals
rd14 Boyd   39d 5t

pt being the main games Griffen is expected to get 3's or 2's are the same games Boyd is expected to get 3's or 2's... then theres Boyds other 35+ games.....

Boyd has this

[Usman]

should have it but Bod looks like shower when he had the ball and Griffen is classy and runs and carry's alot more. griffen also gets his ball in teh foward half alot more than boyd which could make a difference

[Usman]

i have Boyd comfortably in my voting over Griffen, but Griffen is exactly the type of player that can go under my systems radar at times outside smooth midfielder cant measure class in the stats unfortunately

[Usman]

i with you though boyd should definately get most votes at WB

[Hippo]

Yeah i think so

so much so i will have him in every singe bet i place this year

Last year i took a big gamble and used 7 in 100% of bets... this year i think its even more obv of who to pick

[Usman]

I have boyd on 20 and Griffen on 13 i have not done a full analysis on Griffen just yet as i only keep an up to date analysis of my top ~15 and he is literallly the next player in line to get on so i will do it by seasons end. Here is the good and bad news for Boyd.

The Good
He has 4 games polling 3's and 4 polling 2's. (studies from last year that i have completed show that 3 votes are by far the easiest to predict with a strike rate above 80% and im not 100% sure but i dont think there was an ocassion last year when i gave 3 to a player and he didnt actually poll. For obvious reasons one votes are the hardest to predict as there are usually so many players that can get it in the umps eyes i guess.)

In my personal opinion he has had an even better year than last year when he polled 20 votes for a top 6 finish.


The Bad

10 votes in losing games. Nearly all have his best games have been in losing games, and every other game he is competing with griffen for the 3. lets hope the umps give the votes to the Best players on the ground not the players from the winning team for Boyd's and your betting sake.

Loss v Fre 3 votes
Loss v Syd 2 votes
Loss v StK 3 votes
Loss v WCE 2 votes

[Usman]

Judd's powering towards another 3 today, UNBELEIVABLE! will put him on 29 for the year

[CrowsFan]

Sportsbet has already paid out to people who backed Judd to win the Brownlow!! :o
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/sportsbetcomau-pays-out-on-chris-judd-brownlow/story-e6frf9jf-1226110940877

[ossie85]

How ridicolous! Just a marketing strategy.

I remember they paid out on Tiger Woods after day 3 of a golf tournament and he lost

They also paid out the wooden spoon last year for the tigers.

[RiOtChEsS]

so perhaps get ur bets on others ftw ;)

[CrowsFan]

Didn't they also pay out for Gold Coast finishing bottom?